A symbolic word in this argument is "Kyoto." More formally, the "Kyoto Protocol" is a proposed amendment to a treaty called the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It was negotiated in Kyoto, Japan, and signed by the U.S. representative, vice president Al Gore, in 1998. Senate ratification of the treaty would commit the United States to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 7 percent below our 1990 level. Since emissions have grown since 1990, the actual cut required works out to about 16 percent of the current levels.

But nobody expects the Senate to ratify the treaty, unless there are enormous changes in the public's perception of the danger. President Clinton never brought the treaty to the Senate (it would have been rejected), and President Bush opposes it. If John Kerry is elected president, he is unlikely to send the treaty to the Senate only to lose the vote.

But Kyoto stays alive, mostly as an emblem of the potential problem. People are categorized by their stand on this treaty-for it or against it-even though the issue is subtle and complex. I hold an unusual position. I believe carbon dioxide emissions should be brought under control-not because they are the scientifically proven cause of global warming, but because they could be responsible. Yet I dislike the Kyoto approach, since I believe it does not address the real issue. In fact, complying with the Kyoto treaty might lull us into thinking we had taken a valuable step, when in fact a substantially different direction is needed.

Virtually everyone agrees that if the United States were to comply completely with the Kyoto protocol, that by itself would not halt global warming. We may be responsible for much of the rise of the last century, but we will not be responsible for the 2- to 8-degree Celsius rise that climate modelers say could occur over the next 50 years. The long-term problem comes from India and China. Their economies, and thus their energy use, are rapidly expanding. Fortunately, these countries have taken strong conservation measures, which appear to have paid off. Carbon-dioxide emissions in China have actually gone down recently, while its economy has grown. Part of that may be attributed to good will, but most of it is probably just good economics.

But it is hard to be optimistic. The easy measures have been taken. The 1.3 billion people in China and the 1.0 billion people in India deserve a standard of living equal to ours, and they are heading in that direction. With that many people striving for automobiles and air conditioning, what future can we expect?

Pro-Kyoto advocates say that we must set an example. Let's show we can restrain ourselves, and China and India will eventually follow. I find this argument weak. We have already set an example: our standard of living is so high that for the first time in recorded history obesity among the poor is a serious health problem. China and India have a right to covet a life of abundance, and we have no right to deny it to them. They'll get their SUVs first, and only then will they consider following our lead toward benefiting the rest of mankind. That approach is not good for Alaska.

Moreover, China has vast coal reserves, so they will have cheap fossil fuels too, just like we had. Can we deny them the right to use it? No, of course not. Can we set an example that they will follow? The welfare of their people is more important to them than the ecology of Alaska. Kyoto does not address this serious problem. It has no limits whatsoever on carbon dioxide emissions of China and India.