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Long Bets

Is a website where people as diverse as Gordon Bell, Ted Danson and Freeman Dyson have placed bets on long term societal and technological possibilities. E.g., Mitch Kapor and Ray Kurzweil have each plonked down $10,000 on oppposite sides of…
October 4, 2003

Is a website where people as diverse as Gordon Bell, Ted Danson and Freeman Dyson have placed bets on long term societal and technological possibilities. E.g., Mitch Kapor and Ray Kurzweil have each plonked down $10,000 on oppposite sides of whether a machine will pass the Turing test by 2029. For $50 anyone can put lay out a prediction and then others can place a bet against them. It is a little reminiscent of the Policy Analysis Market experiment at DARPA that got squelched this summer after hitting the press with stories about how people would buy and sell futures on political and terrorist events. The idea was that the collective intelligence of the market would make accurate predictions. And on the Long Bet web site it certainly looks like the predictions made by people who’ve had to pay $50 to place it on the web site are much more well thought out than the commentaries on them that people can post for free…

Deep Dive

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Five poems about the mind

DREAM VENDING MACHINE I feed it coins and watch the spring coil back,the clunk of a vacuum-packed, foil-wrappeddream dropping into the tray. It dispenses all kinds of dreams—bad dreams, good dreams,short nightmares to stave off worse ones, recurring dreams with a teacake marshmallow center.Hardboiled caramel dreams to tuck in your cheek,a bag of orange dreams…

Work reinvented: Tech will drive the office evolution

As organizations navigate a new world of hybrid work, tech innovation will be crucial for employee connection and collaboration.

lucid dreaming concept
lucid dreaming concept

I taught myself to lucid dream. You can too.

We still don’t know much about the experience of being aware that you’re dreaming—but a few researchers think it could help us find out more about how the brain works.

panpsychism concept
panpsychism concept

Is everything in the world a little bit conscious?

The idea that consciousness is widespread is attractive to many for intellectual and, perhaps, also emotional
reasons. But can it be tested? Surprisingly, perhaps it can.

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Illustration by Rose WongIllustration by Rose Wong

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