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Thursday, May 17, 2007

Potential Market for Plug-in Hybrids

Consumers want them--once they know what they are.

A new study shows that when consumers understand what plug-in hybrids are, they want them. The vehicles, which have large onboard batteries, can be recharged overnight by plugging them in, storing enough electricity to power daily commutes. For longer distances, a gasoline engine kicks in, assisting the electric motor and recharging the battery. The major automakers do not yet offer plug-in hybrids, but several are developing them. For those consumers who can't wait, a handful of companies offer conversion kits for conventional hybrids.

Of the more than 3,000 consumers asked if they would consider buying a "grid-connected hybrid," the term used for plug-in hybrids in the survey, only 24 percent said that they would, according to the survey by Synovate Motoresearch. But when they were told what such a car could do, that figure nearly tripled, to 64 percent. That's well above the percentage of people who would consider buying an ordinary hybrid, like the Toyota Prius, which doesn't have extended battery-powered range. Scott Miller, the CEO of Synovate Motoresearch, presented the survey's results this week at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference in Long Beach, CA.

The results suggest that consumers like the idea of the plug-in hybrid--but that so far, car companies are doing a lousy job of getting the word out. That's not the case with flex-fuel vehicles, though. These cars, which can burn either gasoline or a mixture of 85 percent ethanol, scored high on the desirability charts--that is, until consumers were told more about them. Flex-fuel vehicles have been the subject of heavy promotion by automakers. But the marketing campaigns have fallen short of providing all the details: consumers thought that flex-fuel improved fuel economy, Miller said. Actually, the opposite is true. Ethanol contains much less energy than gasoline does, so miles per gallon will be significantly lower, as will range on a tank of gas. When consumers were told this, the percentage of people who would consider buying the cars dropped from 52 to 33 percent.

It remains to be seen if the desirability of plug-ins is enough to overcome their steep price tag. They could cost thousands of dollars more than a conventional hybrid, which already comes at a premium. Still, consumers are willing to shell out thousands of dollars more for SUVs than for minivans because of their perceived advantages. So if the word gets out and the cars get built, plug-ins might just be the next big thing.

Comments

  • Birdbrained article
      I read this article with astonishment. It claims that automaker shave pushed E85 vehicles but not plug-in hybrids. Gee, perhaps the fact that none have found a suitable battery for a plug-in might provide a small obstacle. Do you think? The aftermarket plug-in conversions are pure junk - they start off by emptying your bank account by $12,000 and in return procide a lousy
    all-electric range guaranteed to be less than 25 miles (often less than 15). On top of that, the batteries last less than 5 years and oh, by the way, your warranty is also voided. The economics
    is not in your favor - your cents per mile costs go way up and you will have done next to nothing
    in helping reduce emissions. What more could anyone ask for?
      So why would anyone complain about a company advertising a product that they don't even sell?
       GM will sell one in 2010. Whether Toyota and Honda, Nissan and Mazda will have one by then is somewhat uncertain, but they will all have one
    around that time frame. Everyone, like me, who's interested in a real, factory backed plug-in
    already is well aware of the Chevy VOLT We know what it looks like and how much it will cost and what it's all-electric range will be. There have been 10,000 articles describing the VOLT. I'd say that an awful lot of people are aware of plug-ins,
    even if none are currently available. So what's the big hurry to clue in the entire public about cars 3 years off? Stupid article, really stupid.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    theBike45
    05/17/2007
    Posts:15
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
    • Re: Birdbrained article
      There is a workable battery out there.

      Toyota made Rav-4 EV's (in answer to the CARB mandate) in the late 90's using a NiMH battery made by a joint Toyota-Panasonic venture. These Rav-4's...conversions if you will, as they were not designed ground up as EV's...get 80-120 miles on a charge, and many battery packs are still going strong after 100,000 miles.

      But Toyota was sued by a company called Cobasys (owned by CHEVRON) for patent infringement, and the suit was settled out of court, with details held secret and Toyota-Panasonic unable to produce more of the batteries.

      And Cobasys won't release it's batteries to the general public (which would allow the backyard EV to PERFORM), but they will sell to the US Army for it's hybrids ( http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2007/05/15/047804.html ).

      The supposed need/wait for lithium-ion is another stalling tactic by GM. Why? EV's and serial hybrids have next to zilch parts that need regular maintenance or replacing!

      Say what you will, you cannot deny the FACT that these RAV-4's exist, and they WORK! There's one near me, and this guy blows by my 3.8L V6 Taurus.

      Here's a link showing a Rav-4 EV with a range extending trailer/generator, making it a serial hybrid. http://www.evnut.com/rav_longranger.htm

      And no, it's nickel-cadmium batteries that are toxic disasters, not NiMH.

      Wake up America.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      e1p1
      05/21/2007
      Posts:1
    • Re: Birdbrained article
      The only thing birdbrained about the article is that the auto manufacturers did not start using this technology in 2003.  Their excuse for not building more battery electric vehicles in 1999-2003 under the CARB mandate was the issue of range.  The serial plug-in hybrid is the obvious upgrade to the BEV and NiMH batteries are the only type proven to last longer than the rest of the car.  Lithium batteries have a calander life issue I do not believe anyone will be able to overcome.  I do not believe the Chevy Volt will ever be made.  It is a PR stunt to try and overcome the damage to the GM reputation caused by the movie "Who Killed The Electric Car."  If they intended to build the Volt, GM would build it using the existing NiMH batteries and upgrade later IF the calander life issue with lithium batteries is ever solved.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      willdryden
      05/21/2007
      Posts:1
  • $10,000,000 X Prize
    There just never seems to be just the right place to post this information.

    Series Hybrid Drive Design

    History

    In 1971 I started to Design the Hybrid drive system for automobiles, which will be Powered by an Electric Motor, and an onboard generator powered by the engine, with electrical energy storage in capacitors and batteries.
    This  will give us a Cleaner Environment and we will use less fuel for transportation.
    The power generating engine for Hybrid vehicles would use gasoline and alcohol as fuel. The car would not need to be plugged in to charge it up,  the capacitors and batteries would be charged when you drive it, the same way vehicles used today keep their batteries charged during operation.
    You would be able to get your fuel from any gas station as before with a nice benefit.
    It would be possible to get over 100 MPG and the environment would be much cleaner because you would use less fuel to travel the same distances you do now and your operating costs would be cut by three quarters. 

    Time To Take Action

    The question on many peoples minds today is;  "How can I cut my operating costs and reduce the impact on the environment without having to buy a small compact car."
    The answer to this question is to power all cars with a Series Hybrid Drive System.
    It is time to move forward in the design and function of the automobile, we must leave the old technology behind.
    Big high torque engines are old fashioned, out dated, and very costly to operate.
    We need a modern powered car, we should be applying the technology that was invented over one hundred years ago in a different more practical and efficient way.
    That technology is available now and it must be used if we are to continue to be the world leaders of innovation.
    The technology has changed and if we don’t change with it, we will be left behind.
    A modern automobile whether it is a car, truck, bus, or any other means of transportation does not require any more extra power in operation than enough to keep the batteries fully charged and ready for an increased power demand such as in starting from a stop, hill climbing and passing on highways.
    A simple physics fact is that it takes a lot less power to keep an object moving once it is moving.
    The initial force of getting it to move from a stop is when the most power is needed, once it is moving it is easy to keep it moving, with less energy.

    This Hybrid Engine is a conventional Internal combustion engine with some changes. 
    There wouldn’t  be a flywheel for one thing.  In its place is a motor, generator that serves two purposes, first as the starter to get the engine started, this will draw power from the batteries, when the engine starts its speed will increase and the starter motor now becomes a generator and it will power up the capacitors and charge the batteries.
    This Hybrid engine would be so clean in operation that the air pump and the catalytic converter would not be needed to clean up the unburned hydrocarbons.
    These things would go the way of carburetors and lower the manufacturing cost.
    The driver can expect to get very good mileage and the performance that is required and expected.
    The engine is very much like today’s conventional engines, except that the performance will be better, the vehicles will be quieter and the infrastructure is already there to supply the fuels.  Automotive grade alcohol fuel costs less than gasoline to produce and can be grown anywhere in the world. ( Since this was first written Ethanol has become available in limited quantities in many parts of the world.) "E85" in USA. Note; there is less energy in alcohol than there is in gasoline so you won’t go as far on a gallon of E85 Ethanol fuel as you would on gasoline.

    The Modern Automobile Engine

    The Electronic Series Hybrid engine is for cars trucks, busses and other forms of  transportation.
    Internal Combustion Engine 4 cylinders, liquid cooled, in line arrangement, four stroke with an optimized displacement for cars. In other vehicles it would be larger , 120 to 144v DC Generator / Starter Motor,  series wound, permanent magnet type, supplies power to the Capacitors, Batteries, and DC Series drive motor it is liquid cooled, with unregulated amperes.
    Drive Motor, 120 to 144 v DC, series type, permanent magnet type, liquid cooled, and air over, for both front and rear wheel driven vehicles.
    Capacitors, 120 to 144 Volts several hundred amperes, located in the rear of the car, either under the back seat or under the trunk, would last for the life of the car or 1,000,000 km.

    Hydrogen as a Power Source Hype

    Hydrogen does not naturally occur and has to be made usually by electrolysis which takes a great deal of electrical power.

    It takes more energy to make Hydrogen than you can realize from using it as a power source.

    Hydrogen is not going to be mass produced within most of our lifetimes, the infrastructures have to be built first, the ordinances have to be passed for parking ventilation and fueling safely and with a very dangerous working pressure of 350 bar .  (In English that term translates into 5075 PSI,  Pounds per Square Inch  pressure at the fueling hose.) Only a highly skilled trained person would be licensed to fill a vehicle’s tank with Hydrogen, you could never have a self service Hydrogen filling station and it takes hours to fill a tank with Hydrogen just to go a short distance.

    The Modern Hybrid engine has been invented and it is very clean to operate, it does not pollute the environment. It uses very little fuel. It will operate on gasoline, and other fuels.
    Automobile grade alcohol can be grown and processed for less cost than gasoline, and it can be grown anywhere year after year, but it should only be made from non food crops or crops specially grown for fuel such as sugar beets and potatoes. Corn as a stock source is not a good choice.
    A big car engine would have an optimized displacement, anything over that would be wasting resources. Larger vehicles like trucks and busses would need more power and everything in their system would be larger, engines , motor, generator capacitors, and batteries. 
    They could be made to any size and could have four, six, or eight cylinder engines connected to the generator.

    I have chosen 120 to 144 V DC for cars for several reasons, one of which is that 120 to 144 V DC will give excellent acceleration to cars and it costs less to make the batteries and capacitors with the required amperes with lower voltage.
    They also would be lighter and require less fuel to carry them around as part of the car all the time.
    A Hybrid engine producing 96  to 120V DC is best for  city vehicles as they have been called, good for city driving but not intended to be used for or comfortable for long freeway trips.
    This is pretty much the way gasoline powered cars are made today, we know that some little cars are fine, in the city, but we wouldn’t want to take a long trip in one.

    100 MPG Series Hybrid Engine

    The Series Hybrid can be used to provide power for any sized car, from the little compact sized car to the big SUV’s and any car, bus, or truck.
    This engine is designed to be run on Gasoline, but E 85, Propane and Natural gas could be used.
    It can run on most fuels and is designed to be the cleanest engine no matter which of these fuels is used.
    The Hybrid Engine was designed to reduce the exhaust emissions that are produced by the motor vehicles and to improve the quality of people’s lives now and future generations with reduced emissions and lower operating costs.
    Gasoline is readily available everywhere, and alcohol could easily be introduced to the infrastructure.
    It is a good fuel too because of the ease of handling and it delivers a good distance traveled between fuel ups. Propane is a clean fuel, although natural-gas is cleaner, and Hydrogen if it ever becomes available, and the cost to produce it can be lowered, and a safe way to handle it could be found, it could be the cleanest energy known. It could be used as a fuel in this engine as well.
    There is a limited availability of natural-gas, and an inexpensive way has to be developed to produce and a safe way to handle Hydrogen first if this is ever to become a source of power in the future but they both have a very short driving range and it takes a long time to fuel up a vehicle with them.
    The Hybrid Engine is an excellent source of heat for heating the car's interior and for supplying heat to the defroster in winter. Electric vehicles don’t have this built in benefit.
    These Series Hybrid vehicles would not have a transmission of any kind either.
    ( This is a substantial cost reducing factor in the manufacturing of a Series Hybrid drive car.)

    There wouldn’t be an expensive inverter in a Series Hybrid drive either since it is not needed when using DC  power, there wouldn’t be any switching back and fourth between DC and AC. ( This also lowers the manufacturing costs substantially and makes it easier for more consumers to buy a Hybrid car).
    It can easily be converted to a "Plug-in Hybrid" as well , if the owner wanted to drive only on electricity.

    (After market, do it yourself project people would love this. It could be a factory option with different electric driving ranges available from 10 to 40 miles at different costs for different ranges and more batteries.)

    In normal operation the engine generates the power, which keeps the capacitors and batteries charged and powers the car.
    The electric motor draws power from the batteries and capacitors when accelerating from a stop and during continuous operation such as passing and going up hills. It will draw power from the DC Series generator and engine when the car is maintaining a constant cruising speed on the highway.

    The capacitors are also fully charged up when slowing down by regenerative breaking since capacitors are charged instantly, while only a small amount of power is recovered during braking with current Parallel Hybrid vehicles as they only store recovered power in their batteries.
    Capacitors and batteries both store electrical energy but under very different conditions.
    It takes a long time to put energy into batteries, while it is instant storage into capacitors.
    The result is a car that can get over 100 miles per gallon that can be produced using current knowledge. The Series Hybrid powered cars could be produced for less cost than the current Automobiles of today and it would produce less  emissions than the current state of the art engines when traveling over the same distances at the same speeds. This is the modern technology that is needed for transportation.

    There is a $10,000,000.00 X Prize for the first person or company that can do this and I want to share the prize money with a person or company who puts up the money. I am looking for the financial backing and it would take me about a year to put it together in a new factory produced car in China, or if done in Canada it would take longer and cost more. I have given you enough information so that you realize that I know how to do this , but not enough information for you to do it without my knowledge and skills. I have not mentioned some important information that is needed to make it happen.

    Keith Tomilson Eng.

    I became an Engineer by Profession In July 1971. I have been Involved in Research and Development of Machinery and Equipment for over Thirty Years.
    The fields that I Specialize in are; Mechanics, Electronics, Thermal Dynamics, Energy Transmission, and Energy Conservation.
    I am familiar with all aspects of company organization from concept to final marketing and public relations. I have experience as CEO and Chairman of the Board, have hired, trained, supervised and organized product development and research schedules. I have experience doing Documented R & D at (British Columbia Research )  at the university of British Columbia in Vancouver, B.C. Canada.
    I am used to taking responsibility and making important decisions.
    Currently I am teaching in a world famous university in China and I will only reply to e mails that are from people who are interested in providing the funding for this project and would like to share the X Prize with me. Include your phone number in the first e mail. I wont supply any technical information on the phone though. This technical information full disclosure will happen only in face to face meetings, after the money is in place and the papers are signed. I will assume the position of responsibility for further development from production to completion.

    Contact:

    keithtomilson@netscape.net
    Rate this comment: 12345

    ProfessorT...
    05/18/2007
    Posts:1
    • Re: $10,000,000 X Prize
      I have been thinking exactly the same thing.  A series hybrid would only need about 80kw from the batteries since the ice will be providing about 25kw.  Also, only 4-5 kwh of energy would be need to be stored for acceleration, so the battery could be much  cheaper.  Getting the power from a light and small battery has been the only problem here, but I think Alterno might have this now.  A very small, constant rpm ICE that shuts off periodically when the battery is full could be a very efficient generator. No throttling would be needed.  I don't think 40% efficiency would be out of the queston, and the engine should by very cheap.
      Rate this comment: 12345

      cjriemer
      05/24/2007
      Posts:1
  • Gas Hog Promotion
    I believe the main reason E-85 is being promoted is because that is what is available in the big gas pigs.  The American auto industry is not interested in promoting or developing anything that even looks like an electric vehicle and the plug in hybrid is too close to something like the EV-1.  A successful car that was yanked away from us.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    Gypsy_EV
    05/21/2007
    Posts:17
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • 150MPG?
    Volkswagen TDIs get 50mpg. Loremo promises 150mpg on a small diesel projected for 2009. Prototypes are running now.

    http://www.loremo.com/index_en.php

    Go to YouTube and type Loremo into search. Helps if you spreken sie deutsch.
    Rate this comment: 12345

    Phineas
    05/23/2007
    Posts:111
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
  • ICE Hybrids
    Why does everyone return to the idea of serial hybrids when pure EVs can now travel 200+ miles per charge? Furthermore, most people drive less than 40 miles per day -with their cars sitting for long periods at work during the day and at night while sleeping. Ergo, why not incorporate a serious effort to capture free solar, as seen at http://www.physicslablh.com/futureDesign.htm during the day and then only plug in when needed at night?
    Rate this comment: 12345

    Dr. Al
    03/11/2008
    Posts:1
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