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Using seven different models, statistical and physical, the companies are refining prediction techniques. So far, in the first year since the project began, the accuracy has improved. “If we can reduce the deviation,” said Cena, “then we don’t have to have conventional power plants on standby for producing power when we don’t produce the power with wind. This also reduces penalties on the market.”
With all these advances in place, Garcia believes that the goals of supplying 15 percent of Spain’s energy needs via wind power and reducing the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels by 2010 is achievable. “We wouldn’t have proposed these goals if we didn’t believe they could be met,” he said.
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According to the AEE, Spain has enough wind potential to meet 30,000 megawatts installed capacity—even without offshore wind farms, although a number of offshore projects are in the planning stage.
Of course no one expects wind power to replace all other forms of energy, but rather to be part of a diverse group of energy options. If Spanish wind-power developers and turbine manufacturers meet the government’s goal of 20,000 megawatts by 2010, wind would supply around 15 percent of the country’s energy needs. Even that figure is somewhat misleading, however, since natural fluctuations in wind mean that when wind is plentiful, it could supply half of Spain’s needs.
Spanish companies are seeing steady demand and markets in Spain, and they look forward to supplying the power to meet the country’s ambitious goals. At the same time, the rest of the world offers a much wider market for these companies, many of whom are already at the forefront of the industry. Gamesa Eólica, for instance, opened a wind farm in Illinois (Mendota Hills) in 2004 and recently opened its new North American office in Philadelphia. Today, it also sells its largest share of turbines in China, a market all companies are eyeing as that country’s rapid industrialization demands more energy. Meanwhile, Iberdrola is already operating or plans to operate wind farms around Europe and Latin America, and Acciona Energía is working on an industrial project in China. Overall, Spanish wind-power companies are present in the United States, Portugal, France, Italy, India, Australia, Japan, Cuba, and China.
Financial analysts are also recognizing the strength of the Spanish industry. In the United States, Ernst and Young this year placed the Spanish wind market at the top of its index of long-term “country attractiveness,” as assessed by their Renewable Energy Group.
Corin Millais, head of the European Wind Energy Association, says that Spain has not only influenced the current growth of wind power in neighboring countries—France, Portugal, and Italy, which have all increased wind-power targets—but Spain provides a model for countries around the world looking to implement stronger legislation and encourage the development of wind power. “Wind power is a dynamic market, and it is rapidly growing into a mainstream power,” said Millais. “Spain shows how it can be done in a sustained fashion.”