Shock and Awe in Babylon

Continued from page 2

By Richard Muller

April 2, 2002

4. The Sand Blizzard. For those of us old enough to remember the 1980 Iranian hostage rescue debacle, in which our helicopters foundered in the sand, the equipment survival of the great Iraq sandstorm was a remarkable achievement. The U.S. military largely sat it out, but afterwards the helicopters could still fly and equipment still functioned. The U.S. had prepared for such a sandblast, but no one could be certain the gaskets and bearing seals would do the job. They endured one of the greatest sandstorms in years, a truly remarkable technical achievement.

5. Absence of Chemical Warfare. Most people, even opponents of the war (including Hans Blix), seem to believe that the Iraqis really do have chemical weapons. Why haven't they used them (yet)?

Chemical weapons are tricky and unreliable. In World War I, the Germans got little or no military advantage from them. They work best against a concentration of unprotected people, as in Halabja, the Kurdish village devastated in 1988 by Saddam's chemical attack. Saddam believes that chemical weapons in his war with Iran helped him bring it to a stalemate.

In chemical suits, our soldiers are hot and slow, so they don't put them on unless a chemical attack is believed imminent. In close-in combat, both sides must suit up; those with the greater training have the advantage. That's the United States.

Saddam reportedly believes that it was fear of chemicals that kept us out of Baghdad in 1991. The Iraqi military may have similar hopes now. The United States has (as of today) held back from the perimeter, wary of launching an attack that could trigger chemical use and harm both soldiers and nearby civilians. Our military may defer entering Baghdad until the Iraqi military surrenders.

6. North Korea. What does this have to do with Gulf War II? I imagine that Kim Jong Il has been watching TV even more closely than you and I. He is probably thinking very hard about the depth of his tunnels, his personal safety, and the vulnerability of his command, control, and communications network. Does he have bunkers that are 300 feet deep? Does he want to start living in them? It may not be the technology that frightens him as much as the demonstrated willingness of the US to attack a foreign leader, even with UN opposition.

I expect reduced belligerency from the North Korean Supreme Leader in coming months. It will be a good time to bargain with him.

Finally, expect more surprises. As Jeremiah said, "All who go to Babylon shall be astonished."