Plans to purposefully re-engineer the world's climate got their first serious committee hearing yesterday.
The idea that we might be able to
"geoengineer" the planet to purposefully change the climate has
clearly moved from the fringes into the mainstream. Momentum has been building
in recent years: an essay in an academic journal by a Nobel Prize winning
scientist in 2006, articles in the Wall Street Journal and Foreign Policy, a
largely private gathering of researchers at Harvard.
Recently things have really
broken out. In addition to multiple articles and books in the
popular media, the United Kingdom's Royal Society, the authoritative national
academy of science there, issued an in-depth review of geoengineering and
President Obama's science advisor, John Holdren, has repeatedly
stated that geoengineering must be on the table as a possible approach to
addressing climate change.
Yesterday, the House of
Representatives' Committee on Science and Technology held a hearing that its
chairman, Bart Gordan (D-TN), said was, "the first time that a
congressional committee has undertaken a serious review of proposals for
climate engineering."
Gordan was quick to say that this
doesn't mean he supported geoengineering, and that the consensus at the hearing
seemed to be that no one should deploy geoengineering until we've done a lot
more research. But the very fact of the hearing confirmed that influential
people are starting to take geoengineering very seriously. It's no longer just
a subject for gee-whiz fascination, with science-fiction-like
scenarios such a vast parasol
launched into space to shield the earth from the sun. Now scientists are
formulating detailed research plans, start-ups are inventing new geoengineering
technologies, and politicians and foreign policy experts are considering what
all of this might mean for international relations.
So, why the sudden enthusiasm for
proposals to tinker with the climate? These ideas aren't new, but until
recently they've been largely kept under wraps while attention has been focused
on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There are probably three main reasons for
the change. First, some view
geoengineering as a cheap way to avoid costly conversions to zero-emissions
technology, a potential technological fix that could help them stave off
climate legislation. With geoengineering as an option, they argue, there's less
of a rush. We'll just cool the planet until we can get around to switching to
cleaner forms of energy.
But this could be mind-blowingly
stupid. One of the most popular geoengineering approaches--shading the earth
with a haze of sulfate particles in the upper atmosphere--would very likely
lead to severe droughts. There are other
potential side effects, but a purposeful act that causes the failure of
crops for potentially hundreds of millions or billions of people could also lead
to international conflict. Even geoengineering enthusiasts have admitted
there's a chance of war.
The second reason why geoengineering
is getting a serious hearing is that scientists are growing increasingly
concerned that, even if we commit to drastically cutting emissions, we've
already waited too long. By the time we actually reduce emissions, enough
greenhouse gases will have accumulated to cause serious climate disasters. We
may need geoengineering, then, in addition to fast cuts in emissions.
The third reason is that
geoengineering is cheap, so cheap that a wealthy individual could do it.
There's growing concern that unless we develop a science-based international
consensus about the real dangers of geoengineering, someone will go off and do
it on their own.
These last two reasons seem to
have been in the back of Gordan's head during his opening remarks.
"Geoengineering carries with it a tremendous range of uncertainties,
ethical and political concerns, and the potential for catastrophic
environmental side-effects. But we are faced with the stark reality that the
climate is changing, and the onset of impacts may outpace the world's political
and economic ability to avoid them," he said. "This issue is too
important for us to keep our heads in the sand. We must get ahead of
geoengineering before it gets ahead of us."
Not everyone is taking things
seriously though. Just before the committee got underway, the ranking
Republican on the committee, Ralph Hall (Texas), turned to Gordan and asked,
"You can stand a little fun about that outrageous thing we're going to
talk about today?" Then, during the hearing he compared geoengineering to
"flying elephants."