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Oil Is Still Cheap

Even with oil prices soaring, by some estimates, they're still short of historic highs.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
By Kevin Bullis

High oil prices are supposed to get people to use less, yet oil consumption continues to rise in many places. That could be because oil really isn't as expensive as it's been in the past, according to some ways of looking at it. A recent article in the Economist says that because Western consumers' incomes have risen considerably over the past few decades, oil prices would need to top $134 a barrel to have the same impact as prices in 1981. The price of oil was a mere $119 a barrel yesterday.

Comments

  • [no subject]
    zig158 on 04/24/2008 at 1:12 AM
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    Give it 6 months, then it will be up to your $134
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Oil needs to be cheap for the economy to work
    danimiller on 04/24/2008 at 2:59 AM
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    The whole economy functions on cheap oil to be able to transfer goods cheaply so it doesn't affect the U.S. economy deliberately by limiting production. If people cannot see this they are either blind to the truth or haven't studied the situation correctly. China is cooperating with the saudies and deliberately buying unneeded amounts of oil to bring the price up and strangle the U.S. economy. Because everthing is further away in the U.S. they consume much more oil. The high price of natural gas is also strangling the economy because it is used for heating, 90%of fertlizers, powering electric gas stations and trucks powered by liquified.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Oil needs to be cheap for the economy to work
      z0rr0 on 04/24/2008 at 9:40 AM
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      Oil needs to be expensive for Government to work ! About half of every dollar is TAX, federal or state. Vote the incumbents out, get the right people in, and cut the price by half. An aside, Europe pays $5-6 per gallon, and in the major cities, the rush hour traffic rivals NYC. Psychologically, we haven't maxed out yet - behavior hasn't changed.
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Oil needs to be cheap for the economy to work
      ChuckInReno on 04/28/2008 at 2:03 AM
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      I suppose that depends on what you mean, when you say "for the economy to work". If you mean the economy of consumer spending, cheap goods from China, then yes, cheap oil is required for that. We should have a debate about what constitutes a good economy, i.e., quality of living. I'm pretty sure it's closer related to education, health care, rather than big cheap TVs. But, that's a conversation for a different day...

      However, we certainly haven't had cheap oil in a long time, if you include all the costs you and I are paying. Estimates vary, but it's safe to say that the US government subsidizes the cost of oil imported from the Persian Gulf to the tune of $1 - $2 per gallon.
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • If Oil is a Bargain ...
    MakeSense on 04/24/2008 at 11:35 AM
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    If oil is such a bargain, then coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids, which are profitable at $50 a barrel, ought to be just what we need. Seriously, let's get started on some alternatives.

    There's something much different today than back in the OPEC-induced crisis of yore. We import 75% of our crude oil consumption (30 Quads out of 40 Quads or so). Back in the 1970s, we imported about 30%. This means that high prices impact our trade deficit to a much greater extent than back in those perfectly acceptable days of gas rationing, locks on gas caps and lines for miles at filling stations.

    It's funny that people say in effect, "Oil isn't quite as expensive as it was in the days of oil Hell." What's the take away from a statement like that? Kevin, you're awesome, but I think this is bad news, not glass-half-full news. Maybe you had to experience those days as I did to realize that they were anything but normal times.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: If Oil is a Bargain ...
      Kevin Bullis on 04/29/2008 at 5:01 PM
      Technology Review TR Staff
      Nanotechnology and Materials Science Editor
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      In so many ways oil isn't a bargain. That includes the trade deficit you mentioned as well as environmental, military, and political costs. And I'm sure people who have no alternatives to buying gas to get to work don't think its a bargain either, especially the poor for whom gasoline is a big chunk of their income.

      The blog is just pointing out one of the reasons people continue to pay for oil largely from other countries. There are other reasons, too, such as people living far from work and having no choice. Even if prices reach historic highs, many people will have to keep paying.

      What's the solution? How will people come to use less gasoline? I don't know. One interesting proposal is to increase gas prices still further with taxes, and then take that money to help those who can't afford the gas, to invest in the development of gasoline alternatives, and to promote changes to American cities so that people can live closer to work.

       
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      • Re: If Oil is a Bargain ...
        MakeSense on 05/09/2008 at 1:13 PM
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        Raising taxes and prices would probably not fly politically, but I think that a federally mandated oil price floor would encourage development of alternatives.

        If we want to import far less oil, then we have to anticipate that success will bring lower oil prices. If oil could not be bought or sold for less than say $55/bbl, then companies that could potentially impact oil imports would not have to fear their own success, a la lower oil prices. If the international oil price fell below the minimum price, the resulting tariff would go to the government.
        Rate this comment: 12345

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