Harry Campbell
The market for electronic readers like Amazon's will be limited.
No one can doubt that digitization and the Internet, together with various factors intrinsic to the publishing industry, will radically transform the distribution of books: books can now be transmitted directly from writer to reader, eliminating much of the traditional publishing supply chain. Research, technical data, and the contents of dictionaries, manuals, certain journals, and encyclopedias of all kinds can now be sent to users' screens, item by item, on demand. This largely ephemeral material need no longer be distributed in book form.
But for books that embody the ancient and ongoing dialogue that constitutes civilization, the format of printed and bound sheets is optimal and inescapable. True, a marginal market of indeterminate size may exist for handheld screens, serving some readers of seasonal fiction and nonfiction. However, the assumption that because content can now be transmitted electronically most books hereafter will be read on screens overlooks such factors as cost, convenience, reliability, and human nature, as well as the peculiar nature of books.
In Jonathan Swift's Gulliver's Travels, Lemuel Gulliver encounters the airborne island of Laputa, inhabited by so-called projectors--what today we would call inventors. The projectors are growing cucumbers on the theory that because they absorb heat and energy from the sun, cucumbers can replace traditional sources of warmth and light: biofuels 300 years avant la lettre. Gulliver also wonders why Laputan coats fit badly, until he visits a tailor and finds himself being fitted by compass and quadrant.
The new Kindle from Amazon (see Hack) and its many failed predecessors are Laputan biofuel production and tailoring. Take, for example, the Kindle's price of $400: the first book downloaded will cost the reader $410, assuming $10 per download. This means that the first 20 books a reader buys will cost $30 each, the first 40 will cost $20, and so on--by which time the device will probably have failed, gotten lost, or been replaced by a newer model. Or consider function. The designers of handheld readers aim to approximate as nearly as possible the characteristics of a physical book--including, I am told, pages that actually feel like paper; but why bother, when the physical book already embodies these characteristics to perfection?
The most rational form of digital transmission is not an electronic reader posing as a book but an actual library-quality paperback that has been printed, bound, and trimmed at low cost on demand, created from a digital file at point of sale by a machine like an ATM. Test versions of this machine, sponsored by On Demand Books, of which I am cofounder, are or will soon be making books in several locations. A commercial version will be ready for general distribution this summer.
Jason Epstein was the editorial director of Random House for over 40 years and a cofounder of the New York Review of Books. In 2004, he cofounded On Demand Books.
The device betrays a plan to dominate the transition from printed books to electronic ones.
Letters from our readers.
I think the main thing wrong with Kindle is that it will get squeezed out between UMPC (Ultra Mobile PC - sub-laptops) on one side and cell phones on the other. For large pages with lots of images like magazines/newspapers UMPCs will (soon?) sport nicer screens for reading (OLPC). On the other hand for straight prose current cell phones do a fine job and are uber portable ( e.g. www.booksinmyphone.com ).
Well, I heard almost exactly the same account from a buddy 7 years ago (or so) about digital cameras and film... as always new technologies will replace old technologies when the advantages of the new outweigh the nostalgia for the old.
We're not there yet with e-books I agree, but I believe their day will come.
Mike
P.S. I have a kindle. I like it. My decision to buy it was not based on economics but the desire to carry less stuff when traveling; lighter and thinner are not improvable qualities of paper products I imagine.
Regarding Jason Epstein Article About the Kindle
I find it disconcerting that Mr. Epstein has chosen to attack both the new Kindle and ebooks in general in an article published a magazine called Technology Review, let alone in an issue entitled Emerging Technologies 2008. While I believe that that the product is not yet perfected, Mr. Epstein seems to have chosen to attack the ebook model in its entirety and that I find unreasonable, perhaps even suspicious.
First, it is clear from his article that Mr. Epstein has not handled a Kindle or read an ebook using the new E-ink technology. He hasn't tested it out, but has formed an opinion nonetheless. I don't own a Kindle and I'll get to my reason in a moment. Instead, I bought a Sony Reader (model PRS505).
I probably would have gone with the Kindle if I could have actually found one to pick up and try out. If I'm going to spend $400 on an item, I want to see how it feels in the hand. So there's that reason and, oh yes, Amazon's been sold out of them since day 1.
Mr. Epstein attacks the economics of the ebook model, noting that for the Kindle, the first book costs $410 which then drops slowly based on the number of books purchased. This may be wll be true; there is no arguing with the math but if you are a dedicated reader (which I am), the cost savings alone over time of ebooks vs paper books will more than make up for the cost of the device. I use my reader everyday. Its utility is clear and I now have some 400 books on it, mostly novels, short stories, work-related documents and some textbooks. I've probably paid for less than 20 of them; tere's plenty of free literature available on the web, through Guggenheim and other sources.
Pretty much anything public domain is available and free. You just have to go get it. Sounds like a lot of work? Its even easier than going into a bookstore (which admittedly is not only pretty easy, but one of my favorite places)
I will grant that the devices today are crude. They're not as bad as what came before and they are getting better. Back in the day (say, last year) I did manage to read a couple of books on my Treo but it really took some patience. On my Reader, I whip through books at least as fast as their paper versions and maybe even faster than that.
The good news is that I don't have to lug books with me and I can always swap out for another if I get bored or want a change. I always used to carry several books in my briefcase, just in case. Now I don't have to. And you cannot discount something handy, which is that I can change the size of the text.
Last point of contention: Mr. Epstein notes that perhaps the best way to go is an ATM-like device which can print books on demand, which fortunately he apparently had founded a business to do. I won't debate his stance on it, but I'm not sure how such a device will compete. Someone, somewhere, is going to have to refill the machine, which means materials, resupply, parts and chemicals shipped. All those costs add up and the buyer will have to absorb them. An electronic copy has few expenses and is pretty simple, whether wirelessly through the Kindle or downloaded to my Reader. Perhaps Mr. Epstein's point is that, as cofounder of On Demand books, he'd actually like to sell a few. He's certainly entitled to his opinions on the matter but I won't be buying from his book machine; I've got a book machine of my own and he's going to have to prove that his is cheaper and better.
So, a quick observation:
The amazing thing about the ereaders is not where they are in their current state. They're still a little slow and the software that you use to create, organize, edit and finalize the ebooks is crude. Their screens are only black and white and all they can do it is display (with the exception of the Irex Iliad which allows some annotation).
They've gotten better, but they're still not great. We're probably a year or two away from very good and, in my humble opinion, probably five years from indispensability. Want to see that happen faster? Just wait for Apple. Apply will come out with a reader and, just like the Ipod, it will be a pretty, cool device that everyone will want to own in a hurry.
The future of these devices will keep kids from lugging textbooks to and from school, allow them to annotate and make notes in class, even complete assignments and email them to the teacher. They will allow for better metafiction and, eventually, they will probably replace the cell phone, ipod and other handheld devices.
In an issue based on emerging technologies, I find issue with an article that smacks of defending anachronistic self-interest and that has inspired me to write my first article to an editor. In my humble opinion, the only thing wrong with the Kindle is this: A). the product is only in its first edition and B). they're sold out.
In my humble opinion.
As one reader pointed out, it is not material that the Kindle or other forms of electronic publishing have or may have flaws, drawbacks or whatever. There is an aspect of electronic publishing which appears to have been overlooked and that is - conservation of resources and indirectly reduction in pollution.
I am not a conservationist. Yet, consider the fact that electronic publishing will reduce the amount of trees being cut down, which, in turn, will contribute to the 'greening' of our environment and reduction in CO2 levels in our atmosphere. Image the resulting tremendous savings in tree-cutting and increased environmental improvement with the attenuation of the greenhouse effect!
If only some of the major publishers would start publishing in electronic format!
Cecilio Gracias, Guilderland, NY
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1 Comment
Wow
This is an example of the kind of thinking that caused the English to reject the idea of a telephone since there were plenty of young boys to deliver messages. Honestly -- such thinking as I read here is so obselete that I can't believe it -- and I am 81 years ald.
I got my Kindle Dec. 4th, having ordered on the announcement date. I love my Kindle -- it has greatly enabled me to read books that I had no hope of reading again -- as I was an English Lit. major in College, where I read many of them. In addition, the ability to set type font size larger than young kids need is a great boon to me. It has greatly improved my comfort level in reading, for which I am very grateful.
I now have over 400 books on my Kindle, many of which were free as out-of-copyright books which some ebook vendors give away to gain user trust. In addition there is also Project Gutenberg. But I have bought a lot of newer books direct from the Kindle Store as well -- making my Kindle very cheap indeed in the cost of ebooks compared with the cost of the same books in dead tree form. Plus the savings in gasoline and time by not having to drive to a regular bookstore, which seldom have anything I want anyway, and certainly
nothing for free.
Charles Wilkes, San Jose, Calif.
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