A study from the University of Washington, based on historic emissions and economics, suggests that there’s a 5 percent chance of the world meeting the agreed target of a 2 °C temperature rise by 2100. (The aspirational goal of 1.5 °C? That stands a 1 percent chance.) But as John Sterman from the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative tells the Guardian: “This study should not be taken as evidence that nothing can be done ... aggressive policies are urgently needed."