In a
report called “The
Future of Human Spaceflight,” MIT’s Space, Policy, and Society Research group has produced some
clear advice for the next president regarding manned space exploration. The
report addresses such pressing issues as the retirement of the space shuttle,
use of the International Space Station (ISS), and strategies for reaching the moon
and Mars.
A key message
is the discrepancy between NASA’s current funding ($17 billion per year) and the
ambitions outlined in President Bush’s vision for
space exploration from 2004. “Trying to do too much with too little is exactly
what caused the last two shuttle accidents,” says lead author David
Mindell, a professor of engineering systems and director of the program
in Science, Technology, and Society at MIT. But
a lack of funding is hardly a new problem for NASA. So perhaps the most significant
aspect of the report is its call for greater international collaboration, most
notably with China.
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The
report states that the U.S. needs to reaffirm its international leadership
while remaining committed to international partnerships. Specifically, the MIT
team says that we need to begin engagement with China, as this could yield
“enormous” benefits for both sides. Cooperation, the report says,
“could encourage the Chinese to open their space program and help end
speculation about their intentions in space.” The report adds that doing so could
help avoid a potentially dangerous space arms race.
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The
comprehensive study comes at an ideal time for president-elect Barack Obama. Once
he takes office in January, he’ll have just 100 days to determine the fate of the
U.S. space program, which is facing its biggest crossroads since the end of the
Apollo era in the 1970s. (To complicate matters, the Orlando Sentinel is reporting that NASA administrator Mike Griffin is refusing to cooperate with
Obama’s transition team, although Griffin has denied the accusation.)
The MIT report
was written by engineers, policy analysts, and even a former astronaut. It
starts by defining primary
objectives(those that can
only be accomplished by having human beings in space and are worthy of the
risks and costs) and secondary
objectives(benefits that
accrue from human presence but do not themselves justify the cost and risk). The report
also includes some specific recommendations for the new administration.
To start,
it says that the U.S. should continue flying the Space Shuttle until the ISS is
finished, even if that slips somewhat past 2010. Retiring the shuttle after this
date will mean relying on international partners, particularly the Russians,
for transportation to the ISS, but the report says we need to trust the Russians’
commitment to the project.
Second,
a “major question facing the new administration” is how to utilize
the $100 billion space station. The report suggests that operations should be
extended to 2020 and should support the primary objectives of exploration:
“research in the physical sciences, life sciences, development of
technologies to support moon missions and long duration Mars flights, and as a
laboratory for space technology development.” Already, NASA is testing a
water-processing system, workout equipment, and living quarters that will turn
the ISS into a six-crew vessel instead of a three-crew one by May 2009.
For the
moon and Mars, the report calls for a strategy that first establishes the size
and duration of any U.S. lunar presence and balances this with reaching other
destinations, such as Mars. Overall, it argues that the policy should be more,
not less, ambitious, but it also makes a strong case for employing space robotics.
The
report will be published in greater depth and detail by the American Academy of
Arts and Sciences in early 2009. Let’s
hope the Obama administration reads through it carefully. Reportedly, the transition
team has already “enthusiastically received” it.