Potential Energy

U.S. Congress Considers Geoengineering

Plans to purposefully re-engineer the world's climate got their first serious committee hearing yesterday.

Kevin Bullis 11/06/2009

  • 14 Comments

The idea that we might be able to "geoengineer" the planet to purposefully change the climate has clearly moved from the fringes into the mainstream. Momentum has been building in recent years: an essay in an academic journal by a Nobel Prize winning scientist in 2006, articles in the Wall Street Journal and Foreign Policy, a largely private gathering of researchers at Harvard.

Recently things have really broken out. In addition to multiple articles and books in the popular media, the United Kingdom's Royal Society, the authoritative national academy of science there, issued an in-depth review of geoengineering and President Obama's science advisor, John Holdren, has repeatedly stated that geoengineering must be on the table as a possible approach to addressing climate change.

Yesterday, the House of Representatives' Committee on Science and Technology held a hearing that its chairman, Bart Gordon (D-TN), said was, "the first time that a congressional committee has undertaken a serious review of proposals for climate engineering."

Gordon was quick to say that this doesn't mean he supported geoengineering, and that the consensus at the hearing seemed to be that no one should deploy geoengineering until we've done a lot more research. But the very fact of the hearing confirmed that influential people are starting to take geoengineering very seriously. It's no longer just a subject for gee-whiz fascination, with science-fiction-like scenarios such a vast parasol launched into space to shield the earth from the sun. Now scientists are formulating detailed research plans, start-ups are inventing new geoengineering technologies, and politicians and foreign policy experts are considering what all of this might mean for international relations.

So, why the sudden enthusiasm for proposals to tinker with the climate? These ideas aren't new, but until recently they've been largely kept under wraps while attention has been focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There are probably three main reasons for the change. First, some view geoengineering as a cheap way to avoid costly conversions to zero-emissions technology, a potential technological fix that could help them stave off climate legislation. With geoengineering as an option, they argue, there's less of a rush. We'll just cool the planet until we can get around to switching to cleaner forms of energy.

But this could be mind-blowingly stupid. One of the most popular geoengineering approaches--shading the earth with a haze of sulfate particles in the upper atmosphere--would very likely lead to severe droughts. There are other potential side effects, but a purposeful act that causes the failure of crops for potentially hundreds of millions or billions of people could also lead to international conflict. Even geoengineering enthusiasts have admitted there's a chance of war.

The second reason why geoengineering is getting a serious hearing is that scientists are growing increasingly concerned that, even if we commit to drastically cutting emissions, we've already waited too long. By the time we actually reduce emissions, enough greenhouse gases will have accumulated to cause serious climate disasters. We may need geoengineering, then, in addition to fast cuts in emissions.

The third reason is that geoengineering is cheap, so cheap that a wealthy individual could do it. There's growing concern that unless we develop a science-based international consensus about the real dangers of geoengineering, someone will go off and do it on their own.

These last two reasons seem to have been in the back of Gordon's head during his opening remarks. "Geoengineering carries with it a tremendous range of uncertainties, ethical and political concerns, and the potential for catastrophic environmental side-effects. But we are faced with the stark reality that the climate is changing, and the onset of impacts may outpace the world's political and economic ability to avoid them," he said. "This issue is too important for us to keep our heads in the sand. We must get ahead of geoengineering before it gets ahead of us."

Not everyone is taking things seriously though. Just before the committee got underway, the ranking Republican on the committee, Ralph Hall (Texas), turned to Gordon and asked, "You can stand a little fun about that outrageous thing we're going to talk about today?" Then, during the hearing he compared geoengineering to "flying elephants."

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devassocx

110 Comments

  • 820 Days Ago
  • 11/09/2009

Congress?

This is the last thing this body should be
allowed to consider.

Even the thought of such a thing is beyond scary, let alone letting a political body have any power
to decide to do such a thing.

Reply

Guest (rhapsodyinglue)

  • 820 Days Ago
  • 11/09/2009

Re: Congress?

devassocx,

So, if it becomes apparent that we've already crossed certain tipping points... inland glaciers that provide water to millions will disappear, Greenland ice sheet is beyond repair and will dramatically raise sea levels and/or permafrost locked GHGs set us on a path to true disaster... you would choose to see it play out rather than attempting to artificially correct what we have artificially created?

When serious scientists are warning that we might be forced into these measures, open debate before the eleventh hour would seem beneficial.

That said,there probably are better methods than the oft cited sulfate haze, which could cause droughts unless confined to polar regions and certainly does nothing to address the issue of CO2 based ocean acidification.  Methods to enhance ocean carbon sinking and/or enhancing marine clouds would likely carry less risk of serious harmful side effects.  They are also methods which should be getting funding, starting with small scale trials and growing progressively larger in order to get real scientific answers to their efficacy and potential negative effects.  Of course for many in the environmental movement, their support for science stops short of wanting these questions answered.

Reply

kstauff

130 Comments

  • 820 Days Ago
  • 11/09/2009

Desperation?

Does it ever seem that the AGW crowd is growing more desperate by trying to scare the public with schemes like geoengineering?

Reply

Guest (rhapsodyinglue)

  • 820 Days Ago
  • 11/09/2009

Re: Desperation?

kstauff,

Those who understand the science are certainly getting very concerned.  Scientists began to have concerns 25 years ago.  By the early nineties the debate had ended within the reputable scientific community and concerns began rising further as it became apparent that the political will to address the problem was almost nonexistent around the world.  Another 15 years later... scientists from leftish academic institutions as well as those scientists employed by conservative military organizations are all very concerned about the potential environmental, economic and geopolitical consequences of climate change.

Reply

kstauff

130 Comments

  • 819 Days Ago
  • 11/10/2009

Re: Desperation?

So your contention seems to be that Dr. Lindzen at MIT and Dr. Spencer at NASA are not reputable scientists?  Care to elaborate on that?  Really, I'd like to see your rebuttals to their work in this matter.  My guess is that you don't even know who they are, that you've long since closed your eyes to skepticism because for whatever reason, you're drinking the kool-aid.

Why is it that the so-called "reputable" scientists like Mann and Briffa, whose methodologies and data have been obfuscated for years, are the ones that are above your reproach?  Why is it that you seem unaware that just recently Briffa's work supporting the "hockey stick" was found to be at best incomplete and at worst potentially fraudulent?  And why should I be concerned with who you consider  reputable when you seem completely unaware of these facts?

What deeply concerns me is that those responsible for the control of information, namely the media, have seized upon climate change as a way to sell advertising.  Politicians have taken the cause up to scare the public into all manner of schemes designed to tax consumers and line the pockets of the well connected.  And here you are falling for and/or promoting this lie to the public.  When you are ready to look at ALL of the science and not just those observations which support your ideological viewpoint, then come back and tell me who's reputable.

Reply

Guest (rhapsodyinglue)

  • 819 Days Ago
  • 11/10/2009

Re: Desperation?

I assume you mean the Dr. Spencer that resigned from NASA and is now at Univ of Alabama?  That would be the one that doesn't believe in evolution.

RealClimate.org is a very good site that has rather methodically addressed the "science" presented by the few deniers that still exist.  While there are certainly still many disagreements in the scientific community about the details of greenhouse warming dynamics... the number of scientists that deny it is real and man made are a handful against hundreds or thousands.

I will offer no defense for media and politicians with regard to their motives or actions.  Neither, however, has anything to do with the scientific process and the conclusions which have been reached based on decades of peer reviewed research.

Reply

kstauff

130 Comments

  • 818 Days Ago
  • 11/11/2009

Re: Desperation?

Then I'd be glad to hear your opinions regarding Mann and Briffa's reluctance to publish the raw data they used to create their respective hockey sticks.  If you hold scientific methodology in such high regard, how can you excuse the obfuscation of data by these two researchers?  How do you account for the fact that the Medieval Warm Period, which was never previously a matter of recent debate, is missing from their reconstructions of past climate?

These are not trivial problems with their research, and they do not speak well for the credibility of the field of climatology.  I would further state that your assertion that there are only a handful of scientists opposing AGW theory is understating the case.  There are many scientists who disagree with the theory and many more that disagree with the degree of it's more outlandish predictions (e.g., Al Gore's apocalyptic visions).

And with regard to RealClimate, do you really intend to cite a website that routinely deletes well-reasoned comments that question their methodology?  Is this how you believe science should be conducted?  If so, I'm very afraid for what is passing as science these days.

Reply

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Guest (rhapsodyinglue)

  • 817 Days Ago
  • 11/12/2009

Re: Desperation?

As for RealClimate, anyone that is interested can check it out and discover that skeptical views are indeed there, including questions about the medieval warm period and reasonable and respectful answers are given.  I would be willing to bet that any papers which have been published suggesting that AGW is not supportable have been discussed in thoughtful scientific terms.  That said, RealClimate is not trying to conduct science, merely present science to the public.  Science is conducted through research, peer review and publication.

Though having a Ph.D. myself, it is not in a field directly related to climate science.  My opinions of any particular scientists data are therefore not something anyone should be swayed by.  My overall opinions are based on my understanding of the scientific method and peer review, and the fact that there is an overwhelming consensus at this point.

Even if there are two climate scientists with bad data (and if it isn't the two you mentioned, there would undoubtedly be two somewhere) that hardly speaks poorly "for the credibility of the field of climatology"... a field with at least many hundred scientists if not thousands.  Science is about consensus... any given scientist's work should be viewed with skepticism until reviewed and accepted by peers and the larger community.

Al Gore is not a scientist... he has nothing to do with the scientific consensus.  If Al Gore has his own predictions that aren't cited to a particular paper or researcher, they should be summarily dismissed as coming from someone that isn't qualified.

Reply

kstauff

130 Comments

  • 812 Days Ago
  • 11/17/2009

Re: Desperation?

Al Gore's presentations and film cite the work of the scientists Mann and Briffa, so it looks like your admonition that he should be disregarded is wise.

I must disagree with your assertion that Science is about consensus.  My understanding is that Science is about the analysis of the observable world around us coupled with testable hypotheses which may support or disprove those hypotheses. 

A brief review of the history of Science will show frequent consensus regarding a particular subject destroyed by a single experiment, better methodologies or new methods of observation.  Obvious examples are found in astronomy, nuclear physics and medicine. 

Science is NOT about consensus, it's about what may be reasonably concluded from repeatable experiments.  It's not about the conjecture of climate models or the apocalyptic predictions of researchers who are motivated to save their theories at all costs.  I suppose we'll have to politely disagree here.

Reply

bassmang5

9 Comments

  • 820 Days Ago
  • 11/09/2009

It's allready happening

I think this is a very serious concern to bring up and just wanted to point out that Geoengineering is all ready going on. Remember this article from 2008 entailing China's plans to enhance the weather during the Beijing Olympics. They call it weather modification in the article but it seems to be of the same line of thought. If you think about the implications of the technique implemented in the linked article it is very easy to see how war could become a part of this equation.

http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/20463/?a=f

Reply

Pyle

5 Comments

  • 820 Days Ago
  • 11/09/2009

About time

Flying elephants?

Why do we elect these guys?  Where do they come from? 

Water scarcity, climate change, pandemic illness, these are the types of problems I would expect Congress to discuss.  Scary?  Yes, they are all scary, but what other organization on this planet has the resources to affect real change and implement the changes necessary to impact these issues? What is frightening is that the Congressman who made that statement will likely be reelected next cycle and retain his seat on the House Science and Technology Committee.

In addition to writing the laws that protect our freedoms, Congress's job is to consider the best use of our collective resources to improve our security and quality of life.  It is about time they listen to issues that have a time horizon past the next election cycle and devote real resources to meeting the upcoming global challenges. 

The world is passing us by as our leaders argue about death panels for grandma. (Criticism is of the debate, not the validity of the healthcare crisis.)  Somebody is going to figure out programming artifical intelligence, engineering the global climate, synthesizing superflus, etc.  I am still of the mind that the US government teamed with our educational institutions should be the leaders in these areas and not multinational corporations,  dictatorships, or well meaning(or otherwise motivated) ultra-wealthy individuals. 

Reply

LWBales

1 Comment

  • 820 Days Ago
  • 11/09/2009

Blocking sunlight

Putting something in the atmosphere to reduce heat gain to the earth seems like it would have side effects like crop and vegetation reduction, and that PV and solar thermal systems would produce less. To me, a far better, and down to earth solution to reduce heat gain on the earth, would be to require all roofs to be white or reflective, and all ours roads & parking lots, and plowed farm fields are black and absorb more radiation from the sun, we need to coat roads and parking lots with white not black, buildings should be shrouded with lightweight frames that can grow crops or vegetation, as one man is doing in Tokyo on highrise buildings, this keeps the building cooler and helps protect it, Farm fields should have a winter crop, in the midwest, the plowed farm fields are just black dirt for 9 months of the year. We also cannot just keep growing with more people and more buildings, we need zero population growth or things will only get worse.

Reply

kstauff

130 Comments

  • 819 Days Ago
  • 11/10/2009

Re: Blocking sunlight

Data gathered from the ERBE satellite experiment shows that as radiative input has increased over the last couple of decades, so too has radiative output.  This data confirmed the logical suspicion that as the sun's heating of the earth increases, the earth responds by radiating more heat into space.  It also directly contradicts multiple studies by AGW proponents which predict that GHGs would "constrain" the outgoing radiation, thereby refuting another leg of AGW theory. 

This fact, along with the fact that despite increasing CO2 levels the earth has not warmed appreciably in the last decade, should indicate to you that there are serious flaws in AGW theory.  These are flaws which some scientists and politicians would rather you not know about because it means the end of the gravy train of funding and tax revenue.  Don't be fooled by the hype and fear-mongering tactics.  Just look at Al Gore's bottom line: he's gone from a worth of about $3 million in 2000 to over $100 million now.

Reply

norhussein

1 Comment

  • 814 Days Ago
  • 11/15/2009

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Kevin Bullis is Technology Review’s energy editor.

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