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But if the Alpha 680 is any indication, it might not be so easy to make Android work smoothly on a netbook. Solis says that early demonstrations suggest that the operating system needs work in order to run properly on the Skytone device. "Android isn't ready," he says. "They need to do work to make it run well on a netbook."
The main problem revolves around the user interface. "Making the UI work well is exceptionally hard," says Mark Murphy, an Android developer and contributor to the Android Guys blog. It's a matter of making sure that the hardware and software communicate effectively with each other, and it's a different case for each device. One issue is ensuring that the interface and applications adjust appropriately to the larger screen size of a netbook. Also, Murphy says, Android is designed for touch screens, directional pads and trackballs as pointing devices.
While a majority of mobile-device manufacturers are publicly supporting Android, it's not as clear which major laptop companies might choose ARM and Android over Intel's Atom and Windows. Still, as rumors of other Android devices start to emerge, there will be more pressure for the operating system to perform, for both developers and consumers. It's important that there's some consistency in the way that Android is implemented, says Chetan Sharma, an analyst who runs his own firm in Issaquah, WA. Otherwise, he says, developers will need to pick and choose a particular version of Android to work with instead of being able to contribute across the board. For their part, consumers expect reliable, easy-to-use software, Sharma adds.
"A moment of truth is coming for Android," says Sharma. "If all of the applications are developed seamlessly, then that means that fragmentation issues that have plagued the mobile industry are on the path to being resolved." Still, he cautions, device manufactures will need to tweak Android for their own products, which "might create different flavors of Android."
But whether Android will be ready or not, cheaper netbooks are on their way, predicts Kevin Burden, another analyst at ABI Research. Consumers "want these things to be $150. They want to let their kids bang away on them, and when they break, they'll just throw it away and buy another one," he says.
Moreover, low-end netbooks could find their way into emerging markets such as China and India, says Solis. "It opens up to people who can afford a $200 netbook, but not one that's $500."
Computer users are getting smarter. Even newbies have heard of the disasters and experienced them with ultra-cheap devices of all types. Everyone I know has had a Tech Turkey!
The assumption that lots of people will continue to buy the item with the cheapest first cost is a guess. I suspect computer users are going to look more closely.
In the broad sense of the market, one might ask if the cheapest are going to compete with the better models priced $200-$400 more, which indeed are already offered. A few loaded netbooks are already over $800.
What happens when Apple cuts into the market with something innovative that gets rid of the keyboard and still has a 10-12" touch screen & is around $800-900?
In broad market terms, the 5 year stock chart on Dell looks like the inversion of Apple. If netbooks were really on a tear and taking down the norms in buying, would not Dell be in a big uptick?
Um, razor thin margins and the potential for an even worse outlook with a proliferation of Asian manufacturers on the horizon, might account for Dell's trend going forward. Dell's trend to now is not based on the netbook, but the notebook market.
Apple's style might earn it a fraction of the super-low-cost netbook market, but ... there are two completely different markets, and Apple may lose more iPhone users to netbooks then it gains.
Battery technology may be the biggest delta for this market near-term. Better batteries are likely to make netbooks even more attractive to the email, social networking, and other cloud app markets.
Probably the best money to be made in these markets is in financing. Because they are networked the consumer can be turned on and off easily. Even the B2B financing should have better margins then the manufacturing side.
Wal-Mart's distribution system, volume purchasing leverage, and worldwide footprint -position it to be a market leader in netbook retail. If Wal-Mart had ownership in Chinese netbook manufacturing and retail sales in China, it could use this RMB income and purchasing to hedge against the USD devaluation and be an even stronger price competitor in the US. The exchange rate margin offset is likely to be a significant consideration in this thin margin market.
Manufacturing in the United States is in trouble. That's bad news not just for the country's economy but for the future of innovation.
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"Just a few years ago"?
"A few years on"? This article makes it sound like netbooks have been around for a while. The original Eee PC 701 only reached the stores in Oct. 2007, which is just barely a year and a half ago.
Furthermore, you mention Symbian, Windows CE, and Android - none of which are on netbooks right now - but fail to mention that Linux already runs on ARM, or that Ubuntu Linux - which is already on a number of netbooks from Dell and HP and is far more popular than Android - has an ARM port now just for these ARM netbooks.
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