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Thursday, January 04, 2007

Part I: China's Coal Future

Continued from page 1

By Peter Fairley

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In contrast, large-scale efforts to produce liquid transportation fuels using coal gasification are well under way. China's largest coal firm, Shenhua Group, plans to start up the country's first coal-to-fuels plant in 2007 or early 2008, in the world's most ambitious application of coal liquefaction since World War II. Shenhua plans to operate eight liquefaction plants by 2020, producing, in total, more than 30 million tons of synthetic oil annually--enough to displace more than 10 percent of China's projected oil imports.

China's progress in constructing coal-conversion plants puts it far ahead of the United States, where coal gasification is still recovering from a damaged reputation. Gasification demonstration programs initiated in the U.S. after the energy crises of the 1970s were orphaned when oil and gas prices plummeted in the 1980s. That left many with the impression that the technology itself was unreliable (see "Carbon Dioxide for Sale," July 2005). In China, by contrast, oil never looked cheap, and coal has never lost its shine.

Coal and Cashmere

Northern China is fast becoming the epicenter of China's energy industry. The leading draw is the Shenfu Dongsheng coalfield, a 31,000-square-kilometer solid layer of shallow coal that stretches from the northern tip of China's Shaanxi Province to the southern edge of Nei Mongol, or Inner Mongolia. The Dongsheng field's estimated reserve of 223.6 billion tons of coal makes it the world's seventh largest; efforts to convert much of that coal to transportation fuels could make it the world's most profitable.

Until recently, Inner Mongolia's coal capital, Erdos, was largely untouched by the modern world, bounded by mountain ranges and the Great Wall to the south and by the Yellow River to the north. Its isolation is now over, thanks to freshly poured highways and new rail lines rolling over its fissured hills and steep valleys. An airport should open this year.

Erdos's GDP doubled between 2001 and 2004, largely because of coal, chemicals, and cashmere (Erdos supplies a quarter of the world's cashmere). To reach the coalfields, you drive 40 minutes south of the city, passing a 1950s-era mausoleum for Genghis Khan, the 13th-century warrior who conquered much of Asia. As you approach the dry floodplain of the Wulanmulun River, the imposing infrastructure of a dozen coal mines, including some of the world's largest and most mechanized, leaps out of the barren landscape. The region is also home to several hundred smaller, less modern mines (gases and cave-ins kill at least 6,000 Chinese coal miners a year). Miners on their day off zip by on mopeds, three or four to a vehicle, racing past 40-ton trucks heaped with coal. Along the highway, coal-­sorting terminals load railcars destined for power plants and ports on the industrialized east coast.

None of that infrastructure and activity, however, prepares a visitor for Shenhua's coal-to-fuels complex, which rises from a plateau cut into the hills. It is an impressive site, with its own coal-fired power plant, gasification plants, and two massive reactors where coal will be liquefied, each weighing 2,250 metric tons (Shenhua claimed the world hoisting record when it lifted the reactors into place last June). Flush from a $2.95 billion IPO in 2005 and $5 billion in annual revenues from its integrated mines, railroads, and power plants, Shenhua is rapidly expanding its operations. It sold 113 million metric tons of coal in just the first half of 2006, nearly matching the previous year's total. If Shenhua maintains that pace this year, it may become the world's largest producer of coal.

January/February 2007

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Comments

  • Undermining American foreign policy
    gabrielg01 on 01/04/2007 at 1:48 PM
    Posts:
    317
    Avg Rating:
    3/5
    China's development of coal-based fuels, as an alternative to oil is a clear case of outsmarting American power politics.

    America's increasing presence and domination in the Middle East and Central Asia is driven by the goal to project economic power all over the world. Today we have military bases even in the formerly Soviet states of Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kirgyzstan). Check this link out:
    http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2002/020209-attack01.htm
    The point is that even if the USA is not reliant on this oil, these oil reserves represent such a gigantic value that dominating them gives America the economic power levers to the world economy. Or so the assumption goes.

    This assumption is being challenged, and possibly proven wrong today. Brasil is shifting to ethanol (several South American countries will follow suit), and China is shifting to liquefied coal. Europe will shift to liquefied coal too, when they get fed up with the Russian bullying and blackmailing. Nuclear power will see a new renaissance as well. There will be a convergence of green technologies too: much improved batteries, fuel-cells, photovoltaic and windpower. All this will lead to increased independence from the oil-bullies.

    The oil-bullies of the world, OPEC, America and Russia will be left with much diminished economic domination. As for us Americans, we will never get our money's worth out of these oil-adventures. The oil and military barons will get rich of course, but the rest of us will see no benefit.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Undermining American foreign policy
      jpdemers on 01/05/2007 at 2:10 AM
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      34
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      4/5
      China's gain is not necessarily our loss.

      The US has coal reserves rivaling those of China.  We will no doubt follow China's lead and build our own gasification plants -- I don't see that we even have a choice. 
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • America is an oil bully?
      badspine on 01/19/2007 at 2:59 PM
      Posts:
      1
      America is an oil bully? When did this happen? Apparantly between causing global warming, causing people to starve all over the world, and causing EVERY OTHER SINGLE problem in the world, now we're an oil bully too. Sounds like another cheesy rallying cry for America bashers.

      I did a project on Fischer Trospch (Ft) fuels for my grad school and many aspects of Ft fuels would be great for America. One of the major problems with adopting these fuels is environmental regulations (according to some environmentalists / alarmists, the Ft process for creating fuel causes as much polution as burning natural fossil fuels) and the threat of Saudi Arabia and OPEC crushing the oil market by lowering oil prices dramatically (look up a company called syntek (I think thats the spelling) in the 1980s.

      There are backers that are very interested in pursuing Ft fuels. Recently, the CEO of Jet Blue Airlines contacted General Electric about this idea. GE was too afraid to pursue this technology, due to Saudi Arabia and OPEC's ability to effect oil prices. The only way American companies would build Ft plants is if the United States government promised to buy the fuel if the price / barrel (PPB) dropped below a certain point. However, certain groups would proclaim this as government welfare for oil companies. So, despite being an excellent idea, Ft fuels may not be seen being produced in America anytime soon.

      China is a different story altogether. They really have no social conscious and no special interest groups to deal with. They just do whatever is necessary to move along. For example, they don't respect copyright laws, do business readily with countries that don't respect child labor laws, etc. In many ways adopting a dramatic shift in energy production is much easier in China than the U.S. In particular, the U.S. can't even drill for oil in its own territory, let alone pursue new courses of fuel production because of environmental concerns (but yet, we're oil bullies).
      Rate this comment: 12345
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