Thursday, September 18, 2008
The complexity of quantitative analysis is accelerating financial turmoil.
By Will Knight
The chaos engulfing the world's financial markets is remarkable
in its severity and complexity. The latest stage has seen the collapse of Lehman
Brothers, the sale of
Merrill Lynch, and the Fed stepping in to rescue
insurance giant AIG with an $85 billion loan. Today, the world's central
banks pumped
in $180 billion in cash in an effort to resuscitate the global money
markets.
As financial turmoil accelerates, it is worth rereading The Blow-Up
(requires free registration), an article that we ran in November 2007 examining
the way that quantitative
analysis contributed to the credit crisis that has gradually deepened ever
since.
Much of what's happening currently connects back to this:
the application of incredibly complex mathematical and statistical techniques
to financial markets. An article
in yesterday's Financial Times highlights
how the failure of mathematical modeling to accurately foresee market behavior
is now exposing even seemingly safe institutions such as AIG to the wider credit mess:
On a wider level, AIG
failed to see how the fate of supersenior [pools of debt previously
considered safe] could be linked to
behaviour in other parts of the financial world. For what has made the price
falls so vicious this year is that all the institutions that had previously
piled this "boring" supersenior on their books have needed to sell at once. Hence
the development of a vicious, downward spiral.
These institutions can hardly be blamed. This morning I
spoke with Jiang
Wang, a professor at the Laboratory
for Financial Engineering at MIT's Sloan School of Management. He says that
the models used by big financial institutions simply aren't engineered to cope
with the kind of severe conditions we are now seeing:
"Quantitative models/tools have served finance well at the
micro level, such as valuation techniques, trading strategies, and specific
risk analysis and product design. However, they are not at the level of capturing system wide risks and
dynamics, and not intended to be. Much
more work and data are needed here."
Unfortunately, as the
situation worsens, it becomes even harder to predict what will happen next.
Comments
Answer was something along the line of Las Vegas was pure statistical gambling (i.e game of chance) and, therefore, investing was better and safer because our Superb mind gets in the loop and therefore can make better educated decision.
Well, our mind may make better odds however, from all the human elements that contributed to this meltdown; I can see that our mind can really really screw up things order of magnitude worse, too.
Might have been much better for everyone involved if we were rolling dice, at least you know statistical gambling has known outcome over the long run.
JoseSmith
09/19/2008
Posts:2
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html
billcockeril...
09/19/2008
Posts:1
z0rr0
09/22/2008
Posts:48
Financial institutions make financial decisions based on information. On the same issue you cite "The Blow-Up" there is also a view (I believe to remember) of a defender of analysis of markets and institutions not based on numerical models but on more experimented criticism and personal a personal approach to the collection of knowledge to every particular entity. By every measure, it is clear to me (and it was also 3 years ago when I decided to quit the Real State market) that most if not all the Real State assets where hugely overpriced; regardless of the models you choose to evaluate them.
Truth is that defenders of liberalism must also defend all the possible approaches to conduct activities in a capital market. The bail-out announced yesterday by the Fed and the Treasury of the United States just undermines all of a sudden the approach to the capital markets that careful and personal analysis provides. By rescuing the high-risk takers from their mistakes after ripping huge-benefits from their high-risk activities, the Fed, the Treasury and ultimately the Government of the United States are Blowing-Up the fundamentals of free capital markets.
The only reason why this can be happening is because the United States is under a panic situation and elections are just around the corner. Probably it would be a political suicide for any of the two candidates to announce a policy of not intervention in face of the situation at hand.
But make no mistake. In the world where I live in, and I know of no other, every action has a consequence. And the actions made by bad investors, ignorant buyers, and totally immoral bankers must bring consequences. It would be foolish to think that those consequences will simply disappear under a cloud of smoke. By any means, the messages being sent the last weeks by the economic authorities of the United States are very significant. They are prizing bad actions, which equals to punishing what have proved as correct approaches. And both United States citizens and the rest of the world will take good note on that.
If the Government of the United States is taking actions to prevent the entities responsible of all the present situation from bearing the consequences of their actions, is equivalent to transferring those consequences to other players. Will those be the United States citizens? I don't think so. As has happened many times in history, where development and wealth has been attained at the cost and sacrifice of foreign nations, supported by military dominance, it should come at no one's surprise that the United States exercises that power once more. So it is not that hard to predict what will come next: Actions have Consequences, and Responsibilities must be Born.
pa_ubach
09/20/2008
Posts:1
One year later: Financial Engineers: Masters of the Universe or Sorcerer's Apprentices?
This T/R article led off with:
"This summer [2007], as a meltdown in the subprime credit market spilled over into other markets, all eyes were on the mathematically trained financial engineers known as "quants." Who are these guys?"
Today, I suspect that many investors would like to know "Where are these guys, and what are they doing now to help with the financial crisis they may have unleashed - perhaps inadvertently?"
We should have known that something bad was afoot financially when the article said:
"No one quite knew why, yet, but the market's odd behavior would turn out to be closely linked to the work of the quants. In addition to creating arcane financial products, quants have been pushing the frontiers of computer-driven trading systems, and not enough of those systems were working the way they were supposed to--or, to put it more precisely, the way they were supposed to work turned out to be counterproductive in volatile times like these."
and
"Another related explanation for the August [2007] downturn was that the quants' models simply ceased to reflect reality as market conditions abruptly changed. "
UPDATED ARTICLE PLEASE
It would be beneficial for T/R to publish an updated article to the 2007 Nov/Dec "Blow Up" on quants and their methods. Some suggested focus areas:
1] How is the ongoing sub-prime loan crisis a textbook example of the laws of unintended consequences?
2] How does one account for plain old human greed and avarice even when using the most complicated math on the planet?
3] Why were worst case options [e.g., that the mortgages so neatly stacked, racked, sorted and diced into derivatives were quite rotten right from the start] not considered?
4] What are the effects on the Markets of many independent [or in some cases redundant] "black box algorithms" running concurrently?
Cheers
rexromani
09/22/2008
Posts:2
To my U.S. Government representative:
Please DECLARE VICTORY with your Save America Plan for the American economy! Please STOP the lunacy that is the proposed $700 billion Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees!
You have a choice.
You had the foresight to insure the stability of the U.S. financial system, and to insure the safety of deposit and investment accounts in banks, savings and loans, credit unions, and brokerages up to reasonable levels by establishing the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), NCUA (National Credit Union Administration), and SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation). You gave the FDIC and NCUA the power to use the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government to do this for banks, savings and loans, and credit unions.
You also have allowed the Federal Reserve to grease the wheels of the credit markets by accepting high risk debt as collateral for short term loans.
Please declare victory via your Save America Plan and focus your efforts on enabling the FDIC, NCUA, SIPC, and Federal Reserve to do what they do even better, instead of focusing your efforts on the duplicative, excessive, and THIEVING Paulnankebush (Paulson/Bernanke/Bush) Global Financial Investors and Employees Bailout.
Your Save America Plan is a much better solution than the proposed Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees because:
* Your Save America Plan injects cash into the financial system through multiple vehicles, reestablishing the flow of credit.
* Your Save America Plan insures the market value of deposit and investment accounts up to reasonable levels.
* Your Save America Plan takes MUCH less money from American taxpayers than the thieving Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees.
* Your Save America Plan keeps inflation manageable. You would create runaway inflation if you support the excessive Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees, making Americans poorer on Day 1 as the prices skyrocket for gas, food, and all goods and services that are imported, have any imported component, or use oil and gas in their creation or distribution.
* Your Save America Plan GUARANTEES repayment of deposit account insurance claims to American taxpayers whereas the thieving Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees does not. Financial institutions will repay FDIC/NCUA insurance claims through increased risk-based insurance premiums, whereas your support for the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees would be a gamble on a new U.S. government agency buying low and selling high. If (more likely when) when you lose that gamble, you will force the American taxpayers to foot the cost of the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees forever.
* Your Save America Plan moves deposit and investment accounts to financial institutions whose management teams are so STRONG that they didn't cause themselves to fail by taking too much risk. We desperately need these kinds of better managed next-generation financial companies in the American economy. If you support the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees, you will leave deposit and investment accounts in financial institutions whose management teams are so WEAK that they caused themselves to fail by taking too much risk.
* Your Save America Plan prices and disposes of the toxic wastes that are the bad loans/debt and their derivatives. The FDIC/NCUA/SIPC have been successfully selling bad loans/debt and their derivatives for years, whereas you would entrust a new and inexperienced (at least in working together) team to do this with the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees.
* Your Save America Plan enables housing prices to fall to sustainable levels. Homeowners in trouble can sign their house over to the mortgage holder, rent for a while, and then buy a new home when housing prices fall to sustainable levels. Yes, they lost their current gamble on owning a home that they FREELY CHOSE to buy and often refinance at inflated prices via mortgage and home equity loans/lines, but they are much more likely to be in a winning gamble when they buy a new home at a much lower price. Your support for the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees would just make homeowners wait longer for housing prices to fall to the same sustainable level, at which point they could buy a new home.
* Your Save America Plan puts the losses where they belong...with the people, funds, and companies -- U.S. and FOREIGN -- that FREELY CHOSE to invest in, and/or work for, financial companies. The same thing happened with the dot com bust and other burst bubbles where nobody bailed out the investors and employees. This is the way it should be. The investors and employees made the gamble in anticipation of making huge profits and/or enormous wages; they deserve to take the profit when the gamble succeeds…and the loss when the gamble fails. On the contrary, the losers in the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees are the American taxpayers who you -- acting as THIEVES -- would force to transfer their wealth to the people, funds, and companies -- U.S. and foreign -- that FREELY CHOSE to invest in, and/or work for, financial companies.
* Your Save America plan keeps the responsibility and accountability where it has a successful track record, with the FDIC, NCUA, SIPC, and Federal Reserve. Your support for the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees would place the blame on your shoulders, and unchecked power in the hands of a Treasury with strong ties to Wall Street and much less experience resolving such a crisis.
Instead of focusing your efforts on the thieving Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees, please focus your efforts on improving your Save America Plan by taking these actions:
* Nationalize the SIPC so that like the FDIC and NCUA it's backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government, with financial companies paying risk-based premiums so that it too has a net cost of $0 to American taxpayers over medium term time horizons.
* Nationalize and make permanent the one year money market insurance plan so that like the FDIC and NCUA it's backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government, with financial companies paying risk-based premiums so that it too has a net cost of $0 to American taxpayers over medium term time horizons. Make it a responsibility of FDIC or NCUA, rather than creating a new government agency.
* Establish controls over the Federal Reserve so that it does not sneak the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees past the rest of the U.S. Government by making short term loans that are too large relative to the low value of the high risk debt it accepts as collateral.
* Ensure the FDIC, NCUA, SIPC, money market insurance plan, and Federal Reserve are able to obtain the temporary peak resources they need to handle the crisis.
* Encourage financial companies to cut their dividends to preserve capital, and raise the interest rates they offer to attract capital.
* To reduce panic, educate -- through a single unified campaign -- deposit and investment account holders about their FDIC, NCUA, SIPC, and money market insurance rights.
* To increase Americans' wealth, educate homeowners who are in trouble to 1) renegotiate their mortgages and home equity loans/lines and 2) if the mortgage holders are unwilling to renegotiate, to sign their house over to the mortgage holder, rent for a while, and then buy a new home when housing prices fall to sustainable levels.
* To increase Americans' wealth, educate investors in poorly managed financial companies to sell their holdings, take their losses, and reinvest what they have left...diversified across some combination of deposit accounts, money market funds, bonds, stocks, real estate, small businesses, etc.
You have an historic CHOICE now.
* You can SUPPORT and strengthen the Save America Plan you've already created. You'll go down in history as one of the WISE people who had the foresight mitigate a crisis nearing the scope of the Great Depression WITHOUT stealing from the American taxpayers to give to the people, funds, and companies -- U.S. and foreign -- that freely chose to invest in, and/or work for, financial companies.
* You can UNDERMINE the Save America Plan you've already created and instead support the Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees. You'll go down in history as a THIEF made the crisis worse by stealing from the American taxpayers -- who can ill afford it -- to give to the people, funds, and companies -- U.S. and foreign -- that freely chose to invest in, and/or work for, financial companies. You'll also go down in history as one of the people who made the crisis worse by crippling American taxpayers financially at the very moment the American economy could least afford it.
I understand that I will suffer pain from this crisis, just like almost everyone else living in the U.S. It's inevitable. I freely chose to own a home via a mortgage. I freely chose to invest some money in financial companies. I freely chose to be part of the American economy. I am accountable for my decisions and their consequences.
However, I am NOT accountable for the decisions and consequences made by investors and employees of financial companies, who made their own free choices. They are!
Now, you have a choice. I will hold you accountable for your choice and its consequences. If you support the thieving Paulnankebush Bailout of Global Financial Investors and Employees, I will vote against you and your party in the November election and I will similarly work to have you fired if you are an appointed, rather than elected, official.
I am urging my family, friends, colleagues, and fellow citizens across the nation to do the same.
It's your choice.
dmartin
09/28/2008
Posts:2
TogetherinPa...
09/30/2008
Posts:2
This is our last chance.
Visit http://ImMad.net to stop the passage of the Great Bailout right now!
Then spread the word to as many people as you can right away.
dmartin
09/29/2008
Posts:2
Here is a beautiful article by George Dyson that is truly one of the clearest examples of the current problems with complexity theory especially its relationship to economics , what it is trying to do and what it actually did with the mess created on wall street it should make every every CTO and CEO sit up and shudder.
Basically the credit models created by complexity science geniuses, that are the foundation of most high flying arbitrage financial houses, created there own version of reality that had very little relevance to the real world. These same geniuses made enormous amounts of money by designing this fake world and convincing there neophyte non tech masters they should be paid millions for its discovery conveniently forgetting that its roots were firmly built in fiction Someone shouts the Emperor has no clothes and presto the whole house comes tumbling down
The FBI is also apparently digging into this cesspool so expect to see a large number of these bright software phds entering federal prison in the not to distant future
It also has relevance to the scary statement by Janet Wing at the institute when she said that future computer models need not be grounded in reality but could create there own.
Think also on the connection that not only are these complex models non verifiable but so are most databases and agent modeling systems. Without easy verifiability I would submit they are worse than
useless
As Dyson points out the tally sticks " stocks" that where used in the 13th century are far superior to the billions of dollars of hardware and software used today. A stick " Stock " lived in the real world and was verifiable at the lowest level of inspection. Sadly today our complex system have proved to be totally non verifiable with the associated collapse of trust.
Its also a stark example to our 1st mile friends about the higher relevance of what goes into the pipe rather than the pipe itself and why hi speed verification of what is happening in the real world is so much more important
The quicker we realize that the raison d'etre of the digital world is to improve the quality of life and include some moral directives in our work based in reality the more we will be able to sleep at night
Now will every QUANT or suido financial engineer kindly turn themselves in to the FBI and save us all a bunch of work
( : ( : pete
--
Peter Baston
IDEAS
www.ideapete.com
ideapete
10/01/2008
Posts:1