Potential Energy

Lackluster Sales of First Plug-in Hybrid

Chinese automaker BYD has only sold 100 of the vehicles in 8 months.

Kevin Bullis 09/18/2009

  • 15 Comments

At the end of last year, the Chinese automaker BYD became the first company to sell plug-in hybrids, a type of vehicle that could dramatically lower fuel consumption by allowing people to commute using electricity alone (an internal combustion engine would still provide power for long trips).

Now supporters of the technology will be hoping that its performance on the market isn't a harbinger of things to come. It's been reported that over the eight months since, only 100 of these cars have been sold (via Green Car Congress), far less than an anticipated run of 3,000 to 4,000 vehicles.

In the United States, the first plug-in hybrid will likely come from start-up Fisker Automotive later this year, followed by the much publicized Chevy Volt next year. GM, through its heavy marketing of the Volt, has staked a great deal of its reputation on the car. It's expected to sell for $40,000-$45,000, and the Fisker vehicle--a luxury sedan--will sell for $87,900. The BYD vehicle hasn't been able to sell its vehicles even though they're much cheaper--about $22,000. Of course, we're talking about different markets.

All three of these vehicles have large battery packs capable of storing enough energy for over 40 miles of driving. Toyota, which this week unveiled a prototype of its own plug-in hybrid at the Frankfurt auto show, is trying a different strategy--its car will only provide about 12 miles of all-electric driving. The smaller battery pack required could make such cars cheaper than longer-range vehicles, although it's not clear Toyota can beat BYD's bargain basement price--the company's conventional hybrid, the Prius, costs as much as BYD's plug-in hybrid. But Toyota is planning to test a few hundred of its plug-ins under real world conditions before bringing them to market. And BYD will reportedly start selling its plug-in hybrid in the United States in a couple of years.

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gabrielg01

450 Comments

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

China is the wrong market for this car.

Not to be mean or anything, but Biyadi (Byd) is selling this product in the wrong market, and this explains why their sales are so poor.

The Chinese populace, as a whole, is very far from being eco-conscious. They drink polluted water, eat foul food, and breathe in smog that reduces visibility to half a mile or less. And they are perfectly fine with this, as long as they feel that their economic lot is improving.

Do you really expect the average Chinese citizen to drop 20-grand on an eco-friendly car?...That is DELUSIONAL.

Biyadi should sell its cars in North America, and Northern Europe.

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meyers7

11 Comments

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

China and Pollution

Yes, and why should the rest of the world ingratiate China's GDP, with China producing goods cheaper than anyone else because they have no environmental standards or controls that raise production costs? The West preaches environmental consciousness while purchasing billions from a country that does not. Seems like an oxymoron. I have been to China and have seen their environmental disasters first hand.

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big_e

1 Comment

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

Chinese Environment

Isn't it bad enough that many people in the west (especially the US) feel the government needs to protect their citizens from themselves?  Now we need to protect China from itself?  I am not a big supporter of sending US dollars over there for goods, but if the people of China wish to live in a cesspool to improve there economic situation, who are we to deny them that right?  After all, it is THEIR environment they are screwing up.  Why do we feel that we should have anything to say about what they do in their country?

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UgoSugo

14 Comments

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

Re: Chinese Environment

You think that people reading technologyreview are highly educated and smarter than the average Joe, and then comes people like you with fast food grade reasoning. You still don't get that if China should decide to cash now all the money they lent you, US would become not even fourth world in a blink of an eye. So please, save us from this Bush era crap of sending money to China.

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gabrielg01

450 Comments

  • 875 Days Ago
  • 09/23/2009

Re: Chinese Environment

dear UgoSugo, the math is a bit different than what you claim. The Chinese hold about 10% of the US debt, but this represents about 70-80% of their entire national savings. So, if they decide to dump their dollar holdings, they will basically hurt themselves 8 times more than they will hurt the US.

Such an event would also mean the end of the Communist Party - the Chinese people will rise up in outrage, asking where all this money disappeared? The Chinese people may not care about their environment, but they care about their money.

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skingw

31 Comments

  • 875 Days Ago
  • 09/23/2009

Re: Chinese Environment

Dear gabriel, ever heard a word call "MAD"? Let's assume we throw economical a-bomb toward each other, everything existing are wiped out. at least chinese people can still feed ourselves by making those goods, selling them, and starting all over again. Anyway, those 2000 billion stuff is just results of last 20 years' work. And how your american bankers / consultants / environmentalists can survive? selling McDonalds?

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gabrielg01

450 Comments

  • 875 Days Ago
  • 09/23/2009

Re: Chinese Environment

You think through stereotypes..."bankers selling McDonald's food".

The US was fine without China before.

We could even say that the US became a sick country because of "Chimerica" came into existence. Selling everything, including our social values, for some cheap Chinese products. It's a bad deal for America.

So, the sooner we divorce ourselves from China, the sooner we will regain our footing.

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ridgerunner32

2 Comments

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

Re: Chinese Environment

I have news for you. The environment doesn't have boundaries. It's our environment that they are screwing up too. Pollution from China shows up in California a a few days.

Reply

Olaf

3 Comments

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

Where's the socket?

Here in the US, people in urban areas--New York journalists, for example--dismiss plug-ins, because they park their cars on the street or in parking lots, where they can't charge them. Wouldn't most of the people in China who can afford this car have the same problem?

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1faron

1 Comment

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

"First" Plug-In Hybrid?

What about Aptera?  They have a plug-in version of their all-electric cars available in the US.  There is no shortage of after-market plug-in hybrids on the road today.  The claim of first is certainly questionable here.

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waltinseattle

1 Comment

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

"1st" plugin hybrid

"when we buy their wheat with our gold, we have their wheat and they have our gold.  When we buy our wheat with our gold, we have our wheat and our gold."  a famous president of the U.S. of A

When we buy their goods we have their polution several days latter, just like when we "recycle" our electronics to them, we have it back when we buy their garlic (near 100% the source of packaged here on the west coast) and their farmed fish etc, etc and etc.  Out of sight, but never out of the foodstream.

Am I a Sinophobe?  hardly!  Just a rationally informed person looking to his own self interest.

Aptera:  why does everyone but me seem to positively hate the styling?  I'm sorry they can't offer the greencar tax-rebates because they are a motorcycle, that sux.

Lets all remember that most Lithium comes from western China.  The next source will probably be the altiplano deposits.  Oh politics, always raising your ugly self! I wonder if we have any domestic deposits of exploitable value?  anybody know?

Reply

Gcanno

24 Comments

  • 877 Days Ago
  • 09/21/2009

Imagined reason

I believe the benefits of Hybrids at this point in time cause more harm to the wallet and environment.

Everyone misses the point that current combustion technologies have not reached maturity.

A clean diesel Volkswagen with low resistance tires set a 67 MPG record in the U.S recently. A heavier foot would but you under the Prius's mileage. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/automobiles/13MILEAGE.html

The ECOnetic Fiesta that Ford sells in Europe is a  five-passenger hatchback that gets 42 mpg and emits less CO2 than a Toyota Prius and starting $13,000.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/02/ford-will-give/

And these Vehicles do not take into account weight savings that Amory Lovins has outlined in his presentations.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMTCNOlozTA

Exploiting available Efficiencies is a faster avenue right now to reducing car pollution,reducing oil consumption and providing a temporary window of stability in the world demand for oil until the next technologies are ready.

In my opinion the Technology story here, is why the CHINESE didn't go the route of exploiting these efficiencies.

Although I'm not as naive to believe my last sentence it usually comes down to Politics(Government) and a Corrupt Corporate structure prevalent in  Finance and Corporations today.  

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skingw

31 Comments

  • 876 Days Ago
  • 09/22/2009

One Child / One Car Policy for Environment

I am a chinese and I don't see why so many Americans are fussing about Chinese environment policy or market or culture or whatsoever. If you look at the number of CO2 emission per capital or the number of vehicles owned by one family, it seems to me the best environment-friendly policy human beings could have is that US should adopt the One Family One Child policy, and One Family One Vehicle policy.

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Cyruscosmo

7 Comments

  • 873 Days Ago
  • 09/25/2009

Re: One Child / One Car Policy for Environment

I am an American, lived here all my life. I can say without a doubt that we are NOT perfect. We eat too much have too many children and use up more resources than we should. We stick our collective noses into places they don't belong etcetera, etcetera. Any country on the planet has done the same, we are all people after all.

Until I took a trip to another country I had NO idea just how over bloated America is. I will say that I was rather embarrassed to be an American when I visited London. Don't get me wrong here the base idea behind America is sound but there is a LOT of politics designed to sidestep that idea.

I have to agree with the one child one car policy. I would however change it to two children. The reason is because I grew up with two brothers and we had some of the most enduring good memories to share. It would be pretty lonely to be the only one. The only reason I can see for having huge families is for tax reasons. (More population more money for the government) You know the drill. I am single unmarried and resent the fact that I end up paying more taxwise than a family with two parents and three children. They are more of a burden on the economy and resources than I am yet I have to pay more. Welfare is a joke… seen too much and known too many people on it to think any differently.

I am actually routing for China. One of the reasons we can't get quality work done here in America anymore is because of the people who insist on being paid more for less. They form unions to force employers to pay them more and turn out so so products. If a company wants to stay afloat here they have to source out goods from other countries. That is the way business goes after all. We blame everyone but ourselves for the problems we make.

Get this, in the state I live in they charge a tax for goods NOT sold. In other words stock sitting on a shelf gets taxed whether or not is sells. And the people around here wonder why all the businesses move to other states or countries.

I would hazard a guess as to why they don't sell that car in the united states. Most likely has to do with the laws we make to keep the competition out of this country. I mean really… can the "average person" who drives the most to and from work miles per day in this country actually afford a 45k$ car?  That is pretty close to half of what my house is worth.

And from what I have seen coming off the "Big Three" assembly lines I would not buy that Volt joke for 25K.

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paulfmeyer

18 Comments

  • 867 Days Ago
  • 10/01/2009

BYD lackluster sales

Rants aside, the vehicle has technical merit and BYD appears to have the ambition and talent to pull this off.  They started life as a battery maker and supply a significant percentage of the world's cell phone and laptop batteries.  Admittedly, thier lead acid lineup is sub-par, but is targeted toward low-cost shoppers.

It seems to me that the challenge of selling the BYD EV in China is truly a market mis-match, compounded by sales channel and distribution shortcomings.  This wasn't built as a home-market product, but they haven't set up overseas distribution - yet.

It's a chicken or egg problem.  Make the product first or set up distribution first?  I'd warrant they've opted to develop the product and then acquire the distribution.

China, Inc. is shopping the world for bargains, and recently bought the "Hummer" brand - likely for purposes of establishing a sales/service/dealer network for truck based vehicles that needn't pass the stringent emmissions/safety standards of passenger cars (isn't that why GM created Hummer in the first place?). 

Now, Geely is after Volvo - again, not for the vehicles but for the global infrastructure.  Volvo's are sold everywhere - if Geely buys it, within three years the cars will be assembled and sold around the world, but nearly every part and subassembly will be made in China.  They will transition from aftermarket supplier and contract manufacturer to Global OEM in one stroke. 

For example; Fiat's purchase of Chrysler was motivated to provide an established channel for Fiat's vehicles to US markets - not to save Chrysler's aging lineup.  They won't be selling any RAM pickups in Europe, but you can bet they'll be selling Fiat Panda's in Detroit.

BYD has ambitions to be a global car company, and some very heavy hitters including Warren Buffet have bought into thier business plan. 

GM, Chrysler and Ford have reduced thier U.S. dealer networks by over 3600 dealerships - what will these dealers do?  Given few options, some will happily become dealerships for new brands - be they from China or somwhere else. 

Hyundai was once in a similar position.  They had to launch via new dealerships built from scratch at first, then they started converting established dealers (it took them 20 years).  The difference is that China has the capital (ours) to push thier agenda in a very compressed time period, and thier competition is in a very weakened state - making entry less challenging.

Auto industry innovations generally take 10 years to get through product lifecycle development - expect Chinese automotive brands in your neighborhood in less than three years - at first they'll target the economy market, and commercial vehicle (truck based SUV) market.  Within a few years they will target and dominate the mid-size market.

For those who disagree, I have one question - have you bought a U.S. made TV lately?

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Bio

Kevin Bullis is Technology Review’s energy editor.

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