Delta-V

A New Bubble for the Space Launch Industry?

Iridium boosts SpaceX, but will the industry repeat the boom-and-bust of the 1990s?

Stephen Cass 06/17/2010

  • 4 Comments
Caption: An engineering diagram of one of the 72 satellites Iridium plans to start launching in 2015.
Credit: Iridium Communications.

Fresh off its successful Falcon 9 test flight, Space X has announced a $492 million contract with Iridium Communications to launch Iridium's next generation of communications satellites.

These satellites allows customers to make calls from anywhere in the world. Iridium plans to launch 72 satellites between 2015 and 2017 (66 operational satellites and 6 on-orbit spares), although exactly how many SpaceX will be launching is unknown as Iridium will also be contracting with one or two other launch service providers.

The contract is seen as a huge vote of confidence in newcomer SpaceX, and it is hoped may provide a shot in the arm to the space launch industry in general, which has seen formerly high flyers like Sea Launch fall on hard times.

However, there is a feeling of deja-vu about this. Back in the 1990s, when Iridium was launching its first constellation, it was hoped that a number of competing satellite phone businesses would provide a large customer base that would fuel growth and, thanks to economies of scale, drive down the cost of launching satellites into orbit. It was not to be -- the original company that built the current Iridium constellation, which launched in an incredibly short time of 12 months during 1997 and 1998, quickly went bankrupt. The current owners were able to buy the constellation for a fraction of what it cost to build. Competitors, like GlobalStar, also experienced severe financial problems. In part, the problem was that by the time the talk-anywhere satellites had been financed, designed, built, and orbited, an inexpensive terrestrial cell phone network had expanded, tower by tower, over much of the places humans lived, including places where no-one expected cell-phone networks to flourish, like Africa.

The rosy growth predictions for the satellite launch industry evaporated, leading to years of stagnation. Still, Iridium and GlobalStar have managed to establish viable businesses for travelers either going to truly out of the way places and those who can't or don't want to deal with hooking up to the local cell phone network. Hopefully history will not repeat itself and more stable pattern of growth for the launch industry will emerge this time around, finally helping to drive down the price tag of getting to orbit.

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Gaetano Marano

246 Comments

  • 605 Days Ago
  • 06/18/2010

>>> no risks of "bubbles" >>>

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there is/will be NO risks of financial "bubbles" with the new.space market since it's very small now and could reach one billion per year only in the next 3-5 years

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CoastalRon

52 Comments

  • 605 Days Ago
  • 06/18/2010

A Good Start

The Iridium contract calls out for eight launches over a period of two years, or averaging one launch every three months.  These would be on top of other customer launches SpaceX would be doing, so that's a good production foundation.  They're also launching the Iridium satellites from Vandenberg AFB in California, so that won't affect their Florida operations.

If the contract is cancelled or not funded, it may slow SpaceX down, but it won't cause them to go out of business.  That's good new for the launch industry, in that there is enough business in the commercial world that one contract loss does not put a launch provider out of business.

Just a comment on comparable launch prices.  SpaceX advertises their Falcon 9 for $56M/launch (23,050 lbs to LEO).  ULA has stated that a man-rated Atlas V (21,600 lbs to LEO) would cost $130M/launch.  I don't know the price of an Ariane 5, but you can see that SpaceX has a very compelling service as long as they don't have any technical issues.

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Gaetano Marano

246 Comments

  • 605 Days Ago
  • 06/18/2010

>>> NASA and the oil spill >>>

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Look at this AMAZING SCOOP about how NASA might help BP to quickly STOP the oil spill (in a few days) using an (giant and very strong) External Tank of the Space Shuttle!!!
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http://bit.ly/c8y9GX
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mattgroom

290 Comments

  • 588 Days Ago
  • 07/05/2010

Re: >>> NASA and the oil spill >>>

I wouldnt bother going to the above site address if i were you. Tinyurl and things like this allow malware to propogate in the world.

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Bio

This blog focuses on the nuts-and-bolts of space technology. We're interested in the hardware that's actually going into orbit and beyond. We write about what's involved in building, launching, and operating spacecraft, exploration vehicles, and habitats (and what it takes on the ground to support them) today.

Delta-V is written by Stephen Cass, a senior editor at TR who has covered space technology and exploration for nine years, and Brittany Sauser, a space technology reporter at TR.

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