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Friday, June 23, 2006

Large-Scale, Cheap Solar Electricity

A well-financed California startup is promising to build a solar-cell factory that could finally make solar power affordable.

By Kevin Bullis

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Part of a solar-cell printing machine in Nanosolar’s pilot manufacturing plant. The technology might make solar power competitive with electricity from the grid. (Courtesy of Nanosolar.)

This week, Nanosolar, a startup in Palo Alto, CA, announced plans to build a production facility with the capacity to make enough solar cells annually to generate 430 megawatts. This output would represent a substantial portion of the worldwide production of solar energy.

According to Nanosolar's CEO Martin Roscheisen, the company will be able to produce solar cells much less expensively than is done with existing photovoltaics because its new method allows for the mass-production of the devices. In fact, maintains Roscheisen, the company's technology will eventually make solar power cost-competitive with electricity on the power grid.

Nanosolar also announced this week more than $100 million in funding from various sources, including venture firms and government grants. The company was founded in 2001 and first received seed money in 2003 from Google's founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin.

Experts say Nanosolar's ambitious plans for such a large factory are surprising. "It's an extraordinary number," says Ken Zweibel, who heads up thin-film research at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, CO. Most groups building new solar technologies "add maybe 25 or 50 megawatts," he says. "The biggest numbers are closer to 100. So it's a huge number, and it's a huge number in a new technology, so it's doubly unusual. All the [photovoltaics] in the world is 1,700 megawatts."

Today, the lion's share of solar cells are based on crystalline silicon, which is about three to five times too costly to compete with grid electricity, Zweibel says.

Nanosolar's technology involves a thin film of copper, indium, gallium, and selenium (CIGS) that absorbs sunlight and converts it into electricity. The basic technology has been around for decades, but it has proven difficult to produce it reliably and cheaply. Nanosolar has developed a way to make these cells using a printing technology similar to the kind used to print newspapers, rather than expensive vacuum-based methods.

Although the company expects to start selling solar cells next year, ramping up to full production will take more time. Meanwhile, high demand for solar cells worldwide will keep prices high, Roscheisen says. Eventually, however, he says the company hopes to attract more customers with lower prices, in several years reaching prices that make solar-power electricity competitive with the grid.

Zweibel says the company is likely to face challenges in ramping up production, although their pilot manufacturing facility is a big step. And he adds that Nanosolar is not alone in developing inexpensive manufacturing processes for CIGS solar cells, and at least one other company is working with a printing process.

Meanwhile, Andrew Gabor, senior engineer at Evergreen Solar, a silicon solar-cell developer and manufacturer in Marlboro, MA, says current supply problems related to conventional solar cells are easing as more production capacity is coming on line. This could mean that prices for silicon cells start dropping again, eventually becoming competitive with grid electricity. He suggests that in the future solar electricity supply will likely be met by a mix of technologies.

Comments

  • solar power is great
    Guest (J.J.) on 06/23/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    solar power is the way to go, rather than feeding the oil barons.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • The Wireless Battery in the Sky
      Guest (Kevin Krejci) on 06/23/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      Agreed.  Now that the costs are dropping, I expect we should reach the tipping point soon for many applications, and won't have the same old excuse that solar is too expensive.   (Even though I would argue, fossil fuels have been too expensive for many years if you factor in the collateral costs that we all end up paying for.)  I vote for wireless power!
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • Nikola Tesla
        Guest (Aaron) on 06/23/2006 at 12:00 AM
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        1
        Your dream for wireless power distribution is shared by my science hero, Nikola Tesla. Wireless power would truly be wonderful! Until that time, I will be happy to purchase solar cells if they're cost effective and get off the grid.
        Rate this comment: 12345
        • get  mad
          Guest (paul) on 07/16/2006 at 12:00 AM
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          Aron, you said "I will be happy" to purchase solar cells IF they are cost effective and get off the grid. I know this sounds logical . However, the pressure of WW2 ( right wing nuts ) forced those in power( and people with powerful minds ) in the US to put great resorces at hand . I would hope some in power now want to move forward ,Bush and his buddies, don't look to helpful. I think we need to fund this revolution in power by everyone working and investing above and beyond what they normaly would. I beleive the abilty of the US to move forward when it comes to energy is key to our succes. Investing your mind and helping others to do so  now may change our future and help remove some of the power from the few.
          Rate this comment: 12345
          • Very good post
            Guest (Patrick) on 07/27/2006 at 12:00 AM
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            1
            Education is very important here.  For when you educate someone about the benefits of renewable energies, they will in turn be impressed and educate someone else.

            Great work here ladies and gentlemen.
            Rate this comment: 12345
          • Re: get  mad
            CarlG on 07/06/2007 at 10:33 AM
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            Why would you care which party is in office to determine to buy solar or not.  When solar is as cheap as other methods of creating electricty, people will buy it.  Keep politics out of it.
            Rate this comment: 12345
    • Erm-
      Guest (Don) on 06/23/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      1
      Little power in this country is generated from oil. Most of our power plants burn coal and for good reason- we have huge coal reserves
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • [no subject]
        Guest (Nick) on 06/24/2006 at 12:00 AM
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        even better - coal generates more CO2 per unit of electricity than oil!
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • Solar cells
      Guest (NJC) on 07/05/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      Aside from the oil baron issue - and my pension relies on companies making profit -the main driver for solar PV is carbon offset. At present PV is the most expensive way of offsetting carbon so unless costs come down substantially PV is not the future. We need to get a decent carbon return for the money we invest so wind, wave and ocean current, carbon capture and storage all have a brighter future
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: solar power is great
      oconnellt on 01/31/2007 at 6:22 AM
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      5/5
      I agree solar power is an expellant alternative to fossil fuels, but I think nuclear power is the way to go for the next 30 years or so (until solar power and other alternates are made cheaper)
      Read this web page for some enlightenment.
      http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/energy-fuels/dn9984
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • Incubation of clean technologies
    Guest (Dr.Rajendra Jagdale) on 06/24/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    We are loacted in India and anybody having promising technology in the area of clean technology or energy would be very happy to incubate such company in India. Call: +91-20-25693449 Pune
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Incubation
      Guest (Sachin Tiwari) on 07/03/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      1
      Hello Sir
      Are you specifically looking for incubation of clean energy ideas or other health care related ideas will also be considered??
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • incubation.
      Guest (Sachin Tiwari) on 07/03/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      1
      You may wish to get back at tiwarisac@gmail.com
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Economic Solar
      Guest (Phil Connor) on 07/25/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      Dr Jagdale,
      Please look at www.sunengy.com This is a new technology ideal for India (and most other places).
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • Re: Economic Solar
        vvv111 on 09/10/2008 at 5:16 PM
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        5
        We are  planning to setup a PV module assembling plant. I'm looking
        for help in preparing the business plan. If you could help me in finding
        right people to prepare business plan is greatly appreciated.
        Rate this comment: 12345
  • Black Silicon
    Guest (Erich J. Knight) on 06/24/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    Hi All:

    This looks to be low cost and scaleable for silicon PV chips,

    Black silicon http://mazur-www.harvard.edu/research/detailspage.php?rowid=1

    But because of how tunable the process is, makes  my mind is swim on all the other potential applications.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Black Silicon
      vvv111 on 09/10/2008 at 5:15 PM
      Posts:
      5
      We are  planning to setup a PV module assembling plant. I'm looking
      for help in preparing the business plan. If you could help me in finding
      right people to prepare business plan is greatly appreciated.
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • I wonder
    Guest (freedom) on 06/24/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    1
    how many people are going to need to be enslaved in Africa to mine the materials necessary for all these solar panels.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • I wonder
      Guest (Dr. Evil) on 06/29/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      Fewer than you'd think.  Most of our slaves are abducted from Santa Monica and Santa Cruz.  After we work them to death, we dissolve their bodies in a proprietary enzyme bath and recover nutrients in the form of a green, wafer-like material which we feed to the other slaves.  It's not half bad, either. 
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • I Wonder
        Guest (Minnie Me) on 07/04/2006 at 12:00 AM
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        Great answer, Dr. Evil.  I personally like my soylent green with mayo.
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • I wonder
      Guest (Mike) on 07/25/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      None.  Silicon is readily available from countries that meet ILO standards such as Australia.  Other materials much the same.
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • Math Question
    Guest (Wondering) on 06/25/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    The cost comparisons (i.e., "three to five times too costly to compete with grid electricity" etc.) are unclear since the cost of grid power is monthly but solar is a one-time purchase. Are they saying the cost of an X kwh panel is 3 to 5 times the MONTHLY cost of X kwh, the ANNUAL cost of X kwh, or the cost of total kwh produced over the lifetime of the panel, etc?
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Grid vs. Solar
      Guest (Leon) on 06/25/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      1
      I have thoughts and dreams of energy independent living. I could 
      install about twenty, 100 watt solar panels on my house, however after taking out a mortage to pay for it montly and comparing it with the monthly cost of energy from the grid and taking into account my solar system may need to be replaced by a more effecient system in 10 years, as much as I would love to get off the grid and go solar..... after calculating the cost I am going to have to wait a bit longer for my solar powered dream home.
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • Grid vs. Solar
        Guest (Franz Kocijan) on 06/25/2006 at 12:00 AM
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        1
        We are living now since almost twenty years entirely off the grid on solar power. We have no wasteful plasma tv screen (an ordinary CRT may be replaced by a LCD in due time)or electric air conditioning. We have virtually all modern amenities including power tools (small mill and lathe included)together with an complete electronics workshop to make a living.
        Stop biting your nails or seek  excuses why it is not viable. Set honest priorities and the risk instead of letting others do the dirty work for you.
        But for heavens sake stop that squabbling. 
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • Math Question
      Guest (George) on 06/29/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      1
      A good question.  Economists have developed formulas for determining the value of a quantity of money at some point in the future, or determining the present value of an income stream of a specified money/time.  These are called "future value" and "present value" calculations.  There are lots of such calculators on the web.  In order for a solar installation to break even economically, the present value of the money saved over grid power per month has to be more than the cost of the solar rig.  To be fair you should also put a value on such things as greenhouse gas and pollution avoided, space used by batteries, pain of neighbors thinking you are a geek, value of hot babe wanting to go out with you because you are so green... These things are called externalities by economists.  They are usually hard to put a number on and are usually ignored, sometimes leading to bad decisions.
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • Math Question
        Guest (Scott) on 07/01/2006 at 12:00 AM
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        1
        I WANT my neighbors to think I'm a geek - that's a bonus!
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • Math question
      Guest (Douglas Hvistendahl) on 07/02/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      1
      I've been working with solar heat which is viable now. In particular, search ("self heating" AND building) In PV, a combination of electrical and heat output is what I want. Solarwall reports 70% total efficiency with their combined setup, if the need for heat is there. Using annualzed geo solar storage allows summer heat to be used in the winter in a one or two story building. Voila!!!
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Answer to "Math Question"
      Guest (Bobby) on 07/02/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      They are talking the total cost, over the lifetime of the system, compared to the grid.  As one poster noted, this is more complicated than it sounds because we have to figure spending a lot for a solar system upfront vs paying for the grid supplied elecricity month by month.  Current accepted ballpark is solar PV is 3 times as expensive as the grid. 
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • Defraying the cost: Standard Offer Contract
        Guest (George) on 07/25/2006 at 12:00 AM
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        In Ontario, they are planning to start what is called a "Standard Offer Contract".  The Province buys back power from the consumer/generator and the property owner can get a loan against the 20 year provincial buy-back contract.  This is already working in Germany
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • Solar Cost Question
      Guest (Amos) on 07/26/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      I have been trying to go into the solar business for years and the cost has been the prohibitive factor. Granted, over the life of the system, Solar can be cheaper, but instantaneous cost is so high that only very few can afford. The same reason why people take loans even if they end up paying higher. So, saying the cost at the long run is cheaper is not enough, it must also be affording today.
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • Re: Solar Cost Question
        networker on 01/17/2007 at 7:56 AM
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        The answer lies in renting the units from a company like Citizenre. They will absorb the costs of the production, installation, and maintenance. They only charge you by your kilowatt-hour production which is based on the average rate of your local utility. With net-metering, your solar generator plugs into the grid and your meter runs backwards in the day--you withdraw your daily surplus "deposit" at night. See http://solarforyourhome.com for more details.
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Math Question
      globalweb on 09/03/2007 at 11:38 PM
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      Does anyone know approximately how many watts would be outputted in a single day from a 10'x 10' fixed CIGS solar array on a flat roof on a sunny, cloudless day in the US sun belt.  If I know the answer to this, I can calculate the ROI and determine whether it is cost effective.
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Math Question
      burnside on 09/12/2007 at 2:28 PM
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      I agree the cost comparisons are not sufficiently transparent. In a real-world application, a St. Petersburg environmental attorney installed a solar array this past spring - a dozen Sanyo panels - bringing his on-grid power consumption to zero for a relatively large residence. The retail price tag would have been $20,000, but Florida rebates halved that cost.

      My personal consumption averages $100/mo at about 1000KWH. An array suitable for my needs - based on the above example - would be less than $5,000 after the rebate, so costs would remain a factor for the first fifty months, i.e., a little over four years. The array's design life is forty years; it is guaranteed for thirty.

      This leads me to suspect the calculations quoted here and elsewhere are centered on solar-electric efficiencies or some other parameter, but not on residential applications or real-world cost/benefit analysis.

      Next time Tech Review covers one of these breakthrough solar technologies, a little number-crunching (and the methodology) would be most welcome.
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Math Question
      NewUserName on 12/25/2007 at 3:40 PM
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      One Kilo-Watt-Hour (1 kWh) from PG&E costs $0.12; that is what you pay each hour you draw that much current.

      A PV installation (100 square feet of solar panels, inverter, installation) capable of creating one kilo-watt while the sun is directly overhead costs about $8000. Rebates and credits may reduce it to $6000 or $4000 (depending on locality). These figures scale somewhat depending on system size, but some credits are capped. The system gets 5.5 effective hours of sun per day. You get $0.66 worth of electricity each day for your $6000 (more or less) investment.

      It is probably very cost effective compared to oil. Elminate the subsidies (military, environmental & health  care costs) associated with oil, and PV would stand on its own without subsidies.
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • CIGS is the wrong way
    Guest (John) on 06/25/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    $100 million for CIGS? Wow the pickings must be pretty slim for the VCs. We are they going to get all of the Indium or the Gallium for these (even if they are thin films!).

    Silicon devices have mean time to failures measured in decades and efficiencies near 20%. I'd be surprised if these devices lasted 10 years with efficiencies over 5%.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Solar
      Guest (Marco) on 06/26/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      Who is going to clean the muck off the face that blocks the sun rays and brings efficiency down to near zero very quickly. This is one of the oldest scams in the con game.
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • "Muck" on Solar Cells
        Guest (Bob) on 06/28/2006 at 12:00 AM
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        I have used solar cells for over 20 years in South Louisiana, where there is plenty of "muck."
        None of the muck has every coated the cells enough to compromise performance, and my system worked just fine throughout and after  muck-spewing Katrina. Ask the Coast Guard.
        They use Carmanah Solar Beacons (made in Canada) on their buoys throughout the Gulf Coast, and muck doesn't stop the LED's from shining brightly all through the night.  Neither do bird droppings and guano.  Carmanah simply encases the cells and the LED's in curved polycarbonate cases that mucks clings to with difficulty if at all.
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • CIGS breaks the cost record
      Guest (Gen) on 07/12/2006 at 12:00 AM
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      Arithmetic is very simple.
      Take Silicon battery and divide its cost by four (since the In+Ga content in CIGS is one fourth only). Then devide that cost by 50 additionally (since a thickness decreases by 50 times in CIGS film). So, CIGS seems to be competitive in the market, without respect of its efficency (even 10% efficiency will be great ! ).
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • nanosolar
    Guest (brad brown) on 06/26/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    Nanosolars web DOSEN'T list any specs. Usually -no specs =no products , or poor efficiency.
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: nanosolar
      saal@parysproperty.co.za on 01/02/2008 at 3:57 PM
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      It is now beginning of 2008 Can any body tell me whether any nanopanels have been manufactured effectively and at the right price?
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • evergreen
    Guest (shiftingwinds) on 06/27/2006 at 12:00 AM
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    evergreen has been touted for their string ribbon design and is now in the production stage with 2 production facilities.  even if nano gets an impressive design to work, atleast 2 years before its viable.
    Rate this comment: 1