Potential Energy

How Will Tariffs on Solar Panels Affect Innovation?

A U.S. Commerce Department anti-dumping decision could help some U.S. companies and hurt others.

Kevin Bullis 05/17/2012

  • 28 Comments

The United States Commerce Department concluded today that Chinese solar panel manufacturers are dumping solar panels in the U.S., and is penalizing them by imposing a 30 percent tariff on 62 solar manufacturers in China and a general 250 percent tariff on other solar panel manufacturers in China. That’s on top of a small tariff of 2.9 to 4.73 percent it announced earlier this year.

The decision may increase solar panel prices in the U.S. and will undoubtedly have political repercussions, as China has threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs. It could also have an impact on innovation, but exactly what that impact will be less clear. 

The new tariffs could help some solar panel companies in the U.S. that are working innovative technology get to market by raising prices here. But they could also hurt U.S. companies that supply materials and equipment to manufacturers in China, as well as installers who benefit from cheap solar panels imported from China. Many of these companies are also innovating—with new technology and financing models--to bring down the cost of solar, so hurting them could slow down progress toward solar power that’s cheap enough to compete without subsidies. One prominent solar researcher with ties to Chinese companies argues that trade barriers can only hurt innovation.

We break down the issues here, in a story we ran after the smaller tariff was announced in March.

The tariff decision is preliminary and may yet be overturned later this year.

Tesla Still Losing Money, But Plans an Early Debut for Its Sedan

The automaker plans to ship its Model S electric sedan in June, rather than July.

Kevin Bullis 05/09/2012

  • 6 Comments

Tesla Motors announced today that it is on track to start delivering its Model S in June, a month ahead of schedule. It moved up the date of the first deliveries because it’s nearly completed testing on 80 cars it’s built so far.

Tesla continues to lose money. It lost nearly $90 million in the first quarter of 2012, compared to a loss of about $50 million during the same period the year before. It’s staying afloat in large part thanks to a Department of Energy loan. It continues to meet the milestones required by the loan, so it still has access to the money, unlike Fisker Automotive, another small automaker selling electric vehicles, which  recently fell behind on its DOE milestones and lost access to its loan funds.

Tesla expects a large shot of revenue in the second half of the year, once it starts shipping the Model S. Of the $560 to $600 million it expect to bring in during 2012, 90 percent will come after June. It plans to deliver 5,000 cars this year, and it already has 10,000 reservations for the car.

The expected revenue jump won't necessarily make the company profitable though (see "Will Tesla Survive?"). That could depend on whether the cost of making the car is low enough for it to break even, something that seems unlikely given that it is a completely new vehicle.

How Do You Know An Autonomous Vehicle Has Seen You?

MIT's Media Lab demonstrates a system that lets driverless vehicles communicate with pedestrians.

Kevin Bullis 04/26/2012

  • 28 Comments

The Media Lab seems to have solved a problem that we don't yet have.

Suppose it’s the future, and you are walking along a busy street. You pass a quaint shop or two, and decide to cross the street to get to a coffee (I was going to say to visit bookstore, but of course those probably won't be around by the time this problem arises).

Swiveling headlights and directional speakers (black cans in the middle) allow this autonomous vehicle prototype to communicate with pedestrians.

You step off the curb, look to your left, and there is a car coming toward you without a driver—one of the many autonomous vehicles that seem to be appearing in trendy neighborhoods. It slows down and stops at the intersection.

Do you dare step out in front of it to cross the street? Does it know you are there? Or will it suddenly accelerate and break your legs? There’s no driver to make eye-contact with.

A group led by Kent Larsen at the Media Lab has a solution. The researchers have outfitted a prototype electric vehicle (it’s about the size of a desk) with lights that look like eyes and the sensors from an X-Box 360 Kinect. The lights swivel to look at you when the sensors detect you, and blue LEDs flash to indicate the car has seen you. Directional speakers swivel toward you, too, and the car tells you it’s safe to cross. The system can also flash bright white LEDs to get your attention. 

Sonar sensors can detect if a pedestrian is too close to the side of the car. If they do, LEDs in the wheels to turn from green to orange and red—getting redder as you get closer—to warn you, and let you know the car knows you are there.

Just a few years ago, the possibility of autonomous vehicles driving themselves around seemed remote. It would require massive infrastructure, new laws, and completely changing driver’s minds about how reliable robotic cars could be. But now Google is testing driverless cars, and automakers are steadily adding features that allow drivers to opt out of more driving. Adaptive cruise control has taken over braking and acceleration, even in some mid-range cost vehicles. Next year, BMW will sell a car that can drive itself at speeds under 25 miles per hour.

A researcher puts his hand close to a sonar sensor, causing LEDs in a wheel to turn orange.

Autonomous vehicles seem far more plausible now. But it will probably be many years before municipalities allow them to drive around in cities. They’ll at the least require that a driver is behind the wheel in case the car goes berserk and decides to mow down a  latte-bearing pedestrians.

Bio

Kevin Bullis is Technology Review’s energy editor.

Subscribe to the Potential Energy RSS Feed

Advertisement
Advertisement

Facebook

Advertisement