Paddy Mills

Notebooks

Why Geoengineering?

We should study the costs and consequences of solar radiation management.

  • January/February 2010
  • By M. Granger Morgan

Scientists already know how to cool the planet quickly. The secret is geoengineering: specifically, using very fine particles in the stratosphere to reflect sunlight (see "The Geoengineering Gambit"). The direct cost of shading the planet this way could be less than a few hundredths the cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. If reflecting sunlight is fast and cheap, why struggle with all the problems of collective action to achieve emission reductions? Why not wait until we have a climate problem and then simply fix it?

Over the past half-century, people have "fixed" a number of other problems with environmental implications. We have reversed rivers in Russia, inadvertently destroying the Aral Sea in the process; we have built roads and encouraged farming in tropical areas, inadvertently depleting the soil and destroying millions of acres of rain forest. If, with typical shortsightedness and hubris, we count on geoengineering to save the planet, can we be sure that the outcome will be what we intend?

Despite the mistakes of the past, the answer is not to treat geoengineering like chemical and biological weapons research, surrounding it with a global taboo. If a country experiencing a prolonged drought, for example, seeks to engineer the planet's climate unilaterally, we will need to be familiar with the potential consequences in order to muster informed counterarguments. And if our more extreme climate-change predictions become reality and a sudden climate emergency puts billions of people at risk, the world should not find itself collectively embarking on a crash program of geoengineering in ignorance.

We need to know much more about geoengineering. Until recently, most scientists and research managers have been reluctant to do research in this area, for fear that knowing how to engineer the climate would encourage people to do it. But today, the risks of avoiding research outweigh the risks of pursuing it.

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We need to take two steps now. First, we should establish a loosely coördinated international program aimed at researching how to shade the planet, how much it would cost, and what the intended and unintended effects would be. This research should also address what the rising atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide means for terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems, since reflecting sunlight will do nothing to stop it. About one third of emitted carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans, which become more acidic as a result; they are already 30 percent more acidic today than they were in preindustrial times. If current emissions continue, most coral reefs could be gone by the end of the century, along with all the ecosystems they support.

Second, we need to get the foreign-­policy community working on a collective approach to regulating geoengineering. My colleagues and I have started that process with two international workshops involving climate scientists and foreign-policy experts. Further informal discourse will lay the groundwork for a formal framework.

M. Granger Morgan is head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University.

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32 Comments

  • 776 Days Ago
  • 12/29/2009

CO2's other impact & Global Policy

I'm glad to see that this article also highlighted that CO2 is an acid gas, as well as a greenhouse gas. While it's only a weak acid gas, compared to NOx and SOx, this may be reason enough to cap the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Most of the greenhouses are also other pollutants. For example, CFCs are both greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting gases.

At some point in time, we will have to address greenhouses, acid and ozone-depleting gases under a single, global policy. (And perhaps particulate emission as well.) For example, the price for emitting CO2 should take into both the effect on the atmosphere and the effect on the oceans.

The problem with most geo-engineering schemes is that they solve one problem and ignore or worsen other problems. The idea of putting sulfur particulates in the upper atmosphere may be a solution to the global warming problem, but it will just be a band-aid that ignores or worsens other problems.

The role of scientists is to due their homework and find out all of the implications of a proposed scheme before publishing. I'm glad to see that the other article this month raises questions such as: What effects will sulfur particulates have on the ozone? Will any of the particulates end up in glaciers and speed up melting? Could we end up breathing in any of the particulates, increasing lung cancer? Will the sulfur particulates end up in lakes, rivers or oceans, causing acidification? (Because the sulfur particulates are really condensed acid gases.)

The "Problem of the Commons" never has a simple solution. The problem of sharing a global environment may be one of the hardest problems we've faced in human civilization because the solution needs the buy-in from nearly 7 billion people, all of which have different needs, wants and desires. The needs, wants and desires of the few should not be allowed to triumph over the many.

Our goal as scientists should be to inform the public of the outcome of various actions (including the outcome of the status quo), but we can only do this if we first do our homework and figure out all of direct and most of the indirect outcomes of a proposed policy or of a new technology.

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