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Part II: A Failure of Intelligence

Continued from page 3

By Freeman Dyson

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

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Sometime early in 1944, 218 Squadron stopped bombing and started training for a highly secret operation called GLIMMER, which Bas helped to plan, and whose purpose was to divert German attention from the invasion fleet that was to invade France in June. The operation was carried out on the night of June 5-6. The G-H bombers flew low, in tight circles, dropping WINDOW as they moved slowly out over the English Channel. In conjunction with boats below them that carried specially designed radar transponders, they appeared to the German radars to be a fleet of ships. While the real invasion fleet was moving out toward Normandy, the fake invasion fleet of G-H bombers was moving out toward the Pas de Calais, 200 miles to the east. The ruse was successful, and the strong German forces in the Pas de Calais did not move to Normandy in time to stop the invasion. While Bas was training the crews, he said nothing about it to his friends at the ORS. We knew only that he was out at the squadrons doing something useful. Even when GLIMMER was over and the invasion had succeeded, Bas never spoke about it. My boss, Reuben Smeed, was a man of considerable wisdom. One day at Bomber Command, he said, "In this business, you have a choice. Either you get something done or you get the credit for it, but not both." Bas's work was a fine example of Smeed's dictum. He made his choice, and he got something done. In later life he became a famous plasma physicist and ran the Joint European Torus, the main fusion program of the European Union.

The one time that I did something practically useful for Bomber Command was in spring 1944, when Smeed sent me to make accurate measurements of the brightness of the night sky as a function of time, angle, and altitude. The measurements would be used by our route planners to minimize the exposure of bombers to the long summer twilight over Germany. I went to an airfield at the village of Shawbury in Shropshire and flew for several nights in an old Hudson aircraft, unheated and unpressurized. The pilot flew back and forth on a prescribed course at various altitudes, while I took readings of sky brightness through an open window with an antiquated photometer, starting soon after sunset and ending when the sun was 18 degrees below the horizon. I was surprised to find that I could function quite well without oxygen at 20,000 feet. I shared this job with J. F. Cox, a Belgian professor who was caught in England when Hitler overran Belgium in 1940. Cox and I took turns doing the measurements. My flights were uneventful, but on the last of Cox's flights, both of the Hudson's engines failed, and the pilot decided to bail out. Cox also bailed out and came to earth still carrying the photometer. He broke an ankle but saved the device. In later years, he became rector of the Free University in Brussels.

After the War, Smeed worked for the British government on road traffic problems and then taught at University College London, where he was the first professor of traffic studies. He applied the methods of operational research to traffic problems all over the world and designed intelligent traffic-light control systems to optimize the flow of traffic through cities. Smeed had a fatalistic view of traffic flow. He said that the average speed of traffic in central London would always be nine miles per hour, because that is the minimum speed that people will tolerate. Intelligent use of traffic lights might increase the number of cars on the roads but would not increase their speed. As soon as the traffic flowed faster, more drivers would come to slow it down.

Comments

  • I propose a variation on Smeed's law
    For collateral damage. Collateral damage will likewise equilibrate to a constant rate, as civilians in at-risk areas will compensate for an attacking force's measures to reduce collateral damage by taking greater risks until such risks become unacceptable to them.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    amulekii
    12/05/2006
    Posts:10
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • [no subject]
    Interesting text, with a human touch. Mr. Dyson, I didn't live at that time, but it seems to me that British remembrances of WW1 days were not the trigger for bombing Dresden and others "when the war was already won". German attacks on London with V-1 and V-2 devices, causing 9,000 deaths from Jul/44 to Mar/45, more likely were.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    versatech
    12/05/2006
    Posts:1
  • US Highway Deaths and smeed's law
    Not sure if they are playing with the stats, but they seem to be going down.  I recall the deaths being in the mid-fifties years ago, when the population and number of cars were less.  Today it appears the number is in the low 40's.  http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/RNotes/2005/809897.pdf
    Rate this comment: 12345

    ghaller
    12/05/2006
    Posts:4
  • Bomber's don't work
    Clinton proved that bombing does work in Bosnia.  The bombing side has to have control of the skies and the ability ro deliver munitions with more precision than existed in WWII.  On the other hand, the Israelis could not make this work in Lebanon.  They could not find enough of the missile depots to make the strategy effective.  They could not take out the leadership.  So the strategy still has its limits.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    ghaller
    12/05/2006
    Posts:4
  • So, where's the rest?
    Been waiting for parts III, IV, and V for this series but haven't seen them?
    Rate this comment: 12345

    lescoulee
    12/18/2006
    Posts:1

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