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November 2004

The Other Exponentials

Moore's Law isn't alone. Many technologies now improve so quickly it boggles the mind.

By Rodney Brooks

Any stable system can become unstable when even one component experiences exponential growth. In information technology, this translates into opportunities for new research and new business models.

Moore's Law -- Gordon Moore's 1965 prediction that the number of transistors on a chip will roughly double every 18 months come rain or shine -- describes infotech's most famous exponential growth factor. But there are many other infotech exponentials, and it's a good idea to think through their consequences.

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