Select your localized edition:

Close ×

More Ways to Connect

Discover one of our 28 local entrepreneurial communities »

Be the first to know as we launch in new countries and markets around the globe.

Interested in bringing MIT Technology Review to your local market?

MIT Technology ReviewMIT Technology Review - logo

 

Unsupported browser: Your browser does not meet modern web standards. See how it scores »

In the tradition of Long Bets, climate expert James Annan has bet two Russian solar physicists $10,000 that the planet will warm over the next decade. The scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a U.S. climate center (I’m assuming it’s these NASA GISS temperatures) between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.

Annan (who blogs here) originally tried to make a bet with Richard Lindzen of MIT, who’s probably the world’s most prominent climate skeptic. But Lindzen wanted odds of 50-1! Not exactly a show of scientific confidence.

Annan has a good idea on the usefulness of a futures market where people/communities could make bets on warming temperatures or sea level rise.

He also suggests setting up a financial-style futures market to allow those with critical stakes in the outcome of climate change to gamble on predictions and hedge against future risk.

“Betting on sea level rise would have a very real relevance to Pacific islanders,” he said. “By betting on rapid sea-level rise, they would either be able to stay in their homes at the cost of losing the bet if sea level rise was slow, or would win the bet and have money to pay for sea defences or relocation if sea level rise was rapid.”


0 comments about this story. Start the discussion »

Reprints and Permissions | Send feedback to the editor

From the Archives

Close

Introducing MIT Technology Review Insider.

Already a Magazine subscriber?

You're automatically an Insider. It's easy to activate or upgrade your account.

Activate Your Account

Become an Insider

It's the new way to subscribe. Get even more of the tech news, research, and discoveries you crave.

Sign Up

Learn More

Find out why MIT Technology Review Insider is for you and explore your options.

Show Me