Skip to Content
77 Mass Ave

What 1918 can teach us

After the flu pandemic, cities that had imposed the most aggressive social distancing achieved the strongest economic recoveries.
Christine Daniloff, MIT | stock image buildings

In the face of a debate about when the US might “reopen” commerce to limit economic fallout from the covid-19 pandemic, a study coauthored by MIT Sloan economist Emil Verner shows that restricting economic activity to protect public health actually generates a stronger economic rebound.

Using data from the flu pandemic that swept the US in 1918–19, the working paper finds cities that did more to limit social and civic interactions had more economic growth later. Indeed, cities that implemented social distancing and other interventions just 10 days earlier than their counterparts saw a 5% relative increase in manufacturing employment after the pandemic ended, through 1923. Similarly, an extra 50 days of social distancing was worth a 6.5% increase in manufacturing employment.

Verner says the implications are clear: “It casts doubt on the idea there is a trade-off between addressing the impact of the virus, on the one hand, and economic activity, on the other hand, because the pandemic itself is so destructive for the economy.” 

Keep Reading

Most Popular

DeepMind’s cofounder: Generative AI is just a phase. What’s next is interactive AI.

“This is a profound moment in the history of technology,” says Mustafa Suleyman.

What to know about this autumn’s covid vaccines

New variants will pose a challenge, but early signs suggest the shots will still boost antibody responses.

Human-plus-AI solutions mitigate security threats

With the right human oversight, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence can help keep business and customer data secure

Next slide, please: A brief history of the corporate presentation

From million-dollar slide shows to Steve Jobs’s introduction of the iPhone, a bit of show business never hurt plain old business.

Stay connected

Illustration by Rose Wong

Get the latest updates from
MIT Technology Review

Discover special offers, top stories, upcoming events, and more.

Thank you for submitting your email!

Explore more newsletters

It looks like something went wrong.

We’re having trouble saving your preferences. Try refreshing this page and updating them one more time. If you continue to get this message, reach out to us at customer-service@technologyreview.com with a list of newsletters you’d like to receive.