Potential Energy

Is the Recovery Act Working?

Two reports out Tuesday argue it is, but what's most important--from an energy perspective--is what comes next.

Kevin Bullis 08/24/2010

  • 13 Comments

On Tuesday both the United States Vice President's office and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued separate reports about the impact of the Recovery Act of 2009.

In general the CBO report was favorable. Its estimates of how much the Recovery Act will increase deficits over 10 years increased by some $27 billion compared to its original estimates (issued when the law was passed), but it concluded that the economy would be worse off without the stimulus package. It also estimates that the law increased gross domestic product by between 1.7% and 4.5% in the most recent quarter (from April to June). And that the law lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points and increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million.

The Vice President's report was even more positive. It claimed, for example, that because of Recovery Act investments the US is on track to cut the cost of solar power in half by 2015. It also claimed that, "With $8 billion dollars in funding, the Recovery Act is beginning to make high-speed rail reality across the country." That might be a stretch. High-speed rail will require billions more in non-federal investment to become a reality.

The Recovery Act has indeed helped kick start significant research projects and led to the groundbreaking on several factories for advanced energy products. But to meet its long-term goals of creating a strong and vibrant economy based on clean energy, what's most important is not necessarily what's happened so far, but what will happen in the next couple of years. Will the investments started with the Recovery Act continue? Or will they dry up under budgetary pressures? What's more, will incentives be put in place, such as a price on carbon, help drive market adoption of new green technologies?

For a close analysis of the impact of the Recovery Act, check out this review in the current issue of Technology Review magazine.

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gblaze44

96 Comments

  • 531 Days Ago
  • 08/25/2010

CBO?

After the CBO's fiasco over healthecare, I would never call it "nonpartisan" nor would I trust what it says anymore.

Reply

rvaccare

7 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

Re: CBO?

This blog is pure partisan garbage.  So, the recovery act adds $27 billion in deficits, but that's okay, because it kept a few people in a job paving highways that didn't need to be paved in the first place?  And the CBO's methodologies of determining the "success" of the recovery act are so legitimate that the best they can do in pinpointing the effect on the GDP was a range between 1.7 and 4.5%, on unemployment a range between 0.7 and 1.8%?  I could come up with such figures off the top of my head... if I believed that was the true effect.  This is all passed on as news, positive news no less?  There is far more credibility in the Farmers Almanac's predictions about the weather this winter.

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joecarlyon

1 Comment

  • 526 Days Ago
  • 08/30/2010

Re: CBO?

It sounds like you live in Illinois...

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YankeeBruce

21 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

What Recovery???

The CBO report simply assumed that the "Stimulus" package performed as it was intended.  The authors specify that spending X dollars produces Y benifit in accordance with their models, and then did the math.  I believe this is known as begging the question. 

Useless report, worse article.

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luddite

407 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

leveraging statistics

What, and the Republicans, the most corrupt party in the history of American politics, who won a federal election through fraudulent means, had successfuly turned Health Care into a billion dollar boondoggle, and could never quite balance their books without cooking them, were'nt guilty of obsfucating the results of an economic forecast? Please, enough with the comedy.

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keithsc

3 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

The Intangibles

Perhaps the saddest fact about all of the recovery spending is what's not being talked about - the intangibles. Here is THE intangible: what would be the state of our economy without any of this spending? The opponents either deny it, are ignorant, or are just stupid.
BTW, I HATE the fact we have to go into debt due to the irresponsible actions of the citizens of this country. However, I want a life for the children of this country.

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gblaze44

96 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

Re: The Intangibles

There is a better way, just cut spending and cut taxes, the economy will recover, quickly too.

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keithsc

3 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

Re: The Intangibles

Ok, cuts spending, cut taxes. That's the first part. What's next? You said the easy thing, but have you thought about what really comes next?
People in this country want simple solutions and refuse to acknowledge the complexity of the problems we face. These problems can't be solved by sound bite solutions.

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gblaze44

96 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

Re: The Intangibles

Really? What problems are you talking about exactly? You're being vague, is it employment? That would solved by cutting taxes and stopping government interference.
One huge solution this would provide would be the incredible deficit we have, $1.3 trillion just this year in spending. Our Deficit is to extremely high, if we remain on the path we are going we will have hyper-inflation which would lead into of all likely-hood depression.

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keithsc

3 Comments

  • 530 Days Ago
  • 08/26/2010

Re: The Intangibles

Agreed regarding the deficit. But what about government's impact on the economy? Do you know how much R&D is done by the government and then put into practice by private companies? Research dollars companies don't want to spend! The DoD is big percentage of the budget and relies on the private sector. Let's look at the social programs - cut social security? Medicare / medicaid? So let's go after the "pork" which represents a small portion of the budget. Going back to the deficit, I happen to believe most of the bail outs were necessary to avoid a complete collapse of the world economy. Anyone who doesn't believe this has their head in the sand. And those bail outs really angered me because I have an 800 credit score and have managed my money responsibly. But here I am, bailing out those who were greedy and / or just plain stupid.

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gblaze44

96 Comments

  • 526 Days Ago
  • 08/30/2010

Re: The Intangibles

But what about government's impact on the economy?
Do you know how much R&D is done by the government and then put into practice by private companies?


Hard to say, yes Government does the R&D that most companies will not do because being deemed to risky. Some of this is understandable, example a company most likely will not spend their R&D money on fusion reactor if it will take 40 years or longer to see a return on investment, if ever. That's not the reason companies are made.
I have to add that most companies look to less risky short return on investments instead of long term riskier returns due to litigation issues, companies already pay billions in litigation costs whenever something goes wrong. Imagine the litigation if a privately run space shuttle blew up over Texas, the company wouldn't last long. You want companies to spend more on riskier R&D, cut down on litigation.
And yes companies do spend a lot on R&D in the U.S,

In the U.S., a typical ratio of research and development for an industrial company is about 3.5% of revenues. A high technology company such as a computer manufacturer might spend 7%. Although Allergan (a biotech company) tops the spending table 43.4% investment, anything over 15% is remarkable and usually gains a reputation for being a high technology company. Companies in this category include pharmaceutical companies such as Merck & Co. (14.1%) or Novartis (15.1%), and engineering companies like Ericsson (24.9%).[3] Such companies are often seen as poor credit risks because their spending ratios are so unusual.
This from Wikipedia.

Let's look at the social programs - cut social security? Medicare / medicaid?

Well if it wasn't for Government and poor management that they have of both Medicare and Medicaid as well as Social Security, we wouldn't be in the issue we are today. I say make the medical system more competitive, open cross-state border between medical insurance companies, you will see cost fall considerably.

Going back to the deficit, I happen to believe most of the bail outs were necessary to avoid a complete collapse of the world economy.
Anyone who doesn't believe this has their head in the sand.


Sorry but I don't, I work in government as an Engineer, though I have a physics degree as well as EE degree. I have seen more of the worst, companies that should have failed because of poor management or poor execution, on and on. Other companies that would have stepped in and been more successful have to wait, because after all once the spending stops the companies will then go under. We're just delaying the inevitable when we have bail outs.
Cut taxes and you will see the economy rebound.
Cutting taxes will actually increase the money the Government is bringing in, it increases the tax base.

And those bail outs really angered me because I have an 800 credit score and have managed my money responsibly.
But here I am, bailing out those who were greedy and / or just plain stupid.


Oh I agree whole heartily! I have excellent credit as well, my wife and I are financially responsible, we don't buy on credit unless we have the money already. I don't think we should bail out anyone! Let them fail and someone (company) who is smart enough to do it right should take their place.

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Thucydides

35 Comments

  • 529 Days Ago
  • 08/27/2010

Is the Recovery Act Working?

The official rate of unemployment is already higher than the projected rate without all the "stimulus spending", so we are looking at a failure of epic proportions already.

Since the official rate excludes people who have dropped out of the labour market, and those who are underemployed, the true rate is far higher (I have actually seen estimates as high as 17%), so sucking wealth from the productive economy through taxes, regulation and malinvestment into political cronies and supporters can only make the situation worse.

Responsible people and smart corporations are paying down debt as rapidly as possible and making whatever adjustments they can to weather the coming storm. Ironically, "Technology Review" provides leads to some of the technologies that would allow people to get off the grid and survive without centralized grids or political pork. For the rest of us, victory gardens, a supply of tools and do it yourself books on home repair, vehicle and small appliance maintenance and emergency medicine may become the essentials for surviving and thriving the next few decades.

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javs

97 Comments

  • 523 Days Ago
  • 09/02/2010

Do You Know How to Make Recovery Work?

Edward de Bono wrote that "You can analyze the past, but you have to design the future."

Is the Recovery Act Working? is about the past. Do You Know How to Make Recovery Work? is about designing the future.

I claim to have designed the future using several disciplines, like systems architecture and the Theory of the U, helping to see the whole that has been trying to emerge since the 80s to creatively destroy the electric power industry, but that a powerful lobby has not allowed.

An introductory post on Do You Know How to Make Recovery Work? is available in Technology Review under Kevin’s blog post “Energy Bill Consigned to Lame Duck Session” as A Message to US Senator Harry Reid About a Minimalist Energy Bill <== you may hit the hyperlink.

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Bio

Kevin Bullis is Technology Review’s energy editor.

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