In the tradition of Long Bets, climate expert James Annan has bet two Russian solar physicists $10,000 that the planet will warm over the next decade. The scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a U.S. climate center (I’m assuming it’s these NASA GISS temperatures) between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.
Annan (who blogs here) originally tried to make a bet with Richard Lindzen of MIT, who’s probably the world’s most prominent climate skeptic. But Lindzen wanted odds of 50-1! Not exactly a show of scientific confidence.
Annan has a good idea on the usefulness of a futures market where people/communities could make bets on warming temperatures or sea level rise.
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