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Kevin Bullis is Technology Review’s energy editor.

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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Down with MPG, MPGe, G/100M, KWh/100M

It's time to drop miles-per-gallon ratings, or any other one-size-fits-all fuel economy measurement for vehicles.
By Kevin Bullis

Miles-per-gallon ratings have always been less useful to consumers than other measurements of fuel consumption, but as we move to using biofuels and to driving cars powered by electricity, they are becoming completely useless.

What's needed instead is a system that tells consumers how much they can expect to pay to operate a car and how often they'll have to fill up. The system should also tell regulators how much gas will be consumed (if the point of a policy is to reduce oil imports, say) and how much pollution will be emitted. The figures given would be dollars per month and stops per month for consumers, and regulators would be told the pounds of key pollutants emitted per year and gallons of gas consumed per year. The figures would be personalized based on basic information on driving provided by consumers.

There's more on how this could work below, but first here's what's wrong with miles-per-gallon (mpg) ratings.

What's wrong with miles per gallon?

The recent debate about General Motors' claim that the upcoming Volt plug-in hybrid will get 230 mpg is a case in point. The number is nearly meaningless, in some ways overselling the car and in some ways hiding its potential benefits. The fact is that the car won't use any gas at all for most commutes, relying only on electricity stored in the battery--but it will still consume energy and result in power plant emissions. And on long trips, that fuel economy will drop to 50 mpg or less as a gas generator switches on to recharge the battery.

There are similar problems with flex-fuel vehicles that can burn either gas or ethanol. They will get far fewer miles per gallon running on ethanol than running on gasoline. And then you pair a flex-fuel vehicle with a plug-in hybrid and things get even worse. Consumers won't know what they're getting with a miles-per-gallon rating.

Of course, this is something experts have been talking about for years. Some have proposed switching to a miles-per-gallon equivalent rating, which accounts for both the gas burned and the electricity consumed. But this doesn't take into account the fact that this rating will change depending on how far someone drives in a plug-in hybrid or whether this person uses biofuels.

And it doesn't address a fundamental problem with miles-per-gallon ratings that holds true even if everyone's using gasoline. The point of a car is not to consume gallons of gasoline. The point is to traverse miles. That's why some have suggested (and some countries have implemented) a fuel- or emissions-per-distance measurement. That would tell me how much gas it will take to travel a certain distance, say 100 miles. A variant, meant to account for the possibility of using electric power or gas, is to put that in terms of energy used--kilowatt-hours per 100 miles.

But this measurement still doesn't work when I'm switching between gas and electricity. And it doesn't directly tell me what I really want to know, which is how much the car will cost me to drive or how often I'll need to stop for gas.

It really shouldn't be that difficult to get these relevant figures, or at least get estimates that are close enough to be useful. Here's a very rough outline of how a system for doing this could work.

The new system

A person considering buying a car would go to a website, something like fueleconomy.gov, and provide a little information: home address, work address, number of days commuting. Total miles traveled per day and per month could be calculated using Google Maps or something like that. Tack on estimates for weekend driving and errands based on surveys. The system would then use data from vehicle tests and from local electricity and fuel prices to calculate cost per month of daily driving and how often refueling will be needed. It would provide numbers for costs using gas or biofuels. It would also automatically provide information about the cost of several longer trips. For someone in Boston, for example, it could give the cost of a trip to New York, a trip to a ski resort in northern Vermont, and a cross-country road trip to LA.

The details of the vehicle tests would have to be worked out. They would have to measure the rate of energy consumption continuously until the car runs out of its stored energy, whatever form or forms that's in, and over a couple of standard drive cycles like the ones used now to calculate city and highway miles per gallon. The data would have to include rate of electricity use and gasoline use, for example, at 30 miles when a plug-in hybrid is still running on batteries, and at 100 miles, when it is using gasoline. And it would have to include data from the use of alternative fuels, if these have significantly different energy density than gasoline (as ethanol does).

In the future the output data could be optimized using actual driving data harvested from GPS data about actual driving conditions in a given area, or even during different times of the day. Consumers could offer more information if they wanted to have a better estimate (including info about where they shop, when they drive, and even driving styles gathered from GPS data). Or they could keep the information given to a minimum if they're concerned about privacy. Even if the estimates are rough, they would be more useful than miles-per-gallon figures given today.

If someone decides to purchase a car, figures (without personal information) would be sent to regulators so they can estimate gas consumption and vehicle emissions.

The system I've described no doubt has flaws and can be improved upon. But the general point I think remains. It's not that hard to calculate personalized figures that can be far more useful than miles-per-gallon ratings, especially as we get a greater variety of vehicles in the coming years.

Automakers may balk. It may be more difficult for them to predict whether their vehicle mix will satisfy regulations without some one-size-fits-all standard. So I propose that at first they're given a backstop--some standard they can use to meet regulations. If the key regulation is carbon emissions, then grams per mile, as is done in Europe, makes sense. Miles per gallon equivalent could also work, since it accounts for electricity use as well as gas or biofuels use. Something like the draft EPA standards GM used to derive its 230-mpg rating could also be useful, if the real concern is petroleum consumption, for an aggregate sense of fuel consumption (although it's useless for individuals).

My guess, however, is that, at least after a couple of years of experience, automakers will be able to estimate whether they can meet regulations. And they may find that it's easier to meet them when consumers actually know how much they're paying to operate a car. I think I'd be more likely to buy a fuel-efficient car if, rather than vague miles-per-gallon ratings, I were provided with clear dollar amounts to consider.

Comments

  • MPG confusion
    What about Miles Per Dollar (MPD)?  Daily postings of stocks, wheat and other commodities are normal.  We could have daily postings of a gallon of gas, diesel and kwh electricity.  Calculating the MPD could be a simple chart. 

    The ethanol and bio fuel industries are going broke.  I wouldn't look forward to a future containing them as a regular source of fuel.

    MPD (Miles Per Dollar) is the ultimate information we are looking for essentially.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    owlafaye
    08/27/2009
    Posts:1
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    • Re: MPG confusion
      MP$ sounds like an elegant starting point. One single number that's easy to compare. But for plug-in hybrids, this number will vary significantly depending on how far a person drives per day. I think adding info about daily driving distances, and obtaining a single dollar per month figure, would be more helpful.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      Kevin Bullis
      08/31/2009
      Posts:92
      Avg Rating:
      4/5
  • A few thoughts
    Good blog.

    Leasing industry?
    Some time in the future the leasing industry is going to (have to) support hybrid or electric to a significant extent.
    Anyone know if they are working on some easy models?

    In Europe, if you drive 30.000 km per year, diesel, in a midsize, midrange saloon, around 25-30% of your yearly car-costs go to fuel.
    If an electric car costs a bit more, and the electricity cost-per-kilometer is around 10 times lower, then 'fuel' cost could go down below 5%. (Will many still care at that level?)

    It's going to be more complex, that is for sure. (As complex as the mobile phone tariffs?)
    0-50KM electric drive
    0L/100KM – 0.5€/100KM – 11gCO²/KM (+some isotopes)
    over 50KM diesel drive
    5L/100KM – 5€/100KM – 139gCO²/KM
    (city, highway, ...)
    Rate this comment: 12345

    P_O
    08/28/2009
    Posts:2
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • KISS
    I realize nerds like to have as much data as possible if for no other reason than to prove that they can baffle the rest of us with BS. So how about a simple system that tells the average driver what he wants to know about the cost of operating her vehicle. What we want is mobility. We are not addicted to oil. We don't care what powers our vehicles although we should care that we make the most efficient use of energy and that we don't pollute the environment. We are addicted to running around in overweight metal boxes powered by a mechanical system (the Internal Combustion Engine ICE) that uses energy at something less than 20% efficiency. So what we need is way to measure the cost of mobility. If your car gets 30mpg and gas is $3/g you are getting 10 Miles Per Dollar(MP$). An Electric Vehicle will get you mobility at a rate of 100 MP$. A light weight EV designed for optimizing personal mobility and not oil company profits could get you 1000 MP$. Kill the ICE.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    Solarspike
    08/28/2009
    Posts:1
    Avg Rating:
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  • Oranges and apples
    I think we are really trying to compare oranges and apples in here. trying to aggregate a dollar amount in the mixture will only make things worse once prices change every minute.

    I would stay with MPG (kilometers per litres in my case) as ONE of the relevant information, making sure the type of fuel is expressed. For hybrid cars, I would like to see the kms per kilowatt of the electrical part. Consumers would be responsible to put both parts together based on their style of driving and car models. I know, for example, I can drive more on manual cars (14 km/l) than in automatic ones (11 km/l) on my style for city use.

    So my proposition would be to have a table, very much like we have to buy food.

    Fuel powered engine
    - Fuel type
    - Tank capacity
    - Kilometers per litre (in city / in road)
    - Emission per litre (in city / in road)
    (details on polluents)

    Electrical engine:
    - Battery capacity
    - Kilometers per KWh (in city / in road)
    (and keeps going)

    This way the consumer can focus on what is most important for each one according to their reality (if I drive in the city, most of the use would be on electrical part, so relevance from fuel information could be minimized for me).

    I think it is jsut a matter to turning public most of the data they already use to qualify their engines and cars.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    mirfy
    08/28/2009
    Posts:2
    Avg Rating:
    2/5
  • Next Generation Automobiles
    I find as a technologist and Business consultant how easy it is for knowledgeable people to leave reality behind.

    People choose cars for different reasons, Performance, prestige and some for practicality. Even when we focus on practicality we are faced with a different set of choices. What does the vehicle get used for most. Commuting to the place of work, taking family members to school and recreational activities or from sales call to sales call. When you realize there are as many vehicles on US roads as people. Almost all yardsticks of proposed defining fuel economy and efficiency is of minimal value unless it fits your life style and preferences.

    A vehicle uses X amount of energy to be manufactured, Y amount of energy in maintenance per year though out its life and Z amount of energy per mile over its life and finally omega amount of energy to be disposed of. Yes we missed what if this vehicle has an accident or two during its life then add the amount of energy related to getting it road worthy again.

    For each of the original sentiments to purchase the vehicle and for its subsequent owners we could arrive at an approximation of how a specific vehicle helped endanger our planet or its carbon footprint or the cost per mile.

    Every automobile manufacturer on every continent will manipulate the data in their favor and in doing so will mislead the buyer. Marketing is unfortunately a powerful weapon when it is in the wrong hands….The automobile industry.

    We all know how batteries suddenly fail, a flash light, why you need a jump start, fires in your laptop computer …..What happens some time very soon when those dependable batteries become like every battery before it dead and unchargeable. They have to be disposed of, more energy and more pollution.

    Energy employed, energy lost, and its cost can be converted to any units people understand but it is not meaningful unless it mirrors your past, present and future individual life style and transport needs.

    Rate this comment: 12345

    smaine2
    08/28/2009
    Posts:1
    Avg Rating:
    1/5
  • Cars....servers....
    In trying to evaluate energy efficiency of servers, I came to many of the same conclusions.  Just because it is possible to create a single energy/performance ratio, that doesn't mean that we will be better off with one.
    --Bruce
    Rate this comment: 12345

    bruce.nordma...
    08/31/2009
    Posts:1
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