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Kevin Bullis is Technology Review’s energy editor.

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Tuesday, November 03, 2009

The Climate Bill Is Doomed

The question is, could that be a good thing?
By Kevin Bullis

Last week researchers and policy experts gathered at MIT to talk about geo-engineering--a subject that's becoming more popular in the face of concern over inaction on climate change.

The upcoming United Nations climate change convention in Copenhagen seems unlikely to produce the binding and stringent agreement needed to sharply curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, greenhouse concentrations continue to mount, driving scientists who were once opposed to the idea of tinkering with the planet to reconsider it.

Now they've got another reason to be worried. Earlier this year a climate bill that would've limited greenhouse emissions and helped renewable energy sources compete with fossil fuels seemed well on its way. In June a version passed the House. But then other matters--mostly health care reform--distracted Congress, and a Senate version of the bill got bogged down. The Senate recently took up the bill again, but yesterday a report in the Washington Post declared that "there is almost no hope for passage" of the bill.

Democrats are divided over the bill, and Republicans have been vocally opposing it. If the report is right, countries meeting in Copenhagen will have even more reason to criticize the U.S. for inaction, and to use that as a reason to delay a climate treaty or water it down.

That's one way to look at it, at any rate. Here's another: Copenhagen is probably doomed already--why the rush to push legislation through? That's essentially what Republican Senator George Voinovich (Ohio), who opposes the current bill, reportedly said last week, "Wouldn't it be smarter to take our time and do it right?"

It certainly is hard to be against getting something right. But will slowing things down lead to a better climate bill? Probably not, as long as the chief objection is that the bill will make energy more expensive, something that seems unavoidable. But if the delay can lead to a better system for distributing those costs equitably, and if along the way inefficient subsidies can be weeded out and emissions caps tightened (wishful thinking?), it could be worth the wait.

Comments

  • 'tinkering' with the planet
    It's funny to hear people look horrified when someone suggests we DO something that 'tinkers' with the weather.  Launch solar shades, put sulfuric acid into the stratosphere, increase cloud cover..

    This is because we have, albeit unintentionally, been tinkering on a grand, ever increasing scale with the atmosphere for the last 150 years.  We now emit 1% of the global total of CO2 yearly, and have for last 40+ years.  We cut forests globally, changing albedo (sunlight, heat reflected off planet) and build black pavement colored roads that absorb heat.  We fly planes so much that on 9/11 global temperatures dropped a large amount more than usual as very few planes were spewing cloud cover versus normal days where they are crossing the US and the planet by the minute.

    Star trek episodes aside, where Piccard comes back and mentioned the weather control bureau, looks like we should plan or account for the effects whether we limit them or not.  And certain weather modifying schemes are now within reach of the world's wealthiest individuals, who could perform 'weather terrorism' and decide to unilaterally build plants to spew sulfur clouds, etc.

    Me, I'd just like to quietly retire to (soon to be) tropical beachfront property in Montana by 2050 :)
    Rate this comment: 12345

    erbium
    11/03/2009
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    • Re: wrong direction
      "We fly planes so much that on 9/11 global temperatures dropped a large amount more than usual as very few planes were spewing cloud cover"

      You do know the global temp went UP (not down) for the several days after 9/11, because the particulate matter emitted by planes was not there to reflect more sunlight back into space.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      colinnwn
      11/04/2009
      Posts:43
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    • Re: 'tinkering' with the planet
      Where did that 1% number come from? There have been no accurate measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels that I am aware of. There are estimates... an estimate however is not a hard scientific number... it cannot be quantified if it can't be measured.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      cheadrick
      11/04/2009
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  • Interesting...
    The government's inability to deal well with issues pertinent to America in general makes me wonder why we even try to reach international agreements that we inevitably fail to uphold.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    Observer10
    11/03/2009
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    • Re: Interesting...
      The only agreement I recall us not upholding recently is the ABM treaty, for which we informed Russia we were leaving.  That treaty prevented us from deploying anti-ballistic missile technology to defend our country.  The Russians have had ABM's around Moscow for decades despite that treaty.

      The US Senate voted not to ratify the Kyoto treaty by a vote of 99-0, and as such, we're not a party to its foolishness.  I doubt that we would ratify any treaty out of Copenhagen either, and that's good to know since, unlike other countries, we're bound by our constitution to uphold the treaty as the law of the land.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      kstauff
      11/04/2009
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  • good!
    I for one, welcome failure of such an ill-conceived
    and costly(for no reason) piece of legislation.

    A lot of what has been pushed about climate change
    is slowly showing itself to be wrong...and contrary
    to statements of some...the debate is not over.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    devassocx
    11/04/2009
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  • Doomed?
    Is this the same climate treaty I heard about that calls for the industrialized nations to pay massive reparations to the undeveloped third world nations because we fouled the atmosphere getting industrialized and they didn't? And "developing" nations like China and India are exempt because they are still developing? And the US would surrender its soverignity to the new world order body that will run this treaty compliance? And we will massively tax fossil fuels and drive up the cost of energy and manufacturing leaving us with a paper-shuffling service economy? Then I'm glad to hear this particular trteaty is doomed!!!
    Rate this comment: 12345

    wcfloyd
    11/04/2009
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    • Re: Doomed?
      No. Cap & Trade taxes Americans for energy use and redistributes it to political supporters like GE.

      The Copenhagen Agreement is the one you're thinking about.  It has a number of potential penalties for industrial countries.  For the US it could be 0.7 - 2.0%.  Obama may sign it, but the Senate won't ratify it. That doesn't mean one of the unelected, unconfirmed czars won't implement it anyway.

      That's why the vote in 2010 is so important.  Our economic survival is at stake.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      RD
      11/06/2009
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  • Well on its way?? Really???
    Kevin:

    You're either unaware or glossing over recent history.  The House climate bill BARELY passed by 7 votes IIRC.  The real problem with this ridiculous legislation is that Americans see through the charade of AGW. 

    As you noted in your posting, CO2 levels have been increasing, yet there has been no correlating increase in temperature to match the increase in CO2.  True, there have been minor spikes in temperature, and minor troughs as well, but overall, temperature increase has been flat relative to CO2 increase.  So the theory of AGW simply isn't holding up.  Here's hoping any further taxation of energy fails.

    And if there was any real desire to keep energy costs low while not producing CO2, the proponents of AGW would look seriously at nuclear.  Since they're not, I can only conclude that they're insincere.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    kstauff
    11/04/2009
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    • Re: Well on its way?? Really???
      Those you call AGW, ARE in favor of nuclear energy. It's the Progressives who have been blocking it.  Didn't Obama just order the shutdown of Yucca Mountain?  My wife wrote an article on nuclear vitrification, commissioned by Sierra Magazine (Sierra Club) about 15 years ago.  Their goal was to show it's negative side. All the 13 different experts (including Sierra's own) were neutral or very positive. Sierra refused to publish the article because "we don't publish anything that puts nuclear power in a good light".

      so don't blame people against the concept that mankind has a significant impact on climate as being anti-nuclear.
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      RD
      11/06/2009
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  • Other factors
    CO2 isn't the problem.

    In Maryland, a new study in the International Journal of Climatology – by researchers from the University of Maryland, Purdue University, and the University of Colorado in Boulder – found that “most land-use changes, especially urbanization, result in warming. A clear exception is conversion of land from other uses to agriculture, which produces relative cooling, presumably because of increased evaporation.” Human-induced changes (warming) in climate have been viewed by most scientists as primarily the result of increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The current paper is the latest of a number of studies in recent years that are shedding light on the climate change impact of land cover change.
    “What we highlight here is that a significant trend, particularly the warming trend in terms of temperatures, can also be partially explained by land-use change,” said Niyogi, a Purdue earth and atmospheric sciences professor and the Indiana state climatologist, who is the corresponding author of the article.The study found that, the more vegetation covering an area of land, the cooler its contribution to surface temperature; Conversion to agriculture results in cooling, while conversion from agriculture generally results in warming. Deforestation generally results in warming, with the exception of a shift from forest to agriculture.
    - from biofuelsdigest

    And...
    Landmark study re-models soot impact in climate change, rivals carbon
    US researchers have remodeled soot emissions, concluding that soot is causing nearly 60 percent of the global warming impact of CO2, and because soot has a shorter lifecycle than carbon emissions (that can last for up to 100 years), tackling soot offers a “faster win” against climate change than carbon strategies.
    The article, in Nature Geoscience, concluded that previous soot models had not previously accounted for the absorption of reflected sunlight. In possible confirmation of the data, significantly higher soot concentrations are found in the Arctic than Antarctic, and observations in the northern polar region show higher ice-melting rates not previously explained by the carbon emission model of climate change.
    “Between 25% and 35% of black carbon in the global atmosphere comes from China and India, emitted from the burning of wood and cow dung in household cooking and through the use of coal to heat homes. Countries in Europe and elsewhere that rely heavily on diesel fuel for transportation also contribute large amounts,” commented nature.com on the sources of soot emissions.

    So let's halt the CO2 legislation, and fix the real problems - aerosol pollutants, and deforestation.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    RD
    11/06/2009
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    • Re: Other factors
      The real problem is overpopulation. Ironically the only country in the world that has taken serious steps to check population growth is the same country that is becoming the popular US scap goat on which to blame carbon emissions, China.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      TooMany
      11/15/2009
      Posts:47
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      • Re: Other factors
        I always enjoy comments like these from the anti-humanist gonzos. Perhaps you should move there; I saw some nice pictures recently of what they're doing to control their population.
        Rate this comment: 12345

        kstauff
        11/17/2009
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        • Re: Other factors
          I'm very much a humanist, but also a realist.  Too many people leads to too much _____(fill in the blank).  It's only a matter of time before the recommendations of the Rockefellar and Ford Foundations gain acceptance.  Those will make China's one-child law look tame.
          Rate this comment: 12345

          lasertekk
          11/18/2009
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          • Re: Other factors
            Right, we heard the same thing 30 years ago with "The Population Bomb", and yet there are now 3 times the people living at a much higher standard of living.
            Rate this comment: 12345

            kstauff
            11/19/2009
            Posts:94
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