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Monday, November 17, 2008

"Get Coal Out of the System"

Combating climate change requires dealing with coal emissions--and misinformation, an MIT figure says.
By David Talbot

To reduce greenhouse-gas emissions enough to avert the worst effects of climate change, "we have to get coal out of the system." That succinct bottom line was delivered yesterday by Henry Jacoby, professor of management at MIT's Sloan School and codirector of MIT's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, in a keynote talk at a conference in Washington, DC. Jacoby didn't mean that coal can't be used--just that its carbon-dioxide emissions will need to be removed and disposed of by underground burial. The good news, he said, is that although the scale of the enterprise would be massive, there is no apparent technology obstacle: "We can solve the technology. We can solve the storage." But the roadblocks ahead are monstrous: uncertainty over whether the Obama administration and Congress will institute a carbon cap-and-trade policy, unclear economics of installing CO2 capture and storage technologies, and widespread public ignorance.

Jacoby pointed to "coal's catch-22": when it comes to burying the CO2, "you can't have the technology without the price, but you can't have the price without the technology." In other words, you won't drive technology adoption unless there's a cap-and-trade or other disincentive on emitting CO2, but you can't know what it will cost to do this--and thus how to operate under such a policy--until you start installing the needed technologies at huge scale. (Today, coal supplies about half of U.S. electricity, but no U.S. coal plant sequesters its CO2.) And right now, the general public--despite awareness of the benefits of, say, wind and solar power--doesn't have much of a clue what "carbon capture and sequestration" means. In surveys, Jacoby said, Americans ranked it as the least advisable approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions--even though it's one of the most important ones. (He thinks some people might be confusing it with pouring toxic waste down the nearest hole.) The industry's recent "clean coal" ad blitz doesn't help much, he said, because the ads gloss over the central importance of CO2 burial and don't spell out what that would entail. "They need to explain what 'clean coal' means in this context. If you want to save the coal industry, explain to the public what is involved in this technology," Jacoby said.

Comments

  • CO2 storing
    I know some want to do this but I think it's far
    from clear that CO2 is any significant problem.

    Before anything is done in this area emotions must
    be removed and cold hard science conclusions followed, not someones WAG, some uninformed famous person's crying and screaming,  a committee voted, a hypothetical movie or some assumption filled computer simulation.

    I would say we are a long ways from being at that point.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    devassocx
    11/18/2008
    Posts:53
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
    • Re: CO2 storing
      We're actually a long way beyond that point. Check all the peer reviewed scientific data that is published. Welcome to 2008.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      kells
      11/18/2008
      Posts:1
      Avg Rating:
      3/5
      • Re: CO2 storing
        Kells, You're the one who's wrong; along with the IPCC.  The warming is not there.  The hockey stick was proven to be phony.  The temperature measurements from Nasa's Goddard team are suspect; check out Anthony Watt's blog.  Check out more information at co2science.org.  Look at actual scientific papers yourself, and see what is being published.  Don't take my, nor some foolish economics professor says. 

        If the science is settled at all, it's against CO2  induced global warming.  It's the sun that is causing everything, and it's the sun that's been cooling for the last few years as evident by the lack of sun spots.  The last time we had so few, we ended up in the Little Ice Age; check the Maunder Minimum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_minimum)

        We've been warmer and cooler in the past long before man-made CO2 emissions came in to play, and  the Sun was the only major factor that was in play. 

        Now, if you said, we shouldn't burn coal, or fossil fuels in general, because of everything else that is released into the atmosphere besides CO2, then I'd agree with you.  What happened to everyone caring about Acid Rain?  That hasn't gone away, and yet people stopped talking about it.  Mercury is getting into fish from primarily coal sources.  VOC's are getting into the air triggering asthma, check the South Bronx of my NYC, from burning trash and fossil fuels.  No, CO2 is not a problem, but, again, the other stuff is.  Forget this draconian, and increadably wasteful Carbon-Trading crap, and let's just have some tax incentives for alternatives.  Some more clean air rules, again not for CO2, but for the VOCs and such, would be good too.  If you live in NY, as I do, you can buy your power, at a cost premium, from cleaner sources.  I do, and I suggest you do the same.

        Rate this comment: 12345

        hador_nyc
        11/18/2008
        Posts:4
        Avg Rating:
        3/5
        • Re: CO2 storing
          A superb encapsulation of the heart of many studies refuting the need for co2 storage. I find it hard to believe that such an impractical solution to a contrived non-problem exists in this day and age.
          Rate this comment: 12345

          pkassoc1
          11/19/2008
          Posts:1
          Avg Rating:
          3/5
          • Re: CO2 storing
            Well said.  I am concerned about the implementation of wide scale carbon sequestration.  It seems like it could end up being mad science that could have huge unforseen consequences.  All in the name of trying to deal a gas that animals exhale and plants require to live and that was once already in the atmosphere, long ago.  In my opinion, any carbon sequestration efforts should focus on consuming the CO2 with plants or algae that can then produce biofuels and thereby replace an equal quantity of petroleum fuels...seems more natural than putting mass quantities of stuff in the ground and hope nothing bad happens later.
            Rate this comment: 12345

            rollsplit
            11/26/2008
            Posts:5
            Avg Rating:
            2/5
    • Re: CO2 storing
      There are over 1000 peer reviewed articles(even from oil company) climatologists, geologists, historical data from ice core samples, all are conclusive- human activity with fossil fuels, and ecosystem disruption  have effected global climate a deliterious way. It is a non issue- please drop this argument you are making your self look bad-  read for yourself!! Welcome to the new world. Work with us or get out of the way. 
      Rate this comment: 12345

      mitoo321
      11/24/2008
      Posts:1
      Avg Rating:
      2/5
  • show all variables
    When comparing coal to solar, are you including the cost of batteries and battery disposal?
    You must have something to get you through the night.  If you want ZERO foot print, show it all.
    Greenies worry about nuclear waste disposal, CO2 disposal, but miss Lithium.
    Are we expected to user less, like Jimmy Carter said. (LOSER)  Do you expect China and India to leave its people in neolithic villages?  Who are you to say you deserve better than they?
    A solution has to include a better quality of life for the whole world.  Not just a lower one for americans.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    SirLanse
    11/18/2008
    Posts:42
    Avg Rating:
    4/5
  • old king coal
    By the US Department of Energy's last calculations, there are an estimated 998 billion tons of known recoverable coal deposits around the world. And, as repulsive as the thought of using it is to a growing majority of people worried about the noxious emissions it produces in the combustion process, and the immediate effects that those emissions have on global warming, approximately 40% of the worlds electrical energy production still comes from its use. A perfect example is that 68.7% of China's electricity, which it is using to transform itself from an ancient agrarian society into an industrialized nation, as England once did, comes from burning it. The DOE's figures also reveal that there are anywhere from 147 to 300 years worth of retrievable coal reserves available versus the estimated 40 to 60 years worth of the known accessible oil and gas fields which can be developed. I'd say, that given those sort of numbers, and as repulsive as the thought of using coal to empower the worlds machinery is to an old Luddite like me, the odds are that as long as we can still dig COAL out of the ground, we will be using COAL to supply our energy needs for some time to come.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    phoenix
    11/18/2008
    Posts:172
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • Clean Coal
    I would be among the first to agree that the world can not continue increasing the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration for the next hundred years or longer.  Call it Global Warming, an Ice Age, Climate Change, or whatever – significantly altering nature will have an impact and the odds favor a disruptive change more than a beneficial one. 

    That said it is only fair to tell people what carbon management or limiting CO2 emission might cost if mitigating actions begin soon and advance on a timely path forward. 

    While the possibility of an abrupt negative event can not be eliminated, the odds again do seem to favor longer-term, slow shifts in atmospheric, ocean and terrestrial environments. I would suggest that we need to act now to manage our carbon emissions and that there is time to spread the costs and avoid damage to the US and world economy.

    The “cost per ton” (be it CO2 or carbon, metric or English) is the primary value widely published and I hazard to say that the number has zero meaning to 99% of the readers. 
    Cost estimates to remove and geologically store a ton of CO2 from coal or natural gas combustion range from $50 to $150 and up, with optimists pursuing targets of $10 to $20 per ton.  The US emits some 6 billion tons per year from all sources.  These types of numbers do nothing to explain carbon management impacts on individuals.

    To simplify, let’s limit the remaining discussion to electric power generation, which accounts for about half of the US total emission and where large plants are tempting carbon management targets.

    Be it CO2 capture and storage, substitution with renewable or nuclear energy, or other options, reducing power plant emission will, as a minimum, roughly double the cost of power generation.  That does not mean a doubling of cost for the consumer since generation is only about half of the total electricity cost with distribution and taxes being the rest.  So if your electricity bill is $100 without carbon management, it increases to $150 with carbon management.  That’s easiest impact to estimate and understand. 

    Similar to recent petroleum market events, rising electricity costs will also inflate the costs and prices for a loaf of bread or an automobile.  Unfortunately, things get terribly complicated attempting to estimate the full costs for an individual.  Even avoiding discussions of good versus evil environmental issues, it is hard to arrive at a number without a lot of work and computer time.  That said, let’s go ahead and make a case and hope it is a useful example.  The numbers in the case are mostly from 2002 Census Bureau data, liberally rounded in the calculations.

    To start, take a car priced at $30,000.  Manufacturing costs are about half of this, and materials (steel, copper, aluminum, plastics, glass and such) account for 80% of manufacturing with 20% for labor.  (The other half of the $30,000 is overhead, sales and profit.)  In 2002 the auto industry spent about $60 billion on materials, including $200 million for electric power.  About 4.5 million cars were produced so the unit cost for all materials is $13,300 and electricity would be $45 per car.   With carbon management the cost for electricity per car would be $67.

    The costs for the materials will increase as their suppliers’ electric power bill rises.  Steel is an example; the iron and steel mill industry used some $30 billion of materials and about $2 billion of purchased electric power, making electricity 7% of their material cost.  After the mills, the steel needs to be formed into sheets, rods, etc.  For the automobile case let’s say the steel material cost increases 10% with carbon management resulting in an 8% total steel cost increase. 

    Then with a consultant’s “all else equal” leap of faith, suppose the other material costs follow this trend and go up by 8% or $4.8 billion from the $60 billion automobile base. The increase is $1,070 per car, or with the added $22 power cost about $1,100 per car.  Return to our $30,000 car; if the non-material costs do not change, the total carbon management effect from increased power generation costs is less than 4%. 

    Yes, there are still difficult issues of global competition and implementing carbon management for world-wide sources, and yes there will be winners and losers.  But if the power generation example is close to reality, even with the expensive and inefficient carbon management technologies available to us, the move to near zero CO2 from power generation will not bankrupt the industry, the country or individuals.

    As a sanity-check, if the carbon management cost impact is tripled, then the car price increases by 11%.  As any change to the power generation system incorporating carbon management is going to take tens of years, the impact still seems to fit nicely into a small or medium breadbox.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    JDRUBY
    11/18/2008
    Posts:15
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • Profitable Sequestration
    The extraction of CO2 in coal-fired industrial settings and its sequestration for agricultural applications, processes which are essentially mature and profitable without calling on new technologies, make profitable use of CO2 emissions while assisting in restoring depleted soils.

    MIT, Cornell, University of Georgia and the U of Maryland are all in varying degrees pursuing the commercial application of biochar techniques, some of which are shown to enhance the synthesis of biochar products while simultaneously acting as efficient industrial emissions scrubbers.

    Tech Review has done its own reporting on the subject area, but these authors, to say nothing of the speakers at various symposia, seem not to be aware of one another.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    burnside
    11/20/2008
    Posts:7
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
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