One researcher says the change, though seemingly subtle, is significant enough to possibly cost Google some users. "Using Google from Shanghai, I noticed the extra click," says Guobin Yang, a Columbia University sociologist. "One extra click may sound easy, but it is a huge deal for users, and I'm pretty sure Google will lose users because of this."

As of Friday, there was no reaction from China on this move. Chinese authorities can shut down any website that fails to obtain or renew an ICP license--issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Google has much at stake. Its online offerings in China include a video search service (video.google.cn), online shopping (www.google.cn/gouwu), maps (ditu.google.cn), translation (translate.google.cn), and other services under the Google.cn domain name. "Discontinuance of Google.cn will mean discontinuance of these services, and therefore the real end of Google's China presence.

Yang said from Shanghai that such a departure would be a big deal precisely because the Chinese Internet market appears to have such a strong future. "Having just come from a panel of speakers from major Internet businesses in China, I saw how optimistic Chinese high-level Internet entrepreneurs are about the Chinese market. They are confident about the dynamism of the industry. Who would want to leave such a market?"

If China renews Google's license, the government could still block Google.com.hk, which would force users to obtain special circumvention software, such as Psiphon or Tor, to use proxy computers outside of China. Or, if China cancels the license, Google.cn would no longer function, and Chinese users seeking to use Google search would have to directly type google.com.hk (or any Google home page from a different country) into their browser. If that home page was blocked, they'd have to use circumvention software to reach it.

Canceling Google's Internet license could also affect the pace of innovation in China. "If Google can't compete in that market, it makes the market less competitive," MacKinnon says. "It may well strengthen Chinese players in the short term, but it also results in a somewhat more closed and less global environment, which some people who are quite prominent in the Chinese Internet industry have warned may, in the long term, affect innovation in China."