Gas on Ice

Continued from page 1

By David Wolman

January 30, 2004

The Mallik project followed years of research into the behavior of melting hydrate, as well as geophysical assessments of the Mallik deposits themselves. For the most recent findings, scientists used fiber optics instruments to characterize conditions within the different wells, together with seismic studies to estimate the extent to which released methane might seep into the surrounding geologic formations. After that, it was time to melt the hydrate-first through depressurization and then through heating, both of which proved to be effective methods for releasing methane that could then be captured. So much was known about the wells that the team was able to adjust the rate of hydrate dissociation, and thus the rate of gas release.

What's more, Mallik also demonstrated that large amounts of natural gas are likely to be attainable in areas with high concentrations of hydrate. Because this was a first-time endeavor, scientists weren't after maximum well output, but rather a carefully controlled reaction that could then be analyzed with greater precision. Yet models built using the Mallik data suggest that production could indeed yield rates of "several million cubic feet of gas per day," says Collett-an output as good or better than that of conventional gas well. That could make hydrates a significant addition to global natural gas supply-especially in resource-poor parts of the world.)

Though countries from Canada to India have been investing heavily in hydrate research, the biggest effort has been in Japan. With the world's second-largest economy, Japan imports roughly 98 percent of its oil and gas, and the Japanese are itching to find a domestic energy resource. Off the eastern coast of the main island of Honshu is a massive hydrate deposit similar in composition and concentration to the Mallik site, which helps explain why Japan bankrolled the bulk of the Mallik project. Some Japanese industry leaders have gone as far as to claim that hydrate development will make Japan energy self-sufficient by 2015.

That may be overly optimistic. For one thing, Japan may not have enough hydrate within its borders to power the country. It is also too soon to say whether other deposits would be as cooperative and productive as Mallik was in this first set of tests. In addition, the economics of hydrate production are not yet competitive with oil and gas from conventional sources. Nevertheless, the unpredictability of global energy markets (the price of natural gas, for example, was surging just before the New Year), the almost pathological commitment of the Japanese when it comes to energy security, and the money being thrown at hydrate research collectively indicate that gas from hydrate may very well play a major role in our energy picture over the long term.

A hydrate-rich energy future is not, of course, inevitable. For one thing, recent discovery and development of enormous new natural gas reservoirs means that conventional supplies of gas will be on hand for a long time to come. Economic viability remains the key wild card: no company will invest in the science and infrastructure needed to extract gas from hydrate if they can make more money finding and tapping conventional wells. And lastly, though burning natural gas is far cleaner than burning oil or coal, it does emit greenhouse gases. "If we get serious about climate change, we'll have to look beyond carbon-based fuels, whether to solar, nuclear or something totally new. In that sense, we could be leaving all that hydrate untouched where it is," says David Victor, Director of Stanford's Program on Energy and Sustainable Development.

Still, knowing that it is technically feasible to unlock gas from hydrate means development of this resource is possible. And than means more choices about fueling the future.