War with Iraq-Predictable as Chess

Continued from page 1

By Richard A. Muller

November 15, 2002

Most of our bombs will be JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions). JDAMs are dumb bombs with relatively inexpensive guidance systems attached to their backs. JDAMs use GPS (Global Positioning System) satellites to guide them to previously programmed-in locations. This technology was not ready in time for Desert Storm, but it was used extensively in Afghanistan. It was accurate and effective.

Ground troops will first invade the thinly-populated region of western Iraq-to get control of the only part of the country that puts Israel within Iraq's Scud missile range. Israel is Saddam's nearest civilian target of vengeance. With this initial invasion the U.S. hopes to preempt Israel's entrance into the war.

The war might end early. I believe that Saddam is hated by most of his own people, including the military. With the Predator unmanned air attack vehicle patrolling Baghdad skies, disgruntled Iraqi troops can do more than surrender; if they know, they can tell us where Saddam is. Again, the toughest job for us is vetting such information, particularly over a clutter of disinformation generated by Saddam. He will employ numerous look-a-likes (another job more dangerous than that of the U.S. president). He will do his best to trick us into attacking a mosque or children's hospital. I suspect he is delighted whenever the U.S. accidentally kills Iraqi civilians.

The invasion of Baghdad (if necessary) will take place on a dark night, moonless or cloud-covered. The army motto (once used exclusively by the U.S. Special Operations Forces) is now "We own the night." Our forces not only see in the dark, they are trained to fight in the dark.

Goggles that require only starlight to give vision have been available since World War II, but now there is an entire panoply of much more advanced technology. Binoculars and gunsights can see in the far infrared (FIR) without illumination of any kind. They vividly image people from their own warmth. Far infrared surveillance cameras will fly just above the city on Predator unmanned-air vehicles. They can detect whether an automobile or tank engine is running (or has been recently running) solely from the warmth of the engine.

If you dread city warfare, perhaps based on accounts from World War II or Somalia (e.g. Black Hawk Down), recognize that it may still be bad, but in Baghdad it will be different. In a few seconds, a synthetic aperture radar carried on a Predator can take a radar image of several city blocks with a ground resolution of 30 centimeters. It looks like a sharp photo taken from directly above. The image will be delivered to the ground troops in nearly real time (we couldn't do that in Desert Storm) using the new Joint Tactical Information Distribution System. In this city warfare, there will be fewer surprises lurking just around the corner.