Business

The Investment Outlook Sours

(Page 2 of 2)

  • Thursday, October 16, 2008
  • By Mark Buchanan

But while most VC firms will take a more conservative approach to investing, that does not mean funding will dry up completely. "Companies with good plans will still be able to raise money," says Howard Anderson, also of the Sloan School and himself an experienced venture capitalist. "But funds will take longer to raise money. And you'll see fewer 'big bang' introductions of new companies that cost a fortune."

Others say that venture-capital funds will feel pressure to ask entrepreneurs to cut costs and work with less capital, and that investors will have less patience with underperforming companies. This pressure was evident in a recent presentation by Sequoia Capital, a prominent venture-capital company with a successful investment record. Last week, in an "emergency meeting" with the CEOs of its portfolio companies (details of which were leaked online), Sequoia representatives warned companies to cut costs, reduce staff, and focus on profitability in preparation for a dramatic downturn.

Certainly, Anderson says, there's likely to be a noticeable shift from investment in long-term and more speculative research projects to shorter-term development of technologies that promises a quicker financial payoff.

Nevertheless, most experts think that both investment and innovation will persist as they have through previous economic downturns. Some observers even suggest that the current economic crisis could create as many opportunities as it destroys. For one thing, Lo points out, a tremendous number of opportunities have been created in the banking and financial-services sectors. "I would expect an unusually large number of startups to be focused on new technologies for addressing the issues that led to our current crisis," he says. In particular, Lo mentions the development of new electronic-trading and risk-management tools.

The austerity and pain of an economic recession could also have positive consequences in the long term, Lo believes. He suggests that the financial crisis will lead to not only a clearing out of the financial-services sector, but also to much stronger regulation, which will have beneficial results. "No doubt the recession, which I suspect will last at least two years, will be painful," Lo says, "but during that time, markets and regulators will develop a series of innovations that will lay the groundwork for the future growth of the global economy, which will be spectacular."

Antoinette Schoar, a professor of entrepreneurial finance at MIT, agrees that looming changes on Wall Street will create new opportunities. "I think the best VC funds won't have trouble raising funds," she says. "Greater regulation of the banks, and the disappearance of investment banks, will [also] provide a lot of interesting investment opportunities for private investors."

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Gaetano Marano

246 Comments

  • 1216 Days Ago
  • 10/16/2008

>>> maybe it's true but they'll always go only to BIG companies! >>>

we read (everyday and everywhere!) that governments, universities and venture capitals invests billions dollars/euro in advanced studies, new.space companies and (especially) clean energy researches, but it's NOT true, or, at least, it's true ONLY for BIG and/or already existing companies!

I'm not optimist... when the markets storm will end, great part of the capitals will again/still/always go to the banks and to stock exchange and its speculations rather than to REAL products and markets!

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wtfchuck

5 Comments

  • 1216 Days Ago
  • 10/16/2008

Re: >>> maybe it's true but they'll always go only to BIG companies! >>>

What planet are you from?

Here (Earth, United States) money is invested in new technology in many many ways.  The government (through grants) funds research at universities across the country.  Also, the govt through DARPA funds advanced technology research at universities and companies big and small.

Venture capitalists invest money in start-up companies when the technology is close to becoming realized in a way that is profitable.  They do so speculating that they will make profits when the company goes public or gets bought by a big company.

I'm not sure at all what you're claiming about investment money only going to BIG companies.  In fact BIG companies also invest quite a lot in small companies and even fund research at universities.

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zig158

64 Comments

  • 1215 Days Ago
  • 10/17/2008

Google

Small companies come up with ideas and do the initial research, then a big company comes along, likes the idea, buys the small company and puts a lot more money and man power into the idea. See Google!

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Phineas

127 Comments

  • 1214 Days Ago
  • 10/18/2008

Opportunity Knocks

I think I get it. Buchanan is saying that even in a dour market there is going to be opportunity for the thoughtful investor. VC money is still available and the right venture will attract it.
For those who say "If I'm so smart, why ain't I rich?", there is opportunity aplenty. Just season your bravery with a little prudence.
The largest companies started small.

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