Technology Review - Published By MIT
Advertisement
[1] 2 3 Next »

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

The Steve Jobs Show

A look at the speculation running up to next week's Macworld Expo -- where CEO Steve Jobs usually has a few surprises up his sleeve.

By Daniel Turner
smaller text tool iconmedium text tool iconlarger text tool icon

Did Apple Computer invent "buzz" marketing? The point is debatable, but there's no arguing that since the famous "1984" Superbowl ad teaser that led to the surprise unveiling of the first Macintosh personal computer, Apple -- and its once-and-current CEO Steve Jobs -- have made shrewd use of secrecy, hints, and rumors. Combined with Jobs' undeniable flair for showmanship, this philosophy makes the annual Macworld Expo keynote speeches the focus of frenzied speculation and fantasizing.

But does this approach work? Well...we're talking about it, and the expo is still a week away.

Jobs will lift the curtain on Apple's latest products and initiatives at the expo next week in San Francisco. Of course only he knows what's coming in the speech. One certainty, however, is that over the next year, Apple will make a major platform transition, from the IBM- and Freescale-made Power PC processors to CPUs made by Intel, a company once seen by the Mac faithful as an enemy (i.e., Microsoft) sympathizer.

It won't be the first such move Apple has made, though; years ago the company switched to the IBM Power PC from Motorola's 68000-series CPUs, a change that required software developers to retool their products. In addition, Apple's leap from Mac OS 9 to the Unix-based Mac OS X required redevelopment of all software for the Mac -- a process that took major companies such as Microsoft and Adobe years.

Then there's the radical change caused by the introduction of the wildly popular iPod in 2001, which has thrust the company into the consumer product and entertainment world. Chairman Jobs once said he had a vision of Apple becoming the Sony of the computer world. Some have taken this to mean he couldn't wait to get out of the computer business and into content -- witness his other company, Pixar.

Of course Apple representatives are mute about the content of their leader's speech -- leaving the field wide open to rumor and hearsay. Here we present a few of the most credible speculations circulating and try to deconstruct what they mean.

Apple Goes Intel

Jobs first announced the switch to Intel chips last June, at the company's Worldwide Developer Conference. He set no concrete deadlines, stating only that Intel-based Macs would emerge by June 2006, with the entire product line going all-Intel by 2007. But many Apple analysts and news sites covering Apple rumors have noted signs that the first Intel-based Mac could appear much sooner, with a possible announcement next week.

The consensus among professional analysts and other Apple watchers seems to be that the first Mac product with an Intel transplant will be a notebook computer, perhaps an iBook or a PowerBook, or both.

Tim Bajarin, president of Campbell, CA-based Creative Strategies, comes at this judgment deductively: "There's no question that Apple has to refresh its laptop products." Despite a late-2005 minor bump to the iBooks and PowerBooks, he notes, Apple's notebooks have been stagnating in performance overall, even as Windows-based notebooks have grown faster and more feature-filled.

[1] 2 3 Next »

Comments

  • Waiting for Pro software for Intel Mac?
    Guest (Bob Chandler) on 01/04/2006 at 12:22 PM
    Posts:
    1
    Most professional Mac users (Designers, video producers, etc.) are pretty happy with current G5 Macs. I think the early adopters will be consumer PC switchers. They are already comfortable with Intel and dont need the pro apps. If the price is right, this could be very big for Apple.
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Go AAPL
    Guest (tom barta) on 01/04/2006 at 12:26 PM
    Posts:
    1
    I am a 1981 grad of MIT, and all I can say is &quotgo Steve&quot. Microsoft has ruled the roost with its awful, insecure, inelegant products for way too long. Apples dismaiisal of Jobs in 1984 under John Sculley will rank as one of the worst tech decisions of all time (along with Time Warner acquiring AOL and Palm, Inc. splitting into two warring factions). Apple is FINALLY recovering from that long Steve-less period.
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Only Slightly Inaccurate...
    Guest (john halbig) on 01/04/2006 at 7:21 PM
    Posts:
    1
    Actually, current software WILL &quotjust work&quot, much as 68K based programs could run on the newer PPC processors, and most OS 9 based software worked using &quotclassic&quot mode. Rosetta is the code name for this neat trick, and yes, Ive seen it in action. Sure, you get the usual emulation hit, but thats on FASTER processors. Ive seen situations where applications ran more quickly on an Intel based Mac than on the average iMac G5 cranking at 2 Ghz.

    And yes, that includes PhotoShop and MS Office. Theres also the potential for running Windows apps WITHOUT the emulation hit that make current x86 emulators (like Virtual PC)truly horrific to use.

    John....
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Only Slightly Inaccurate
      Guest (Dan Turner) on 01/04/2006 at 9:14 PM
      Posts:
      1
      John, you are right about Rosetta being transparent (the speed hit is real, according to developers, though it hasnt been quantified). However, no one has been able to confirm yet that Rosetta will support AltiVec the last confirmed specs state OS X on Intel will support, through Rosetta, emulating up to a G3 processor. Theres also the issue of plug ins: If you get a Universal Binary version of Photoshop, for example, whenever thats available, you need to update all your plug ins at the same time. That is, you can run the Intel version of the app, but not with Power PC versions of the plug ins, and vice versa. For professionals, who often rely on customized plug ins for workflow solutions, everyone has to be on board for it to work.

      Thanks for the note!
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Only Slightly Inaccurate
      Guest (Dan Turner) on 01/04/2006 at 9:14 PM
      Posts:
      1
      John, you are right about Rosetta being transparent (the speed hit is real, according to developers, though it hasnt been quantified). However, no one has been able to confirm yet that Rosetta will support AltiVec the last confirmed specs state OS X on Intel will support, through Rosetta, emulating up to a G3 processor. Theres also the issue of plug ins: If you get a Universal Binary version of Photoshop, for example, whenever thats available, you need to update all your plug ins at the same time. That is, you can run the Intel version of the app, but not with Power PC versions of the plug ins, and vice versa. For professionals, who often rely on customized plug ins for workflow solutions, everyone has to be on board for it to work.

      Thanks for the note!
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • Hi Def movie store on the way...
    Guest (KenC) on 01/06/2006 at 6:36 AM
    Posts:
    1
    This press release proves it:

    http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=105456

    Thats a press release that Apple has sued Burst. A little company with some key patents on streaming media tech. This means that what Bob Cringely, at PBS, said was true, if Apple wants to open a streaming movie store, it needs to license from Burst, and apparently it has been in negotiation.

    As for streaming movie trailers, FR doesnt show what bitrate theyre using but its clear that they are below DVD quality. If you go to their movie trailer website:

    http://www.apple.com/trailers/

    Youll see they have about 30 HD trailers. This is a much better indication of whether Apple can stream movies. Ive looked and 480p movies will need a streaming rate of 2Mbps. This is doable on a stable moderately quick cable modem. Add some buffering time, perhaps 15mins, while you pop the popcorn, and you should have no trouble with a 480p movie stream.
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Waiting for Pro software for Intel Mac?
    Guest (Bob Chandler) on 01/04/2006 at 12:22 PM
    Posts:
    1
    Most professional Mac users (Designers, video producers, etc.) are pretty happy with current G5 Macs. I think the early adopters will be consumer PC switchers. They are already comfortable with Intel and dont need the pro apps. If the price is right, this could be very big for Apple.
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Go AAPL
    Guest (tom barta) on 01/04/2006 at 12:26 PM
    Posts:
    1
    I am a 1981 grad of MIT, and all I can say is &quotgo Steve&quot. Microsoft has ruled the roost with its awful, insecure, inelegant products for way too long. Apples dismaiisal of Jobs in 1984 under John Sculley will rank as one of the worst tech decisions of all time (along with Time Warner acquiring AOL and Palm, Inc. splitting into two warring factions). Apple is FINALLY recovering from that long Steve-less period.
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Only Slightly Inaccurate...
    Guest (john halbig) on 01/04/2006 at 7:21 PM
    Posts:
    1
    Actually, current software WILL &quotjust work&quot, much as 68K based programs could run on the newer PPC processors, and most OS 9 based software worked using &quotclassic&quot mode. Rosetta is the code name for this neat trick, and yes, Ive seen it in action. Sure, you get the usual emulation hit, but thats on FASTER processors. Ive seen situations where applications ran more quickly on an Intel based Mac than on the average iMac G5 cranking at 2 Ghz.

    And yes, that includes PhotoShop and MS Office. Theres also the potential for running Windows apps WITHOUT the emulation hit that make current x86 emulators (like Virtual PC)truly horrific to use.

    John....
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Hi Def movie store on the way...
    Guest (KenC) on 01/06/2006 at 6:36 AM
    Posts:
    1
    This press release proves it:

    http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=105456

    Thats a press release that Apple has sued Burst. A little company with some key patents on streaming media tech. This means that what Bob Cringely, at PBS, said was true, if Apple wants to open a streaming movie store, it needs to license from Burst, and apparently it has been in negotiation.

    As for streaming movie trailers, FR doesnt show what bitrate theyre using but its clear that they are below DVD quality. If you go to their movie trailer website:

    http://www.apple.com/trailers/

    Youll see they have about 30 HD trailers. This is a much better indication of whether Apple can stream movies. Ive looked and 480p movies will need a streaming rate of 2Mbps. This is doable on a stable moderately quick cable modem. Add some buffering time, perhaps 15mins, while you pop the popcorn, and you should have no trouble with a 480p movie stream.
    Rate this comment: 12345
Add New Thread

Related Articles
Advertisement

Current Issue

Technology Review January/February 2009
Lifeline for Renewable Power
Without a radically expanded and smarter electrical grid, wind and solar will remain niche power sources.
•  Subscribe
Save 41%
•  Table of Contents
•  MIT News

Magazine Services

•  Gift Subscription
•  Digital Subscription
•  Reprints, Back Issues, Customer Service

Career Resources

Visit the Job Board and Resource Center to move your career to the next level.

MIT Technology Insider

Stories and breaking news from inside MIT about the latest research, innovations, and startups--in a convenient monthly e-newsletter. Subscribe today
Advertisement

Follow us on Twitter

Twitter

Get Technology Review updates via the web, cellphone, or Instant Messager – Follow techreview on Twitter!
Advertisement

More Technology News from Forbes

Wire Stories

Advertisement
Advertisement
TECHNOLOGY RESOURCES
Advertisement
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology