Skip to Content

No One Knows How Much Oil Is Being Stored Around the World

Many countries keep their reserves a secret, meaning the price of oil is based on a huge amount of guesswork.

Peak oil, if it even exists, is very much a moving target. But so, it turns out, is measuring how much oil is already above ground, sitting in the holds of ships and in storage facilities around the world.

It’s not that humanity is fundamentally incapable of measuring how much oil we are extracting—it’s that many countries don’t report their inventories.

Take China, for example, which has been buying up far more oil than it appears to be using. As the Wall Street Journal reports, analysts think that 160 million barrels of surplus, enough to supply the country for two weeks, has gone to one of two places: either commercial storage, or to build up the nation’s strategic oil reserves. If it’s the latter, China’s demand for crude could suddenly slow down once those reserves are at capacity, which would affect market prices.

Ships anchored off of Singapore, meanwhile, appear to be sitting on as much as 43 million barrels of oil. But the ships’ holds could also be filled with seawater, as their cargo is just an estimate based on how low they’re sitting in the water.

While many industrialized nations do regularly report their oil inventories, a large fraction of the world’s economy remains opaque. In oil-rich countries like Angola, Brazil, and Nigeria, production often defies industry watchers’ best estimates.

That means global oil prices are based on a massive amount of guesswork. For those of us who like the cost of heating oil, diesel fuel, and gasoline to stay predictable, that could be cause for concern. The countries keeping mum about their reserves, however, might see their secrecy as giving them an edge in an unpredictable world.

(Read more: Wall Street Journal, “The Amount of Oil We Can Recover Keeps Growing,” “U.S. Oil Companies Ignore Climate Change While the Rest of the Industry Evolves”)

Keep Reading

Most Popular

DeepMind’s cofounder: Generative AI is just a phase. What’s next is interactive AI.

“This is a profound moment in the history of technology,” says Mustafa Suleyman.

What to know about this autumn’s covid vaccines

New variants will pose a challenge, but early signs suggest the shots will still boost antibody responses.

Human-plus-AI solutions mitigate security threats

With the right human oversight, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence can help keep business and customer data secure

Next slide, please: A brief history of the corporate presentation

From million-dollar slide shows to Steve Jobs’s introduction of the iPhone, a bit of show business never hurt plain old business.

Stay connected

Illustration by Rose Wong

Get the latest updates from
MIT Technology Review

Discover special offers, top stories, upcoming events, and more.

Thank you for submitting your email!

Explore more newsletters

It looks like something went wrong.

We’re having trouble saving your preferences. Try refreshing this page and updating them one more time. If you continue to get this message, reach out to us at customer-service@technologyreview.com with a list of newsletters you’d like to receive.