Technology Review - Published By MIT
Advertisement

A Strategy for Coping with Climate Change

Continued from page 1

By David Talbot

Thursday, September 11, 2008

smaller text tool iconmedium text tool iconlarger text tool icon
Throwing in the towel: In this graphic of the Sacramento Delta region, light blue indicates low-lying land masses--mostly farmland--that research suggests should be surrendered to the sea the next time the levees protecting them break. Yellow indicates borderline cases.
Credit: Jay Lund

The study even looked in detail at the effects of various topographical changes on fish and the resulting economic costs. "Fish biology is a very complex business, but we sat down with 37 fish biologists, bought them a nice lunch and quizzed them and got a proper statistical distribution of their beliefs of certain species' surviving under certain scenarios, and came up with economic decision models," Howitt says. "We are not the only ones doing this, but we are probably one of the more comprehensive. What we've done is quantitatively link the different disciplines."

The analysis would seem to have sobering implications. In terms of sea-level rise, expensive infrastructure investments will have to be made--or willfully not made--in parts of New Orleans, the Everglades, Bangladesh, and the Netherlands, to name just a few obvious spots.

On a more subtle level, climate change will profoundly affect water supplies everywhere, because it will bring deeper droughts, changes in rainfall timing and intensity, and reduced mountain snowpack. "The critical issue is that it will change our planning paradigms, and it will change the information we use to make decisions," says Richard Palmer, a civil engineer and water-resources expert at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who praised the California study. Planning appropriately to keep tap water flowing, Palmer says, will require more such studies that cross disciplines, drawing on climate and atmospheric science, hydrology, civil engineering, and economics.

Comments

  • Strategy for Coping with Climate Change?
    Sounds like another "Do Nothing" strategy. Look to the Dutch. They have been working on solutions for hundreds of years and pushed the sea back.

    Or make the area more "productive" by providing oil refineries there. It worked for the delta around New Orleans!
    Rate this comment: 12345

    pritchet1
    09/11/2008
    Posts:1
    Avg Rating:
    1/5
  • Definitely a better idea
    While rising sea levels have yet to be documented, it's certainly good to be thinking about these things. Coping with climate change, manmade or not, is a much better strategy than trying to alter it.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    mikeyjk
    09/11/2008
    Posts:1
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • More than Nature is at work.
    I trust none of it.

    Dollar-value is not a reliable metric. This article asserts that the levee repair cost was 75 million dollars to protect land "worth" 22 million dollars. The methodology used for determining the "value" of land expressed in dollars is going to be flawed because the "value" of land in dollars varies. For example, when dollars are the metric, prime agricultural land is of lower "value" than land zoned for houses or Walmarts. Acreage covered with government offices is of a higher dollar value than acreage producing wheat, rice, tomatoes, celery, onions or cattle. The Delta land in this article is probably the finest farmland in California which means it equals or surpasses the finest farmland in the nation. Levees can be rebuilt, ag land cannot.

    Money and politics trump science. That's the way it is in California.

    Economic forces dominate Sacramento. Over-development south of the Tehachapi mountains from Los Angeles County to San Diego County is an under-reported disaster. Thus, the objectivity of the University report is shadowed by money and politics and the need in this faltering economy for large public works projects.The Governor, Westlands Water District and Metropolitan Water of Los Angeles want a peripheral canal in the Delta, they are pushing for it with an ongoing propaganda campaign which one hears every day on the major AM radio stations out of San Francisco.

    The Pacific salmon runs are failing, the Delta Smelt are nearly extinct, but this is a water war. The southern half of the state wants the northern half's water and will destroy the Delta and its habitat to get it. Studies which support that destruction must be considered suspect.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    danielessman
    09/11/2008
    Posts:1
    Avg Rating:
    5/5
    • Re: More than Nature is at work.
      suppose you tripple the value of the land and you'll have something like $75 million of public money spent to protect $66 million in private property.

      An alternative is for the localities to decide how much they tax them selfs to prepare for disasters ware a levee breaks. Each levee protects certain tracks of land and land owners pay for the maintenance of those levees. If the land  isn't of enough value then the land owners would decide that the levee isn't worth protecting.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      shomas
      09/12/2008
      Posts:42
      Avg Rating:
      4/5
  • More Than Nature at Work
    Part of my family is from the delta area.  I remember in the fifties when all of the homes in the delta area were built up on 5 ft. high stilts.  I asked my uncle why this was so, and he said that it was for the yearly floods.

    What we seem to be missing here is the fact that all of the work to harness hydroelectricity, store water, and feed development resulted in the constant damming of the river systems mentioned in this article.  Those rivers revived and replenished the siltation of the delta region, provided access for spawning grounds that fed the the salmon and smelt runs.  All is gone for the sake of controlling what nature did to replenish and sustain the delta.  No more silt means no more build up of the delta. No more spawning grounds means no more fish! Fish ladders don't remake flooded spawning grounds behind the dams.

    The old saying amongs family members was that as kids, they could cross the Sacramento on the backs of salmon.  Today, amongs those still alive, they are sorry that they helped to build some of the dams that choke the rivers today!
    Just another man made disaster..........

    Soarhead  
    Rate this comment: 12345

    soarhead
    09/15/2008
    Posts:9
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • Aerosol Pollutants
    Focus, not on CO2, but on the 10 billion pounds of aerosol (non-CO2) pollutants drifting over North America every year from East Asia.  Those pollutants wash out into the mountains, forests, lakes, streams, and coastal waters.  The Sacramento Delta is very susceptible to such pollution.  We should be making trade policy partly dependent upon environmental cleanup from our upwind trade partners.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    RD
    09/16/2008
    Posts:112
    Avg Rating:
    3/5

Log In

Forgot your password?     Register »
Advertisement

Videos

Laser-Triggered Chemical Reactions
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Subscribe to Technology Review's daily e-mail update. Enter your e-mail address

TECHNOLOGY RESOURCES

More Technology News from Forbes

Advertisement
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology © 2009 Technology Review. All Rights Reserved.