War with Iraq-Predictable as Chess

Continued from page 2

By Richard A. Muller

November 15, 2002

When the Predator finds something interesting on radar or far infrared, it can zoom in with an optical telescope for a close look. According to the New York Times, it did this in Yemen on November 3. It (or rather, the remote pilot) fired a Hellfire missile and killed Abu Ali, the accused planner of the attack on the USS Cole. Saddam may run out of look-alikes, as the Predator spots them and kills them. Don't be surprised if Saddam instructs all male Iraqis to grow mustaches and to dress like him.

Higher in the sky, the unmanned Global Hawk (a U-2 replacement) equipped with far infrared and Synthetic Aperture Radar (and more) will survey large areas. A Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System will locate, identify, and track most vehicles, in all weather conditions. It was used in Desert Storm, but now (as with the Predator) the information will be available to our ground troops almost instantly.

What can go wrong? Unfortunately, a lot. New technologies and new systems often fail. But my worst fear is of Saddam's biological weapons. According to intelligence estimates, he has 7,000 liters of anthrax in readiness, over a million times the material used in the U.S. terrorist mailings. Even worse is his suspected store of smallpox virus, which (unlike anthrax) can spread through contagion around the world. He will probably save these weapons of mass destruction for the end, until he finally realizes he will lose. The U.S. already has been warning Iraqi troops to disobey any order to use such weapons, or to later be tried as war criminals. Such a warning might work. With the end near, Hitler ordered the Nazis to burn Paris, and they disobeyed.

If Saddam releases smallpox, the main victims will almost certainly be his own people and those in the under-developed world. The U.S. has advanced health care, and can distribute vaccine rapidly and treat victims effectively. But even we cannot contain smallpox. Frightened people will spread the disease as they flee contaminated regions.

Even though the moves are unpredictable, the stronger player usually wins in chess. Let me jump to the presumed end, and ask a speculative question. A few years after the war is over, which countries in the Persian Gulf region do you think will be the closest allies of the United States? I am not a political expert, but I can't resist telling you my guess. Saudi Arabia will not be one of them. Our closest allies will be the three countries in the area that we liberated: Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

Versailles and the Louvre in France, and the Hermitage in Russia, were preserved by the revolutionaries, in part to document the excesses of the Kings and Czars. Saddam's palaces may contain weapons of mass destruction, but I hope we can avoid destroying them completely. Let us preserve as much of the palaces as we can, as monuments to Saddam's greed and selfishness. I hope to visit one in a few years, perhaps when it is a museum.