The aftermath: In both images above, the red band represents debris from the recent Chinese destruction of a satellite. In the top image, the green band represents the orbital path of the International Space Station; in the bottom image, it represents the many low-Earth orbit satellites currently in use.
Dr. Thomas Kelso at CSSI (Center for Space Standards and Innovation)
We may not yet know enough to understand China's intentions.
On January 11, 2007, an aging Chinese Feng Yun 1C polar weather satellite orbiting 865 kilometers above Earth was struck by a kinetic kill vehicle carried on a ballistic missile launched from China's Xichang Space Center. It was a successful antisatellite (ASAT) weapons test that showed that the Chinese could, in the future, knock down U.S. satellites. On February 23, U.S. vice president Dick Cheney responded during a speech in Sydney, Australia, first by noting China's "important role" in the recent treaty with North Korea, then by stressing that "last month's antisatellite test, and China's fast-paced military buildup, are less constructive and are not consistent with China's stated goal of a 'peaceful rise.'"
In fact, what the People's Republic intended with its ASAT demonstration isn't obvious, given contradictory signals that have emerged from China. But one thing is for sure: the Chinese ASAT test is the largest debris-generating event in Earth orbit ever recorded. NORAD has catalogued 917 pieces of debris. Yet that figure represents only what's trackable; NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office estimates that more than 35,000 pieces of debris larger than one centimeter were also created.
Furthermore, analysis by the Center for Space Standards and Innovation (CSSI), in Colorado, just after the Chinese test was first reported showed debris spread from below 200 kilometers up to almost 4,000 kilometers, posing a threat to many operational satellites due to the debris cloud's polar orbit. According to Thomas Kelso at the CSSI, computer modeling predicted that during the week following February 28 there would be 1,033 occasions when a Feng Yun 1C fragment would come within five kilometers of a satellite payload in low-Earth orbit (LEO). "Over any seven-day period, we're now routinely seeing 1,000 to 1,100 conjunctions within five kilometers between the Feng Yun satellite's fragments and payloads in Earth orbit," Kelso says.
Graphics supplied by the CSSI illustrate the possible hazards to other satellites in LEO, including the International Space Station (ISS). The first graphic shows how the ISS passes through the ring of debris at the southern part of its orbit. The second figure shows the larger population of LEO satellites that could also be affected (view graphics). "At CSSI, we have orbital data for 2,792 payloads in Earth orbit," Kelso reports. "Out of that total, 1,866 of these payloads pass through the zone now affected by the debris from the Chinese ASAT test--in other words, that's two-thirds of all payloads in Earth orbit."
USA is building (space) warfare: why?
The first question would be indeed why is the US spending so many billion of dollars in "defense". US is the first country on earth to export its defensive intention all over the world. Neoconservative think-thanks do not hide their intention of hegemony on earth and space, nothing less.
The question, legitimate in my sense, would be to ask why. And why then others, especially the big economic competitors of the US, either because American like what they produce or because it cannot survive without what they produce (oil), or because they would threaten US monetary hegemony on the world, why then others would not rightly feel threatened and devise their own "defense". That is unaccepatble practice for who is not the USA. And not so much because others are often autocratic regimes. What would the pentagon think about Europe building its own defense, I mean, maybe a bit outside NATO?
So the scientific communities might be lamenting on the 2 continents for those debris (by the way it seems obvious after this story that itwill not take long after a space war has started before all telecommunications on earth will be reduced to nothing), the best way for someone not to use a weapon against you is probably not to have the weapon yourself, or maybe to consistently denounce a defensive strategy actually carrying war in many places on earth. What else is left in such a massive imbalance of military capabilities?
Balance of power? Who has more troop outside of its borders?
Re: USA is building (space) warfare: why?
Hey, why do we call developing military attack capability in space "defense" if nobody else is using space "offense"? Seems like a euphamism to make aggression using space-based weapons systems sound somehow justifiable on the part of the US. Aggression is aggression, why not call it what it is?
Re: USA is building (space) warfare: why?
The US military is heavily dependent on satellites. This dependency is likely to become even stronger if current trends continue. Any country wishing to seriously degrade the US’s military advantage will immediately look to our dependency on what are very fragile objects orbiting in predictable orbits which can be reached using available technology. The US, knowing that it has this vulnerability, will try to develop technologies to defend and/or rapidly replace these important assets if attacked.
Since treaties banning capabilities like a countries ability to wage anti-satellite warfare are unverifiable, and while everyone has cheated on treaties some, dictatorships cheat as much as they think they can get away with, an anti-satellite warfare capability treaty would be pointless, perhaps foolish. A treaty banning the act of harming another countries satellites would be better. The capability is harmless until there is an intent to use it.
I have not seen this being articulated in any of the websites I have seen on the subject but while LEO is indeed a very sensitive location at least for ISS, has anybody quantified how much of these debris flux would eventually migrate to GEO ? My point is that with debris of similar sizes, collision is likely to produce elements with a large angular deviation and might produce a flux to GEO. GEO would be a problem for everybody not just the ISS or low earth orbit countries.
( http://nuit-blanche.blogspot.com/2007/02/orbiting-debris-leakage-to-geo.html and
http://nuit-blanche.blogspot.com/search/label/space%20debris
)
Igor.
Does anyone really beleve the PLA, responsible for monitoring US LEO spy satellites, didn't know what it was doing by splattering debris all over this polar orbit? Look at the pictures. That polar orbit covers all of China's territory. Indeed, the entire world, as the earth revolves beneath the satellites.
The PLA just denied the US, and anyone else, a prime orbit for monitoring the Chinese military and economic expansion. They have already *enforced* a partial ban on space based weapons. To think this was an oversight dangerously underestimates the Chinese PLA leadership.
I totally agree that this was a strategic move. The debris field makes it hard to operate spy satellites over China. Most civilian satellites operate at lower altitudes, so they are less affected by the debris. But China did shoot itself in the foot, in two ways: 1) The debris will start to come down, and interfere with their civilian operations. 2) This event gives political capital to the hawks in the US administration. Now America will develop very sophisticated space vehicles to stay ahead of the game.
We are in a Cold War with China now. Sad but true.
Most civilian satellites are in higher, not lower, orbits. A plurality, if not majority, of civilian satellites are geosynchronous telecommunications satellites at approximately 22,240 statute mile altitude (35,786 km). Another significant source of civilian satellites are navigation systems, e.g., GPS at 12,600 miles (20,200 km). Users of data from LEO remote sensing satellites will be likely to suffer the main impact of the China's actions.
Guest (VSo)
Right to protect against peeping Tom
Any country has the right to protect herself against "peeping Tom".
Re: Right to protect against peeping Tom
If by "any country" you mean only the USA, then yes you are correct. :P
The article puts this story as the entire issue is exclusively between China and the USA. But this also affects many other nations. The European Union, Russia, India and Japan are probably very unhappy about this too - especially India as the debris field orbits above India, and India would need this orbit for its own operations. Orbits are not owned by any one nation, so this comes off as very rude and inconsiderate on the parts of the Chinese.
So the commies just managed to piss off so many other countries. (America always gets blamed for arrogance.) Who was the arrogant this time?...
just called me, and he is VERY concerned about our debris gap with the Commies. He suggests the US blow up one of its big old satellites to create a US-made debris field. Heck, blow up several -- we'll show the Yellow Red Menace who is boss! The Russians have already countered this move by the Chinese, by assassinating another journalist critical of Putin. The Japanese, worried about losing GPS navigation in their cars, are threatening to put up street signs in Tokyo. We'd better make our move quick! Meanwhile, rebel leader Han Solo complained that this new debris field isn't on any of the charts. "It's not my fault!" he asserted. In contrast, the spokesman for the Indian government is hailing this event as an opportunity for unprecedented cooperation with Pakistan: "We have agreed, in principle, subject to further negotiation, and of course assuming ratification by the parliaments of both countries after a reasonable period for debate, that 'debris' should be pronounced with the accent on the first syllable."
Guest (rhapsodyinglue)
Being an environmentalist I'm very concerned about the implications of all this new debris for both the population of space hawks and space doves. When are we going to start thinking about our extra-atmospheric avian species.
I love it.
A space "9/11".
Without the deaths, shock, horror or immediate consequences.
An all too public wake up call to the value, dependency and vulnerability of wonderful and powerful space technology.
What would the US military need to do, if sitting duck space assets were disabled?
The silver lining to this cloud of debris is it provides an undeniable public warning, as well as the time and opportunity to plan to deal with a clear and demonstrated threat.
The US has the technology in the form of high energy laser systems which can effectively knock out to a higher orbit and or vaporize the larger chunks of debris. It would be interesting to see the results of tests where a technology weapon like a high energy laser was uses in a clean up role.
www.techrd.com
Brian Glassman
Are you scared? You should be.
The Chinese leadership is made of engineers, and other people who are pro-technology and pro-science. You can see how this country developed in leaps and bounds during the last 20 years. It is not a far fetched prognosis to say that within the next 10-15 years they may catch up to us.
And who makes up our leadership? Bible-humping American talibans. People who claim to speak to God. People who are clueless about science, and who are even afraid of it. People who cut science programs, and who threaten government scientists not to talk about inconvenient data.
It does not look good to me. We really need to remove the christian taliban from our government. Otherwise we will be in big trouble.
Re: Are you scared? You should be.
You should both take a second look at who makes up the government.
The sad fact is that we need to find a way to take care of the trash. This will not be the last satellite to be hit. Up until recently there has been relatively little traffic in space. All it takes is a scuffle between two space bound countries to fill orbit with nice shiny moving stars. Has any one considered what might happen if there were a docking accident with the ISS. You could make a debris cloud that is really something to look at!
Kill 3000 Americans and you make the US a little upset. Destroy their satellite TV and you got your self a WAR!
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1 Comment
debris
i just wonder how much of man-made debris around earth ? and who is the biggest producer currently? is it china?
if we really want a peaceful space, any military related activities should be banned by an international treaty. i simply do not think it is fair to critisise others while one is leading in the space military program and is still advancing in this area.
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