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The Science Linking Arctic Warming to This Crazy-Cold Winter

It’s well known that the rapidly warming Arctic is melting sea ice, thawing permafrost, and accelerating sea-level rise. But a growing body of research suggests, counterintuitively, that it could also be amplifying cold snaps, much like the brutal one now freezing the East Coast.

How it works: A number of climate scientists, including Jennifer Francis at Rutgers, believe that rising temperatures and declining sea ice in the Arctic may create a more meandering jet stream. That, in turn, allows elongated troughs of cold air usually trapped in the polar vortex above the North Pole to extend down into the mid-latitudes, creating persistent cold spells and a greater likelihood of snowstorms.

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But: The science still isn’t settled on this topic. Evidence is building that the jet stream is becoming loopier, and that those changes are highly correlated with shifting Arctic conditions. 

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But Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, stressed to the Washington Post in late 2016: “The problem with most if not all of the Arctic/jet stream studies has been the lack of a clear physical cause-and-effect relationship.”

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