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A View from David Appell

Ivan vs. the Big Easy

The cone of probability for Hurricane Ivan’s strike on the southeastern U.S. now includes New Orleans, and at least one computer model now has the storm going straight over the Big Easy. A Category 5 hurricane strike on New Orleans…

  • September 13, 2004

The cone of probability for Hurricane Ivan’s strike on the southeastern U.S. now includes New Orleans, and at least one computer model now has the storm going straight over the Big Easy. A Category 5 hurricane strike on New Orleans would be an unmitigated disaster; New Orleans sits in a bowl well below sea level, and hasn’t suffered a major storm–here defined as one with winds over 111 mph–since 1969. Ivan is currently at 160 mph, with storm surges in Cuba of 8 feet, and has already killed 68 people. Should the storm reach landfall in New Orleans, that city could be in for a world of hurt unlike anything it’s seen in modern times.

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