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Kevin Bullis is Technology Review’s energy editor.

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Friday, June 05, 2009

Loopholes in the Climate Bill

Some powerful industries may yet find ways to shift the burden of reducing emissions to others.

One of the potential problems with the energy and climate bill now working its way through Congress is its size. It's bound to be full of hidden loopholes that could help various interest groups, probably making doing something to slow climate change more expensive.

Economists have already pointed out at least one subtle problem that could lead to higher costs. Certain industries, such as the steel industry, will be awarded allocations for emitting greenhouse gases according to how much they produce in the first place, and these allocations will be updated periodically, as their output changes. This gives them the perverse incentive (as economists like to put it) to generate more emissions so that they can reap more of the potentially valuable allocations, which they can sell on a carbon market. The overall carbon emissions for the United States won't increase--the overall cap doesn't change. But giving more allowances to steel manufacturers means that other industries won't get as many. That could drive up the cost of electricity, for example.

The solution, says Gilbert Metcalf, a professor of economics at Tufts University, is to change from output-based updating of allocations to setting allocations based on emissions before the law goes into place.

Today, the Washington Post uncovers another subtle detail of the bill that it says could be worth millions of dollars to oil refiners.

During the final days of the drafting of a 946-page climate bill, Rep. Gene Green (D-Tex.) won support for an amendment that deleted a single word and inserted two others. The words could be worth millions of dollars to U.S. oil refiners.

The Green amendment deleted the word "sources" and inserted "emission points." In the arcane world of climate legislation, that tiny bit of editing might one day give petroleum refiners valuable rights to emit carbon dioxide when it otherwise might not have been allowed. Refiners could get the extra allowances in return for cutting carbon emissions by 50 percent at a single point of a vast refinery complex instead of slashing emissions by 50 percent for the entire facility.

The article goes on to mention a couple more loopholes, and surely in this long and convoluted bill there are more that aren't obvious. Some more may simply be the result of unclear wording. Again, they won't change the total emissions as long as the overall cap stays in place, so the bill still has some teeth. Indeed, Robert Stavins, director of the Environmental Economics Program at Harvard University, says that the political wheeling and dealing could be a good thing: it could get more people behind the bill, which could make it more likely to pass.

That said, some of the worst polluting industries--as long as they have strong lobbyists--might get away with doing little to change their ways, passing on the burden to others.

Comments

  • Import Loophole
    Just a thought but are the manufactures of imported goods going to be required to pay the Carbon Tax also or just American produced goods? Remember Ross Perot and his giant sucking sound, this will be even bigger.

    Do we really want to drive [the what little we have left] production of goods we make out of this country because of high Carbon taxes?
    Rate this comment: 12345

    jmaximus9
    06/08/2009
    Posts:86
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • Try this one!
    Well, Thank God, the Steel industry did not admit collusion in 2005, so they could claim a higher output and higher baseline emissions to start with! Besides, in these days of Government ownership, control and regulation of industries (why, they even permitted mergers!), and in the context of Millenium Development Goals - with implied 'rights' to just about everything under the sun - the industry could claim their output is controlled by the Government, for which reason, it could transfer the liability for emissions control to the Government.

    Socialized Climate Change. Sounds unbelievable? Think again!
    Rate this comment: 12345

    gprao
    06/08/2009
    Posts:10
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
    • Re: Try this one!
      This entire bill is really just a massive tax on fossil fuels, one that will be paid by the consumer.  You can be sure that each lobby will find a way to pass the cost, one way or another, to the consumer.  The money will go straight to the government, who will in turn find some way to waste it on something that we don't need, likely a new entitlement like socialized medicine.  That's all this is.

      And we as consumers are stuck paying the tax, because no matter what they like to tout as new "green" energies that will supposedly replace fossil fuels, they can't compete with fossil and nuclear.  And when was the last time a tax like the one you pay on gasoline was repealed?  That's right, never.  That's because the government is as addicted to promising entitlements as consumers are on energy.  Get used to it; your cost of living is about to increase substantially.  Here's hoping your income does too!
      Rate this comment: 12345

      kstauff
      06/08/2009
      Posts:120
      Avg Rating:
      4/5
      • Tell Congress HR 2454 Needs Consumer Protections
        Forcing electricity providers to commit to a reduction of 17 percent below 2005 levels by as early as 2020 will require electricity providers to make almost immediate investment decisions to meet the compliance deadline. The switch to higher priced fuels could undermine the long-term success of the program and leave consumers holding the bill—for decades.

        We've created an area for folks to tell Congress that HR 2454 needs to protect consumers. You can write Congress here: http://sn.im/tellcongress
        Rate this comment: 12345

        americaspowe...
        06/19/2009
        Posts:3
  • Lobbyist Full Employment Bill
    This is a massive tax on industry and consumers, and it will create a new class of enviro consultants, which contribute nothing to the prosperity of America, but will be a drag on the economy. Follow the money.  Political contributions will soar to campaigns.  VOTE OUT ANYONE ADVOCATING THIS SCAM. 

    P.S. The Europeans are starting to figure all this out and are voting out the progressives! 
    Rate this comment: 12345

    RD
    06/08/2009
    Posts:133
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • Only half of the pain..
    The tax aspect is just one half of the extra cost to consumers. The other half will come when Wall Street starts trading (the new swaps) and speculators drive up the price of allocations, like they did with oil at $150 barrell last year.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    z0rr0
    06/08/2009
    Posts:59
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
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