New computer modeling software could make gridiron coaches rethink their decisions and look to science for guidance.
A startup venture, EndGame Technologies, has designed novel computer modeling software to assist National Football League coaches with critical play-calling decisions--the kind that often determine the outcome of the game. Should a team punt on fourth down--or go for it? Or attempt a two-point conversion after a touchdown? The software, called ZEUS, is designed to answer such questions by calculating the consequences of each decision in a matter of seconds.
Football could be transformed by new software programs designed to determine the best play-call in tight situations. (Credit: Istockphoto.com/unstoppablenick)
Head ZEUS researchers Chuck Bower and Frank Frigo want to revolutionize football by changing the way plays are called. Already, their statistics on past NFL games have revealed that teams consistently lose approximately one game per season by making the wrong play calls in critical situations. And with only 16 games in an NFL season, each win or loss is of paramount importance.
Football is a game of strategy and risk management. Each coach goes into a game with a plan, explains Dwight Smith, head football coach at MIT. Although every variable is considered beforehand, adjustments have to be made as the game progresses. ZEUS is meant to help coaches make those on-the-fly decisions. The software was created by mining historical NFL data and developing distribution curves of success rates for individual actions, such as how far a running back carries the ball.
Coaches could use ZEUS at any point in the game, by entering a set of variables, such as the score, field position, possession, down, and time remaining on the clock. Then the user enters two play-call options and the software analyzes each one separately, playing the game to its conclusion 100,000 times. During each iteration, ZEUS considers a different scenario.
All the decisions about play calls that occur after the initial play are based on historical NFL data. This data isn't specific to a particular coach, though; it's based on records from a wide variety of coaches. (The researchers call this algorithm the "generic" NFL coach.) In a matter of seconds, ZEUS displays the Game Winning Chance--the play that gives the team the highest probability of winning.
Unlike interactive football simulations, which require about the same amount of time to play out as a real game, ZEUS performs its calculations and recommendations in real time, displaying the computer's results before the next snap.
According to Bower, the challenge for them now lies not in the technology, but in getting NFL teams to adopt it. "We have shown it to 10 NFL teams, [everyone] from managers to head coaches," he says. "But at this point no one has stepped forward and said we are ready to pay for the product."
The problem: ZEUS is still illegal under NFL guidelines. The league doesn't permit computers on the sidelines or in the coach's booth on game day. Although there are no restrictions on using high-tech analytical tools off the field, the traditional elements of strategy continue to be preserved on game day.
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Technology shouldn't change sports...
If a computer could be used by both teams before the plays were actually played out, wouldn't that make the game predetermined?
Maybe the NFL should just stop paying all of the players altogether. Then each NFL team would just have to pay a coach. The NFL streamed across televisions would be completely virtual. Coaches would button mash it out on an Xbox360 against other competing teams. Just kidding of course.
Seriously though, when you introduce a technology into a game that can change the outcome you are undermining the basic principals of how the game should be played in the first place. In football or any sport for that matter, the idea of placing someone in the position of a coach is that they get to make all of the team calls based on their knowledge of the game and expirence. Yes I’m sure someone could make a computer that can make the calls for them, but then why have a coach at all? Why don’t we just determine the best play for each team and let them execute. I would estimate to say that a coach and the decisions he makes for the team weigh about 20% overall, against the teams actual performance. When you have Coach Program v1.0 running on both sides of the team it’s only about the players.
What’s next? Players being bio-scanned during the game to weigh their actual performance so that Coach Program v1.0 can make better plays based on what kind of performance it’s players are capable of?
Re: Technology shouldn't change sports...
In theory, I agree that technology shouldn't be allowed to impact the outcome of a game. However, this principle is violated across the board, in just about every sport, including the NFL. To name but a couple: Two way communication between between coaches on the field and coaches in the booth. Said booth coaches having access to numerous angles of high resolution photography and video capture with replay ability allowing them to quickly analyze innumerable data in real time and communicate analyses to coaches and players. The other one, in-helmet QB/LB radios. If, as NFL spokespeople put it, the goal is to prevent technology from interfering with the natural conditions of the game environment, then naturally one of those conditions is crowd participation - the twelfth man if you will. Not only do these radios diminish the importance of crowd noise, but they also diminish the need for the now long forgotten system of ridiculously amusing gestures employed for signal calling for so many years. These examples are just two of how the NFL has employed technology in ways that directly impact decision making in games, and consequently their outcomes. On field analytics may or may not be what it seems, but it is misleading for the League to assert that it is wary of technology that can impact the outcome of games when this is clearly not their modus operandi. Here's a suggestion for the NFL, employ technology that improves performance of officials during the game. If you have to shove a V-chip on their heads, so be it!
Re: Technology shouldn't change sports...
Instant Replay? Pads and Helmets? Gatorade? Treadmills? Video tape? Stickum spray? Cleats?
Competitive sports is all about using technology to change the limits of performance ...
OK, your Complex Game Theory Algorithm --Zeus-- tells you that opposing coach Dunderblock will drop back ten yards and punt.
This goes against every instinct you have that they will fake the punt and try for a first down. You have the dilemma of going with science or gut. What DO you do?
I would suggest that if I was one of the people on the pitch, I wouldn't play if there was a computer telling me what to do- but then again, they would be payed for it. I imagine that if this kind of technology was introduced then it would really split the players with the decision. Still, this is a long way off, and if they try to introduce it too early we'll have players running back to the centre every few seconds to reboot the moment something goes wrong & also a strong need for security here.
It should be noted that ZEUS was never intended to be a robotic replacement of an NFL coach. It was built to serve as a tool to assist coaches in making optimal choices in "directional" play-calling. Directional choices encompass 4th down situations, on-side kickoffs, PAT conversions and penalty acceptance. These "forks in the road" are often extremely complicated decisions that require the proper weighting of score differential, ball position, yards-to-1st down,clock, timeouts remaining, and the relative offensive and defensive strengths of the teams. Interestingly the research into directional choices revealed unique insights into other facets of the game. ZEUS can convert nearly every component of a team into a standard GWC (Game Winning Chance Expectation)unit. For instance, the cost of turnovers, the incremental value of a top tier place-kicker vs a league average kicker, or an optimal choice on 4th down vs a suboptimal choice can be analyzed as a common currency.
ZEUS in no way encroaches on the artistry of the coach. The game will always be human vs human on the field. Technology is an essential part of all competitive games whether on a board or a gridiron. Early adopters of proven technologies have a distinct advantage over the competition until the playing field levels. Such is the case in NFL.
For more information on ZEUS, interested readers may visit www.pigskinrevolution.com
Frank Frigo
President, End Game Technologies
Football - mostt tech friendly sport
I wrote about all the tech that goes in to various aspects of the NFL below...Zeus appears to primarily automate the coaching sheets they have today which already tell them plays to consider when it is 3rd and 25?
http://florence20.typepad.com/renaissance/2005/08/technology_inno_4.html
something that I could not find in the article was how long it would take to input the needed requirements in order to get the output. sure - it only takes a few seconds for the "NFL Assistant" to spit out the answers, but if it takes 10 minutes to input the data, is it really efficient?
in response to a few comments, i don't think that it will ever replace the football game though. it doesn't account for human error - a 400lb guy squashing a tiny 220 lb running back. someone landing wrong on his ankle. a team having a bad day. a death in the family of one of the players.
but since i'm highly into the bi/datamining side of things - i think this is an amazing tool that i definitely would use if i got my hands on it (mainly for the fact that i could sound like i know something when watching football with a bunch of friends).
i think that the NFL should allow it in the future. you look at baseball, and the players there are using video ipods and other video handhelds to preview different pitchers, batters, plays run by the opposing team. technology is taking away the innocence of human error - the big question is do we let it ... or do we slow it down.
surely if ZEUS runs on a compilation of plays used by all coaches every programme would be the same> so
if a coach wanted to see the risk or likelihood of making a first down or kicking the field goal the coach on the opposite side of the field could do exactly the same thing> would the coaches then not be back at square one? is this the same kind of technology used when weighing up to give someone health insurance??
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Phineas
127 Comments
Helps Everyone?
If all the teams use and benefit from this advantage, wont it be like Lake Woebegone where all the kids are above average?
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Guest (Coyle Can Boyd)
Re: Helps Everyone?
Eventually the league may get there, but imagine how much the early adopters could benefit before it becomes the norm. Personally, I hope my favorite team is one of the earlier adopters.
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