Notebooks

Photovoltaics Come of Age

Solar panels are cheap enough to become a major component of green energy.

  • July/August 2010
  • By Ken Zweibel

The United States has supported research into photovoltaics for almost 40 years, recently with a 30 percent investment tax credit. Japan instituted incentives in the 1990s, when photovoltaics cost at least five times as much as residential electricity. In the new millennium, Germany instituted incentives an order of magnitude larger.

Thanks to these efforts, the cost of photovoltaic modules has dropped 40 percent in the last 18 months. Photovoltaic electricity now costs about 15 cents per kilowatt-hour in the best sunlight. That's only twice the cost of wholesale electricity and wind. Costs are expected to continue decreasing, and electricity is worth more during the daytime than at night. That means this technology is finally cheap enough to become a significant element in plans to combat climate change and oil dependence (see "Solar's Great Leap Forward").

The advantages of solar panels are clear. They need no fuel or water, and sunlight is nearly limitless. With 100 times the energy potential of wind, sunlight is sufficient to meet all our energy needs. Photovoltaic panels are also unique for their long, low-cost operating life--now 30 to 40 years, someday perhaps 100. And unlike energy sources that require a constant input of fuel, photovoltaic electricity is almost free once its initial capital cost is recovered.

In 2008, when the U.S. Department of Energy drafted a report looking at the potential for "20 percent wind energy by 2030," the plan called for only 5 percent of the country's energy to come from solar power. Soon, the department will publish a new "solar vision" examining the potential for a plan incorporating 10 percent solar photovoltaics, 10 percent solar thermal, and 10 percent wind by the same year. Meanwhile, further DOE work will look at a goal of deriving 80 percent of our energy from renewable sources in 2050. The European Climate Foundation has released a study with McKinsey showing that renewables could produce 100 percent of European electricity by that date. The reports maintain that reaching these targets will have minimal impact on electricity prices.

Advertisement

The ingredients for a fully green solution to climate change and oil dependence are in our grasp. They include electricity from wind and solar photovoltaics; electric vehicles to get us off gasoline; smart grid and transmission technologies to distribute solar and wind power and to balance supply with demand; and domestic natural gas to fill in the gaps. We don't have to turn Earth's crust into a carbon-sequestration experiment, increase our risks with nuclear, or convert arable land to energy farming. We are on track to deploy safe, renewable technologies to stabilize the price of oil and dial down carbon dioxide emissions as much as we want. Confirming photovoltaics' place among these technologies is a big step in the right direction.

Ken Zweibel is director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University.

Print

Close Comments

To comment, please sign in or register

Forgot my password

erbium

340 Comments

  • 602 Days Ago
  • 06/22/2010

That's cheaper than SCE

I'm paying as retail consumer

63kWh x $0.18712 for tier4 delivery of electricity charges

PLUS

47kWh x $0.09564 for generation charges to SCE of all tiers (all my usage)

and it looks like I get another
84 x $0.03763 to DWR summer
(I'll have to call them and see what this is now)

so I'm paying 9.5cents plus 3.8cents plus 18.7cents for some of my electricity (some of it is at 15 cents and a small chunk for lifeline portion is even cheaper)

This is 32.1 cents per kWh or double the solar panel electricity cost!!!



Reply

RogerB34

11 Comments

  • 598 Days Ago
  • 06/26/2010

Re: That's cheaper than SCE

SCE = Southern California Edison
Tier Rates:
http://www.sce.com/customerservice/billing/tiered-rates/
Tier 4 is high consumption of electricity.
PV may be an attractive alternative for you.
Ours, San Diego Gas Electric, 2009 was 3767 kWh at 13 cents per kWh.
PV doesn't make sense for us nor for 90 percent of households.  But we pay the subsidy for the 10 percent.

Reply

aunderdown

77 Comments

  • 601 Days Ago
  • 06/23/2010

Cost of PV Modules

The article states. "the cost of photovoltaic modules has dropped 40 percent in the last 18 months. Photovoltaic electricity now costs about 15 cents per kilowatt-hour in the best sunlight"

I hope someone can clarify what the author means by "best sunlight", e.g., does this estimate account for the variation of solar intensity over the daily period of illumination, on a full sun day? Capital costs have to be amortized over total operating hours.

Also, by cost of PV modules, does this mean manufacturing cost or sale price? The former is hopefully going down due to technological progress, and will continue to drop. The latter has likely been affected by the recent recession, and is temporary.

Reply

aunderdown

77 Comments

  • 599 Days Ago
  • 06/25/2010

Re: Cost of PV Modules

I should clarify what I meant by cost and price: The cost of PV modules to owners equals the price at which they're purchased (plus installation costs). The purchase price consists of manufacturers' cost plus profit margin. Manufacturers' costs decrease on the long-term, due to technological progress. (Although raw material costs, e.g., silicon, may add a cyclical component to cost). Profit margins go up and down, with economic conditions.

The demand for PV modules will be less during economic downturns. They will cost less to buy because buyers are collectively less willing to spend. Thus, the cost of PV modules to purchasers may undergo particularly large declines during economic downturns, that don't entirely represent technological progress. These declines will be partially reversed when the economy improves.

Also, changes to feed-in tariffs will impact the demand for PV modules, and hence their price. These changes could be reversible, for example, a government would be more likely to impose higher electricity costs on its citizens when the economy is booming, than when it is in recession.

Reply

blue7053

12 Comments

  • 593 Days Ago
  • 07/01/2010

Photovoltaics

I'm not happy with the way PV is discussed.  I've used PV for 30 years without mortgaging a house nor incurring an installation cost more than 3 years salary and incompetent writers (Ouuu, look out! It's a hammer!) describe PV in terms of an army of pro's.

Step one:
Buy a solar panel! (Do a google search on 'Solar Panels.  One of the results ( EcoLink---?) has 200 companies as low as $0.99/watt)

Step two:
Buy a battery! ($50 ea., used, Golf Cart.)

Step three:
Buy an inverter! (Appropriately sized for your intended use. Fans, lights, computer + accessories, about $50.  Table saw, welder, small lath, about $500.)

THAT'S IT!!!!!!!  LAY the PANEL in the SUN!!! Connect the Panel's wires to the BATTERY!!!
Connect the INVERTER to the BATTERY!!!  PLUG IN AN EXTENSION CORD !!!

This is TR, f'Christ sake!  If you can't figure it out, what are you doing on this page?

Reply

Advertisement

MAGAZINE

Can We Build Tomorrow's Breakthroughs?

Manufacturing in the United States is in trouble. That's bad news not just for the country's economy but for the future of innovation.

Videos

Printing Parts

More

Advertisement

Technology Review Lists

TR50

Our list of the 50 most innovative companies, including the following:

1366 Technologies

Silver Spring Networks

Cellular Dynamics International

Roche

More

Advertisement

Facebook

Advertisement