Scientists generally agree that to limit global warming to less than 2.4 °C–and avoid the worst effects of climate change–greenhouse-gas emissions must be reduced 50 percent by 2050. But humanity is a long way from being weaned from the petroleum, natural gas, and coal whose use causes much of this pollution.
In fact, global energy demand is expected to increase about 40 percent over the next two decades. By 2030, the use of petroleum, coal, and natural gas is expected to jump by 23 percent, 44 percent, and 37 percent, respectively. “You look at the world of renewables and you see a lot of progress, but they are not going to outpace the growing demand for energy,” says Peter Jackson, a senior director at IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consultancy and think tank.
The near-term challenge, therefore, is to find ways to extract fossil fuels safely and use them in ways that emit as little carbon dioxide as possible. But dwindling supplies in conventional oil fields are forcing the petroleum industry to drill in deeper waters and pursue hard-to-extract deposits such as the tar sands of Alberta, Canada.
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