In the tradition of Long Bets, climate expert James Annan has bet two Russian solar physicists $10,000 that the planet will warm over the next decade. The scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a U.S. climate center (I’m assuming it’s these NASA GISS temperatures) between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.
Annan (who blogs here) originally tried to make a bet with Richard Lindzen of MIT, who’s probably the world’s most prominent climate skeptic. But Lindzen wanted odds of 50-1! Not exactly a show of scientific confidence.
Annan has a good idea on the usefulness of a futures market where people/communities could make bets on warming temperatures or sea level rise.
He also suggests setting up a financial-style futures market to allow those with critical stakes in the outcome of climate change to gamble on predictions and hedge against future risk.
“Betting on sea level rise would have a very real relevance to Pacific islanders,” he said. “By betting on rapid sea-level rise, they would either be able to stay in their homes at the cost of losing the bet if sea level rise was slow, or would win the bet and have money to pay for sea defences or relocation if sea level rise was rapid.”
Five poems about the mind
Work reinvented: Tech will drive the office evolution
As organizations navigate a new world of hybrid work, tech innovation will be crucial for employee connection and collaboration.
I taught myself to lucid dream. You can too.
We still don’t know much about the experience of being aware that you’re dreaming—but a few researchers think it could help us find out more about how the brain works.
Is everything in the world a little bit conscious?
The idea that consciousness is widespread is attractive to many for intellectual and, perhaps, also emotional
reasons. But can it be tested? Surprisingly, perhaps it can.
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