September 24, 2005

The Gulf Coast: A Victim of Global Warming?

Continued from page 2

By Wade Roush

But they were also open to another interpretation. In the blogosphere, everyone from the Democratic Women's Caucus to prophets of impending Apocalypse has latched on to Emanuel's findings as proof that that U.S. leaders are ignoring global warming.

Politicians such as former vice president Al Gore and even scientists such as Sir John Lawton, chairman of the UK's Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, have publicly warned that oceans roiled by global warming will produce more massive storms such as Katrina and Rita.

"Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun," as Sir Lawton told the British press, referring to both Emanuel's finding and the Science paper. "It's a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes."

Since his Nature paper appeared, Emanuel has been in great demand among journalists, policymakers, and other researchers. He says few have pressured him for his opinion on the real hot-button issue in climate change: how much of global warming can be attributed to human activity, and what, if anything, can be done to slow it.

"My experience is that most of the people who call me up, really want to know about the science, what do I really mean," says Emanuel. "Most people, if they have a political agenda, they are good at keeping it hidden."

But then there's the ever-growing commentariat, which answers to no one.

"The people who are politicizing it are doing it behind my back -- pundits writing on blogs or editorials whom I don't actually talk to," says Emanuel. "They don't want to know the truth. They want to use something somebody wrote to advance their agenda."