Skip to Content
Uncategorized

Picking the President

The Univac introduced the public to computers with its 1952 election night forecast.
September 1, 2004

“Its awfully early, but Ill go out on a limb,” read the printout, just above the prediction that the winner of the 1952 presidential election would be Dwight Eisenhower. Onlookers were skeptical, but with only 1 percent of the vote counted, the Universal Automatic Computerbetter known as Univachad calculated the winner.

The demonstration was a milestone in the pioneering machines somewhat shaky journey from the laboratory to the real world. The Univac was created by J. Presper Eckert and John W. Mauchly, University of Pennsylvania scientists who in 1946 left academia to form a computer company. Financial woes forced the pair to sell the business to New York-based Remington Rand, though they continued to work from their Philadelphia offices. In 1951, Remington Rand shipped the first Univac to the U.S. Census Bureau. Weighing 13,000 kilograms and boasting more than 5,000 vacuum tubes, the Univac multiplied figures more than 50 times faster than the eras punch-card calculators.

Sales were limited at first to a few government agencies. Then, in 1952, Remington Rand reached an agreement with CBS to have a Univac predict a winner early on election night. The computer worked from the company offices while the station set up a dummy Univac console as a studio prop. At 8:30 p.m. on November 4, the Univac churned out a forecast based on early returns from a few states and past voting patterns. It predicted 438 electoral votes for Eisenhower and 93 for Adlai Stevenson, with odds of 100 to 1 that Eisenhower would win. This result alarmed its creators, for polls had indicated a much closer race. Convinced of an error, the company fiddled with the program to produce odds of a mere 8 to 7 in favor of Eisenhower, which CBS duly reported.

As the night wore on, however, it became clear that the landslide was real. The actual electoral-vote count was 442 to 89 in favor of Eisenhower, amazingly close to the Univacs original prediction. In spite of Remington Rands initial loss of nerve, the stunt worked. For the next several years, Univac was synonymous to the public with the word computer.

Keep Reading

Most Popular

Large language models can do jaw-dropping things. But nobody knows exactly why.

And that's a problem. Figuring it out is one of the biggest scientific puzzles of our time and a crucial step towards controlling more powerful future models.

The problem with plug-in hybrids? Their drivers.

Plug-in hybrids are often sold as a transition to EVs, but new data from Europe shows we’re still underestimating the emissions they produce.

How scientists traced a mysterious covid case back to six toilets

When wastewater surveillance turns into a hunt for a single infected individual, the ethics get tricky.

Google DeepMind’s new generative model makes Super Mario–like games from scratch

Genie learns how to control games by watching hours and hours of video. It could help train next-gen robots too.

Stay connected

Illustration by Rose Wong

Get the latest updates from
MIT Technology Review

Discover special offers, top stories, upcoming events, and more.

Thank you for submitting your email!

Explore more newsletters

It looks like something went wrong.

We’re having trouble saving your preferences. Try refreshing this page and updating them one more time. If you continue to get this message, reach out to us at customer-service@technologyreview.com with a list of newsletters you’d like to receive.